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Line Variance in the SuperContest

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  • Line Variance in the SuperContest

    Does anyone know what the results have been for picking with the Westgate SuperContest Line moves?

    There are always a few picks where the line may move away from the Westgate SuperContest's opening and static lines.

    Does it pay to go with some of those picks if you are in the Contest?

    There may be some trend where it pays to go with the line variance, maybe it's better if it is a Home Dog, Away Dog, Home Fav or Away Fav?

    I'm sure this has been tracked but I've tried a lot of Google searches and can't find what I'm looking for on a search for "SuperContest Line variance."

    Some contrarians say it may be good to go *against* the line moves in the contest because you could pick up a game on a large number of contestants who will go with the line variance. I would think you'd have to be selective there, because why go with every "bad" line?

    Thanks.
    Last edited by barnstorm; 08-31-2018, 06:55 PM.

  • #2
    Line Variance Plays - Week 1
    Pittsburgh -3.5 (was -4.5 at deadline)
    Cincinnati +3 (was +2.5 at deadline)
    Dallas +3 (was +2.5 at deadline)
    Chicago +7.5 (was +7 at deadline)
    Detroit -6.5 (was -7 at deadline)

    ? Houston +6.5 (was +6 at deadline). Not sure that's significant enough line movement to play on?

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    • #3
      So if you went with the line variance as contest picks, you would have gone 2-3. 2-4 if you count Houston.

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      • #4
        Line Variance Picks Week 2

        GB +7 (Rodgers ?. No line at contest deadline)
        Houston PF (Houston -3 at the deadline)
        Pitt -4 (Pitt -5.5 at the deadline)
        New Orleans -8.5 (N.O. -10 at the deadline)
        LA Rams -12.5 (LAR -13.5 at the deadline)
        Denver -6 (Denver -6.5 or -7 at the deadline)

        No real value in betting them with real cash now, but just tracking them for contest picking strategy.

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