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Line Variance in the SuperContest

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  • Line Variance in the SuperContest

    Does anyone know what the results have been for picking with the Westgate SuperContest Line moves?

    There are always a few picks where the line may move away from the Westgate SuperContest's opening and static lines.

    Does it pay to go with some of those picks if you are in the Contest?

    There may be some trend where it pays to go with the line variance, maybe it's better if it is a Home Dog, Away Dog, Home Fav or Away Fav?

    I'm sure this has been tracked but I've tried a lot of Google searches and can't find what I'm looking for on a search for "SuperContest Line variance."

    Some contrarians say it may be good to go *against* the line moves in the contest because you could pick up a game on a large number of contestants who will go with the line variance. I would think you'd have to be selective there, because why go with every "bad" line?

    Thanks.
    Last edited by barnstorm; 08-31-2018, 08:55 PM.

  • #2
    Line Variance Plays - Week 1
    Pittsburgh -3.5 (was -4.5 at deadline)
    Cincinnati +3 (was +2.5 at deadline)
    Dallas +3 (was +2.5 at deadline)
    Chicago +7.5 (was +7 at deadline)
    Detroit -6.5 (was -7 at deadline)

    ? Houston +6.5 (was +6 at deadline). Not sure that's significant enough line movement to play on?

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    • #3
      So if you went with the line variance as contest picks, you would have gone 2-3. 2-4 if you count Houston.

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      • #4
        Line Variance Picks Week 2

        GB +7 (Rodgers ?. No line at contest deadline)
        Houston PF (Houston -3 at the deadline)
        Pitt -4 (Pitt -5.5 at the deadline)
        New Orleans -8.5 (N.O. -10 at the deadline)
        LA Rams -12.5 (LAR -13.5 at the deadline)
        Denver -6 (Denver -6.5 or -7 at the deadline)

        No real value in betting them with real cash now, but just tracking them for contest picking strategy.

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        • #5
          Line Variance picks went 2-4 in Week 2, making it 4-7 after two weeks or 37%.

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          • #6
            Line Variance Picks Week 3

            Arizona +6 (Arizona +5 at contest deadline)
            Dallas +2 (Dallas +1 at contest deadline)
            Detroit +7 (Detroit +6.5 at contest deadline)

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            • #7
              Line Variance picks went 2-1 yesterday and are now 6-8 after 3 weeks or 43%.

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              • #8
                Line Variance Picks Week 4

                Cincinnati +5 (Cinci was down to +4 at contest deadline)
                Tennessee +4 (Tenny was down to +3.5 at contest deadline)
                Raiders -2.5 (Raiders were up to -3 at contest deadline)
                Chargers -10 (Chargers were up to -10.5 at contest deadline)
                Last edited by barnstorm; 10-02-2018, 10:06 AM.

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                • #9
                  3-1 for Week 4.
                  9-9 or 50% for the year.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Line Variance Picks Week 5

                    NY Giants +7 (NY Giants were down to +6 or +6.5 at contest deadline)
                    Tennessee -3.5 (Tenny was up to -5.5 at contest deadline)
                    Denver +1 (Denver was up to -1 at contest deadline)
                    Detroit +1 (Detroit was up to -1 at contest deadline)
                    Miami +6.5 (Miami was down to +6 at contest deadline)
                    Arizona +4 (Miami was down to +3.5 at contest deadline)
                    LA Rams -7 (LA was up to -7.5 at contest deadline)
                    Houston -3 (Houston was up to -3.5 at contest deadline)
                    Washington +6.5 (Washington was down to +6 at contest deadline)

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                    • #11
                      3-5 for Week 5.
                      12-14 or 46% for the year.

                      Interesting. You would think with just getting an extra half point or more, you would do better than 50%.

                      Has anyone ever seen a stat on going with or against line moves in regular betting?

                      It's one thing to go WITH a line move in regular betting and have to take the higher number, but in the SuperContest one is going with the line move and getting the BETTER number - and it is still trending at under 50%! Sounds like it would be a good thing to FADE the line moves in regular betting and take the better number on the team that the line is moving away from. The tricky thing about line moves is that smart money can move it and so can square money. Right? Or is there a way to figure out which line moves are the result of sharp money and which are the result of square money? That would be the Holy Grail of sports betting!
                      Last edited by barnstorm; 10-10-2018, 08:52 AM.

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                      • #12
                        Line Variance Picks Week 6

                        Chicago -3 (Chicago was up to -4 at contest deadline)
                        Cleveland +1 (Cleveland was up to -1 at contest deadline)
                        Carolina +1 (Carolina was up to -1 at contest deadline)
                        Pittsburgh +2.5 (Pitt was down to +1.5 at contest deadline)
                        Tampa +3.5 (Tampa was down to +3 at contest deadline)
                        Raiders +3 (Raiders were down to +2.5 at contest deadline)
                        Houston -9.5 (Houston was up to -10 at contest deadline)
                        LA Rams -6.5 (LA Rams were up to -7 at contest deadline)
                        Green Bay -9.5 (Green Bay was up to -10 at contest deadline)


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                        • #13
                          Wow. 1-8. Can't even score a winning % with static lines!

                          1-8 for Week 6.
                          13-22 or 37% for the year!

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                          • #14
                            It's one thing to follow or fade a moving line, but one would think taking the best side of a static line would at least be over 50%. 37%?! Wow!

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                            • #15
                              Line Variance Picks Week 7

                              Chicago +3 (Chicago was down to +1.5 at contest deadline)
                              Tampa Bay -3 (Tampa Bay was up to -3.5 at contest deadline)
                              Detroit -2.5 (Detroit was up to -3 at contest deadline)
                              Minnesota -3 (Minnesota was up to -3.5 at contest deadline)
                              Houston +5 (Houston was down to +4 at contest deadline)
                              Carolina +1 (Carolina was up to -1 at contest deadline)
                              Dallas +2 (Dallas was down to +1 or Even at contest deadline)
                              Giants +5.5 (Giants were down to +4 at contest deadline)

                              SF went from +9.5 to +8.5 but I'm not going to count that as a significant line variance. Anything off of 10 I would count and maybe even +9 to +8.

                              Again, the point of this is just to track it for playing the contest. Obviously it doesn't help you with your bets against current lines.

                              I would love to find complete stats on the history of line movement and see how often it pays to follow it, even with the "bad" number, and how often it is better to fade it with the "better" number. I'd like to see it filtered further and see if it is more accurate with Home or Away, Favorite or Dogs. And what numbers are best? +3 to +3.5? -3 to -2.5? I haven't been able to find any historical data on this.

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