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SuperContest Week 4 thread: lines Wed./selections Sat./grade it all through weekend)

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  • SuperContest Week 4 thread: lines Wed./selections Sat./grade it all through weekend)



    This is the thread for Week 4 with the leaderboard, lines for the week on Wednesday, then the consensus and selections on Saturday and then grading it all through the weekend. In case you didn't see, the SuperContest Classic drew a record 3,123 this season with the SuperContest Gold attracting 128 (after 94 in the inaugural season).

    Last week, the SuperContest Top 5 went 3-2 iw/ NO, SEA & BAL covering & losses by SF & NE; SuperContestGold Top 5 went 4-1 w/ NO, BAL, MIA & AZ covering & SF losing; for the season, SC Classic Top 5 is 7-8, SC Gold is 8-6-1

    Here is the SuperContest Classic leaderboard from the Westgate website...MAJOR NOTE: there is a $15,000 bonus for the leader after Week 4, so these SuperContestants are in a one-week race for some serious cash (and that includes at least 2 Friends of VFV in Toofdoc & Str8OuttaDurango!!!
    STR8OUTTADURANGO 5 0 0 5 13 2 0 13
    BBMUSICFACTORY 5 0 0 5 13 2 0 13
    SHABOOM 5 0 0 5 13 2 0 13
    TOOFDOC 5 0 0 5 13 2 0 13
    FINALLY 2019 4 1 0 4 13 2 0 13
    SNOOPYANDPRICKLYPETE 5 0 0 5 12 2 1 12.5
    NOTINAGOODMOOD 5 0 0 5 12 2 1 12.5
    LFG CITY 4 1 0 4 12 2 1 12.5
    CLEVTA 4 1 0 4 12 2 1 12.5
    CHOVES 5 0 0 5 12 3 0 12
    SCHIPP SNOOPS 5 0 0 5 12 3 0 12
    FLASH 15 5 0 0 5 12 3 0 12
    CHIEF SKOL 5 0 0 5 12 3 0 12
    PLAY BALL 5 0 0 5 12 3 0 12
    THE AFTERMATT 5 0 0 5 12 3 0 12
    @ SHERIDANREPORT 5 0 0 5 12 3 0 12
    PONCHE 5 0 0 5 12 3 0 12
    BERNIELOMAX6 4 1 0 4 12 3 0 12
    PERSONAL GOURMET 4 1 0 4 12 3 0 12
    JACKIE JONES 4 1 0 4 12 3 0 12
    SLOTHS REVENGE 4 1 0 4 12 3 0 12
    ACTIONSPORTSCENTRAL 4 1 0 4 12 3 0 12
    H2OBOY 3 2 0 3 12 3 0 12
    RICK D 3 2 0 3 12 3 0 12
    SEASON OF SAM 4 1 0 4 11 3 1 11.5
    JOHN CHINNOCK 4 1 0 4 11 3 1 11.5
    SPRINGCO 4 1 0 4 11 3 1 11.5
    JWADD 4 1 0 4 11 3 1 11.5
    ANGEL OF VENGEANCE 4 1 0 4 11 3 1 11.5
    ALCO328 4 1 0 4 11 3 1 11.5
    CASINO BOOGIE 4 1 0 4 11 3 1 11.5
    THTHAMAN 4 1 0 4 11 3 1 11.5
    GAMBLING RATS 3 2 0 3 11 3 1 11.5

    The Gold contest doesn't have a bonus after Week 4, but the race is off to a just as exciting start...and just like last year, it doesn't look like the winner-take-all prize winner will need to hit anywhere near the winning percentage as is going to be required in the 3,123-entry SC Classic:
    4U DOCTOR 5 0 0 5 11 4 0 11
    MVP 4 1 0 4 11 4 0 11
    TRUSTED LINK SPORTS 4 1 0 4 11 4 0 11
    LIGHTNING 2 4 1 0 4 11 4 0 11
    THERE CAN BE ONLY 1 5 0 0 5 10 4 1 10.5
    BETTER ODDS 4 1 0 4 10 4 1 10.5
    AMIRSUFI 3 2 0 3 10 4 1 10.5
    FADEY TOM BRADY GLD 5 0 0 5 10 5 0 10
    WORKMAN WW2 5 0 0 5 10 5 0 10
    SARAHI MILLER 5 0 0 5 10 5 0 10
    BERT EMANUEL RULE 5 0 0 5 10 5 0 10
    HAMMER 3 4 1 0 4 10 5 0 10
    ITS DMILL 4 1 0 4 10 5 0 10
    @PREGAME 4 1 0 4 10 5 0 10
    ZMONEYPICKS.COM(G) 3 2 0 3 10 5 0 10
    JRICH 3 2 0 3 10 5 0 10
    WORCESTER PREP 3 2 0 3 10 5 0 10

  • #2
    Here are the lines for Week 4, locked in by the Westgate on Wednesday afternoon. For those who don't know, the favorite is listed first and then the underdog, followed by the spread in relation to the underdog...also, the numbers to the left of each team are for SuperContestants and their proxies submitting the plays (though it's automated on a kiosk at the Westgate as opposed to the old days when parlay-like cards were used and everyone had to fill in the circles on the correct team number):
    WEEK 4
    THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2018
    1 RAMS* 5:20 PM 2 VIKINGS +7
    SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2018
    3 PATRIOTS* 10:00 AM 4 DOLPHINS +6.5
    5 COLTS* 10:00 AM 6 TEXANS +1
    7 FALCONS* 10:00 AM 8 BENGALS +5
    9 PACKERS* 10:00 AM 10 BILLS +9.5
    11 COWBOYS* 10:00 AM 12 LIONS +3
    13 JAGUARS* 10:00 AM 14 JETS +7.5
    15 BEARS* 10:00 AM 16 BUCCANEERS +3
    17 EAGLES 10:00 AM 18 TITANS* +4
    19 SEAHAWKS 1:05 PM 20 CARDINALS* +3
    21 RAIDERS* 1:05 PM 22 BROWNS +2.5
    23 CHARGERS* 1:25 PM 24 49ERS +10
    25 SAINTS 1:25 PM 26 GIANTS* +3.5
    27 STEELERS* 5:20 PM 28 RAVENS +3
    MONDAY, OCTOBER 01, 2018
    29 CHIEFS 5:15 PM 30 BRONCOS* +5

    Comment


    • #3
      Feels good to get off to a good start, but obviously a long way to go and a lot of work to do.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by str8outtadurango View Post
        Feels good to get off to a good start, but obviously a long way to go and a lot of work to do.
        You're certainly right on both accounts...congrats and GL moving forward (and thanks for popping in here to show everyone you're still here at VFV Nation, though I think most have noticed you're also leading our ViewFromVegas NFL Contest): https://forums.viewfromvegas.com/for...tion-of-glitch).

        Comment


        • #5
          Thanks for all great coverage again Dave. I'm Workman WW2 in my the Gold off to a decent start in both hopefully can keep it going

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by str8outtadurango View Post
            Feels good to get off to a good start, but obviously a long way to go and a lot of work to do.
            Way to go! GL! I've still got you on my Team of the Best SuperContest Cappers over the last 9+ years! Clevta is also on my Team and is also in the money at #9 after 3 weeks.

            Comment


            • #7
              Thanks man, I saw that and think it is real cool that you took the time to put that list together. Hopefully, I am still worthy at the end of the year.

              Comment


              • #8
                Here's the number of times each team selected and broken down into head-to-head matchups that we use to grade the results through the weekend (thanks for correction, barnstorm:

                MIN 413 ***PUSH***
                LAR 201

                Week 4 started with a push on the overall consensus with the Rams winning by exactly 7.

                ====================

                MIA 428
                NE 681 ***WIN***

                HOU 547
                IND 813 ***LOSS as No. 5 MOST-SELECTED TEAM***

                CIN 952 ***WIN as No. 2 MOST-SELECTED TEAM***
                ATL 268

                BUF 231
                GB 405 ***WIN***

                DET 567 ***WIN***
                DAL 488

                NYJ 250
                JAX 455 ***WIN***

                TB 402
                CHI 595 ***WIN***

                PHI 545 ***LOSS***
                TEN 488

                Top 5 Consensus starts week at 1-1 with Bengals cover and Colts loss; overall consensus goes 6-2 in early Sunday game, 6-2-1 for week.

                ====================

                SEA 740 ***PUSH***
                ARI 268

                CLE 376
                OAK 1110 ***WIN as No. 1 MOST-SELECTED TEAM***

                SF 189
                LAC 556 ***LOSS***

                NO 441
                NYG 846 ***LOSS as No. 4 MOST-SELECTED TEAM***

                Top 5 Consensus splits 1-1 again in afternoon game and sits at 2-2 for the week with MNF game pending; overall consensus goes 1-2-1 and dips to 7-4-2 on the week.

                ====================

                BAL 516 ***WIN***
                PIT 407

                Overall consensus improves to 8-4-2 on the week with Ravens' cover.

                ====================

                KC 559
                DEN 863 ***No. 3 MOST-SELECTED TEAM***

                :

                Comment


                • #9
                  Are those consensus selections correct? I'm seeing a whole different set from the Westgate site. Yours may be from last week because they have CAR and WAs and they have byes this week.
                  OAK 1110
                  CIN 952
                  DEN 863
                  NYG 846
                  IND 813
                  SEA 740
                  NE 681
                  CHI 595
                  DET 567
                  KC 559
                  LAC 556
                  HOU 547
                  PHI 545
                  BAL 516
                  DAL 488
                  TEN 488
                  JAX 455
                  NO 441
                  MIA 428
                  MIN 413
                  PIT 407
                  GB 405
                  TB 402
                  CLE 376
                  ARI 268
                  ATL 268
                  NYJ 250
                  BUF 231
                  LAR 201
                  SF 189
                  CAR 0
                  WAS 0

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Actually, I like to figure the Consensus picks by subtracting the number of picks against from the number of picks for. Makes more sense than just the most number of picks. For example, the team with the most picks may have 1,000 picks, but their opponent may have been picked 750 times. Here are this week's consensus picks if you subtract the number of picks against from the number of picks for. Dallas and Seattle replace Denver and Indy.
                    OAK 1110 CLE 376 734
                    CIN 952 ATL 268 684
                    DAL 488 DET 1 487
                    SEA 740 ARI 268 472
                    NYG 846 NO 441 405

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Various picks and records going into Week 4:
                      Place VFV Persons of interest: 1 2 3 4 5 W L T Pts
                      1 STR8OUTTADURANGO MIN CIN CHI PHI SEA 13 2 0 13
                      1 TOOFDOC MIN HOU DAL JAX NYG 13 2 0 13
                      6 CLEVTA HOU CIN GB TEN NYG 12 2 1 12.5
                      34 ROUGHRIDER 39 NE CIN TEN NYG DEN 11 4 0 11
                      96 DURBIFY DAL PHI OAK LAC NYG 10 4 1 10.5
                      96 SQUAREPANTS GB DET JAX ARI DEN 10 4 1 10.5
                      156 VSiN 1 HOU JAX OAK LAC DEN 10 5 0 10
                      425 HOUSEATSAL ATL DAL OAK BAL DEN 9 6 0 9
                      425 FADE MATERIAL HOU JAX TB OAK SF 9 6 0 9
                      425 SANS SOUCI MIA BUF JAX NYG DEN 9 6 0 9
                      300 KELLYINVEGAS NE CIN TEN NYG DEN 9 5 1 9.5
                      995 YYC PTY IND BUF SEA SF NYG 8 7 0 8
                      995 JARHEAD DAL PHI SEA OAK LAC 8 7 0 8
                      777 CH BALLERS HOU JAX CHI OAK NYG 8 6 1 8.5
                      777 ERSPORTS CIN GB DAL CHI DEN 8 6 1 8.5
                      1605 ARMVIN JAX TB OAK PIT DEN 7 8 0 7
                      1605 GOLDEN SOUL IND PHI SEA NO KC 7 8 0 7
                      2041 VSiN 2 MIN HOU DET BAL DEN 6 8 1 6.5
                      2719 @VIEWFROMVEGAS HOU BUF ARI NYG DEN 5 10 0 5
                      2583 BOB LEFLAMBEUR MIN NE HOU GB DAL 5 9 1 5.5
                      Last edited by ComptrBob; 09-30-2018, 11:06 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Barnstorm...we've had this debate many times over the years...and I've usually persuaded those that object to me using the most-selected team (and you'll note I do specify here that I'm ranking the Top 5 as the "Most-Selected Teams" and not "Consensus) instead of using the difference that you propose or the percentage of pickers on each team as others have preferred...or maybe I've just outlived them all LMEAO. Anyway, what usually happens if we discuss it for a few weeks and there ends up being very little difference between the overall records no matter how we arrive at the Top 5 (and often they're they same exact Top 5 anyway)...in addition, I'm mostly doing it to give a representation of how the SuperContestants are doing overall...I'm not suggesting that people follow or fade the Top 5 blindly so we end up splitting hairs on which teams to include when, again, I don't think it matters much (or alters the results to any significant degree).

                        Note: You have Detroit with 1 person picking them; I don't think the actual number there would put DAL in the Top 5. In your revised chart, I think the Chargers (who lost) would replace the Cowboys (who lost) on your list after they replaced the Colts (who lost) on my list.

                        Originally posted by barnstorm View Post
                        Actually, I like to figure the Consensus picks by subtracting the number of picks against from the number of picks for. Makes more sense than just the most number of picks. For example, the team with the most picks may have 1,000 picks, but their opponent may have been picked 750 times. Here are this week's consensus picks if you subtract the number of picks against from the number of picks for. Dallas and Seattle replace Denver and Indy. So, again, I think we end up doing a lot more work to arrive at pretty much the same conclusions IMHO.
                        OAK 1110 CLE 376 734
                        CIN 952 ATL 268 684
                        DAL 488 DET 1 487
                        SEA 740 ARI 268 472
                        NYG 846 NO 441 405

                        Comment


                        • #13

                          Dave [email protected]
                          Unofficially, @ClevTA leads #SuperContest with 16.5 points on record of 16-3-1 but can be passed if SHABOOM (16-3) wins with DEN +5 on #MNF; important note: there's a $15,000 bonus @LVSuperBook for leader after Week 4 (note2: if DEN pushes, they'd collect $7,500 apiece) @VSiNLive


                          And I then Tweeted this update after MNF:


                          Dave [email protected]
                          With DEN covering +5 on #SuperContest line, "SHABOOM" (17-3) takes the lead over ClevTA (16-3-1) and wins the $15,000 "1st Quarter Bonus" through Week 4; There Can Be Only 1 (14-14-2) & Sarahi Miller (15-5) are tied for #SuperContestGold lead w/ 15 points (but no bonus) @VSiNLive

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Oops! Don't know how my DET number got entered as 1. That messed it all up.

                            I agree that doing it either way might end up with about the same record and most times they are going to be pretty much the same.

                            And you are right, we are not advocating that anyone bet real money on or against these picks as these picks are made with, and often because of, static lines. It's more a study of the capping prowess of SuperContest contestants.

                            Thanks!

                            Comment

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