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Line Variance in the SuperContest

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  • #31
    3-3 for Week 12.

    37-35-1 for the year. 51.2% after 12 weeks.


    Line Variance Picks Week 13
    Tampa Bay +3.5 vs Carolina (Bucs were down to +3.5 at contest deadline)
    Buffalo +4.5 at Miami (Buffalo was down to +3.5 at contest deadline)
    NY Giants +5.5 vs Chicago (Giants were down to +3.5 at contest deadline)

    Comment


    • #32
      3-0 for the week.

      40-35-1 for the year. 53.3%.

      One really bad week, or going with line variance would have been a very good strategy this year. Although, if one went only with the line variance plays, it will never win you the SuperContest, but it's worth playing the ones you really like, or going with one if you just can't decide on your last pick or two.

      Comment


      • #33
        3-0 for the week.

        40-35-1 for the year. 53.3% after 13 weeks.

        Line Variance Picks Week 14
        Baltimore +6.5 at KC (Ravens were down to +6 at contest deadline)
        Cleveland +2.5 vs Carolina (Browns were down to +1 at contest deadline)
        Atlanta +5.5 at Green Bay (Falcons were down to +4 at contest deadline)
        Washington +3.5 vs NY Giants (Washington was down to +3 at contest deadline)
        New Orleans -8 at Tampa Bay (Saints were up to -10 at contest deadline)
        Buffalo -3 vs NY Jets (Bills were up to -4 at contest deadline)
        SF +4.5 vs Denver (Niners were down to +3.5 at contest deadline)
        Minnesota +3.5 at Seattle (Vikings were down to +3 at contest deadline)

        Comment


        • #34
          4-4 for the week.
          44-39-1 for the year.
          54% after 14 weeks.

          Comment


          • #35
            Line Variance Picks Week 15
            Houston -6 at NY Jets (Texans were up to -7 at contest deadline)
            Cleveland +3 at Denver (Browns were down to +1 at contest deadline)
            Minnesota -7 vs Miami (Vikings were up to -7.5 at contest deadline)
            Tennessee +2.5 at NY Giants (Titans were up to -1 favorites at contest deadline)
            Jacksonville -7 vs Washington (Jags were up to -7.5 at contest deadline)
            Atlanta -8.5 vs Arizona (Falcons were up to -10 at contest deadline)
            SF +4.5 vs Seattle (Niners were down to +3.5 at contest deadline)
            LA Rams -11 vs Philadelphia (Rams were up to -13 at contest deadline)
            New Orleans -5.5 at Carolina (Saints were up to -6 at contest deadline)


            Comment


            • #36
              6-3 for last week.
              50-42-1 for the year.
              54.3% after 15 weeks.

              Comment


              • #37
                Line Variance Picks Week 16
                Tennessee -9.5 vs Washington (Titans were up to -11 at contest deadline)
                Baltimore +4.5 at LA Chargers (Ravens were down to +3.5 at contest deadline)

                Carolina +3.5 vs Atlanta (Panthers were down to +3 at contest deadline)
                Jacksonville +4 at Miami (Jags were down to +3.5 at contest deadline)
                Indy -9.5 vs NY Giants (Colts were up to -10 at contest deadline)
                Minnesota -5.5 at Detroit (Vikings were up to -6 at contest deadline)
                Green Bay -2.5 at NY Jets (Packers were up to -3 at contest deadline)
                Cleveland -8.5 vs Cinci (Browns were up to -10 at contest deadline)
                Chicago -4 at SF (Bears were up to -4.5 at contest deadline)
                Seattle +2.5 vs KC (Seahawks were down to +1 at contest deadline)
                Denver -2.5 vs Oakland (Broncos were up to -3 at contest deadline)

                6-4 pending the Denver game tonight.
                ​​​​​​

                Comment


                • #38
                  6-5 for week 16.
                  56-47-1 for the year.
                  54.3% after 16 weeks.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Line Variance Picks Week 17
                    Kansas City -13.5 vs Oakland (Chiefs were up to -14.5 at contest deadline)
                    Carolina +8.5 at New Orleans (Panthers were down to +7 at contest deadline)

                    Philly -6.5 at Washington (Eagles were up to -7 at contest deadline)
                    Atlanta +1 at Tampa Bay (Falcons were up to -2 favs at contest deadline)

                    Buffalo -3.5 vs Miami (Bills were up to -5.5 at contest deadline)
                    Minnesota -4.5 vs Chicago (Vikings were up to -5.5 at contest deadline)
                    LA Rams -10 vs SF (Rams were up to -10.5 at contest deadline)

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      6-1 for Week 17.
                      62-48-1 for the year.
                      56.3% for the full year.

                      Pretty good to just take the line variance plays, but not enough to win any cash!

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Barnstorm, I posted this already but wanted to post it here for you to perhaps see it immediately. Would love your input!

                        Hey VFV! Long time watcher, 1st time poster here.

                        So! I have 2 parlays riding on 2 college games tomorrow to win $1300. Both require that both games win in order to hit.


                        Parlay 1 wins $800 if both teams cover.

                        Parlay 2 wins $500 if both teams cover.

                        My question: I want to know my options to hedge because I'd hate for 1 of them to lose and I'm out $1300! If it's just 1 team remaining then of course I simply bet the other side for some % amount but this is *2* teams remaining so what's the best hedge method? I've never been in this position before so am really unsure what to do. Was thinking I should do a 2-team teaser on the opposite sides, which would also present a decent OPPORTUNITY for both the parlay and that to hit, but feel like I can still get screwed if only 1 of the 2 teaser teams hit....

                        Oh, and I feel very strong on these final 2 games, but of course it's gambling and anything can happen. That said, I'd ideally like to guarantee 25-30% of my maximum $1300 potential since there's more of a chance that the parlay will hit then not.

                        Any advise is appreciated! Thanks

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