No announcement yet.

2019 nfl p.o.w. Week #9 (oct 31 - nov 4) post plays here

  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • 2019 nfl p.o.w. Week #9 (oct 31 - nov 4) post plays here

    This is the thread for the 2019 VFV NFL P.O.W. contest. The following are the rules for this year (the same as in the past):

    1. All contestants must be a member in good standing with VFV Forums
    2. Players make one (1) single play ATS each week during the NFL regular season
    3. A correct play results in one (1) point being awarded. A "push" or tie, results in a half point (1/2) being awarded
    4. An Incorrect play results in zero (0) points being awarded
    5. All lines MUST be taken from the following website each week:
    6. All lines must be -110 or less (must be posted on above buying 1/2 point)
    7. Only Vegas Sports Books listed on the VI website will be allowed
    8. The following Books will NOT be allowed: VI Consensus, BetOnline, PepperMill, Atlantis Reno
    9. The following selections are allowed: Full Game Side, Full Game Total, First Half Side, First Half Total (NO MONEYLINES ALLOWED)
    10. Plays MUST be submitted each week by kickoff of last scheduled game.
    11. Plays must be in the following format (or close to it):

    2019 NFL P.O.W. (0-0-0 (post your current record here))

    Atlanta Falcons +3 (Golden Nugget)
    (This is where you will post your reasoning for this selection. It doesn't have to be a book or even a full paragraph, but more than just "I think the Falcons are better.")

    12. Myself, Seahawk Rick (the artist formerly known as Cybergolf) or any other I deem so, will have final ruling on if a play is valid (ie: Wrong line, Wrong Book, Not enough reasoning given, etc)
    13. The first couple of weeks I will give the benefit of the doubt to any newcomers on here...veterans, you know the rules, LMEAO
    14. NO EDITING!!! (ironic, as this was edited by DaveTuley LMEAO) can't change your pick after you post it as this supposed to mirror the real world where you lock in your bet at the current number...if you need to clarify something in original post (typed in wrong team or line, or forget to cite sportsbooks, etc.), please quote in new post to bring it to the moderators attention
    15. For the first time, this year, Week 17 will be worth 2 points for a correct selection and 1 point for a push.
    16. To qualify for the playoff round of this competition, players must have a total of 10 points by the end of the regular season (week 17)...important note: your points will be the number of Units you start with in the playoff portion of the contest that runs through the Super Bowl and will be run by DaveTuley with locked-in spreads and totals, though Tuley often will give extra options if the market has variances such as Patriots -6.5 but also Steelers +7 being available); still debating maximum units allowed for playoff round (currently 5-unit max bet each playoff weekend).
    17. ViewFromVegas shirt to top point-earner in regular season; $100 gift card & VFV shirt to overall playoff champion (we've had VFV Forum members offer up additional prizes in the past including cash and steak knives, so please contact DaveTuley if you have anything to add).

    If you have any questions, feel free to ask and best of luck this season!

  • #2
    In Week #8 we went a combined 28-19-0 (.596) ATS

    Thru 8 weeks, we are now a combined 230-192-6 (.537) ATS

    Reminder that this is the final week for new people to start playing, with week 17 being worth 2 points for correct selections. I will start removing players from the standings once they have been mathematically eliminated from making the playoffs.
    Name Win Loss Tie Total
    TARB 8 0 0 8
    COMPASS ROSE 7 1 0 7
    SENATOR L 7 1 0 7
    ASTEROID M 6 1 1 6.5
    AARON24 6 2 0 6
    AMAZINGMOM 6 2 0 6
    AZTEC10 6 2 0 6
    BLUEANDGOLD65 6 2 0 6
    FLORABAMABOY 6 2 0 6
    FREE JACK 6 2 0 6
    JIMMYJAM4508 6 2 0 6
    MCGRATH 6 2 0 6
    STRMCHAR1 6 2 0 6
    GCOTTON 5 2 1 5.5
    EAST COAST 5 3 0 5
    J.HERB 5 3 0 5
    JPDAWG 5 3 0 5
    MR. PIXTER 5 3 0 5
    NEALWE 5 3 0 5
    NINERUTEFAN 5 3 0 5
    PHATMAN15 5 3 0 5
    DUKOWSKI 4 3 1 4.5
    ICETEA2 4 3 1 4.5
    2HOLLYWOOD2 4 4 0 4
    BRUIN GUY 4 4 0 4
    BUCKEYEFAN80 4 4 0 4
    CASEINPOINT 4 4 0 4
    CHAMOINLA 4 4 0 4
    MRVOLO 4 4 0 4
    PITTSBURGH 4 4 0 4
    SKYKAM1914 4 3 0 4
    TEXAN 73 4 4 0 4
    XAVIER ROB 4 4 0 4
    ZJABRONI 4 3 0 4
    EIEIO 3 4 1 3.5
    CAP32 3 5 0 3
    COACHV29 3 5 0 3
    DEANO 3 5 0 3
    HEYRUBE! 3 4 0 3
    MATTYSHARP 3 3 0 3
    RACING CAT 3 5 0 3
    ROCKMAN IN PA 3 5 0 3
    SEAHAWK RICK 3 5 0 3
    RAY 2 2 1 2.5
    BUCKY 2 3 0 2
    CDOG 2 5 0 2
    DURBIFY 2 5 0 2
    LEGZ_AKIMBO 2 6 0 2
    SMARTMONEY 2 3 0 2
    BARRY T 1 6 0 1
    CAPTAINITO 1 0 0 1
    LOOPS 1 1 0 1
    TONYLOVE 1 5 0 1
    BARNSTORM 0 4 0 0
    GAMBLINGGURU 0 3 0 0
    MTHELLER 0 2 0 0
    SORANY 0 6 0 0
    STRETCHRUNNER47 0 1 0 0
    Last edited by gcotton; 10-30-2019, 05:09 PM.


    • #3
      2019 NFL P.O.W. 3-5-0

      PHILLY DILLY -4.5 (TI)

      I like the way PHILLY went on the road vs a good defense and got their offense going...Thinking they can build upon that mo-mo as their coach is better than CHI, who have an offense that SUCKS, ranking near the bottom of nearly every main category, and yes, a defense that is good, but a beat up LAC team put 17 on them, which makes me think PHILLY can get to 20 or more, and that's enough for a win.
      Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 10-30-2019, 10:18 PM. Reason: Corrected my record...It sucks, but it's correct!


      • #4
        NFL POW 6-2-0

        NE -3.5 Circa Sports

        Lowest line on Patriots this year. They have beaten seven of eight opponents by 14 or more points, while their number one defense allows the fewest points per game of any team in the league. Raven's defense is sixteenth, allowing 22 points per game - 24 points per game at home. All of Baltimore's metrics are worse at home than on the road: turnovers, points for and against, ATS record. The reverse is true for Patriots. The same metrics are better across the board when travelling versus being at home. NE 27-17


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          Lamar Jackson is like no other, as I saw against my Seachickens. I don't think NE will give up two TO's for TD's, but trying to contain Jackson is gonna be a tall order for NE. He's not the greatest passer, but he had guys dropping a lot of balls vs. SEA. Good luck.

        • Strmchsr1
          Strmchsr1 commented
          Editing a comment
          Lamar Jackson is certainly a talented QB. But more importantly, NE has defensively been playing lights out this year. Jackson versus NE defense is talent for talent, the real edge is NE offense versus Bal defense. On a side note, Rick, I was excited about the lights out first half performance by Seahawks in Sundays game. Exciting first half! They'll beat Bucs this week! Their game was on my early short list of considerations, along with 49ers, Packers and Cowboys.

      • #5
        N.F.L. P.O.W. (6-2)

        Patriots -3.5

        Giving the Patriots a line of only 3.5 points is about as much of a gift as vegas gives. Bal 3-9 ATS at home since 2018, but that record "improves" to 3-6 if you exclude this season's 0-3 record ATS. This year the Patriots are beating the spread by +14.5 points on average - and they have had higher spreads than anyone! The Ravens are losing on average by -11.3 points against the spread. Patriots keep rolling. Pats 27-20


        • #6
          Oops! My bad. Pats -3.5 Circa Sports


          • #7
            Nfl pow (4-3, tonight's game still in progress)

            NE -3.5 Circa Sports

            Have been looking at this game or the GB/LAC game all day. Looking at the best single game QBR ratings all season long...for Jackson he had the #1 QBR (against Miami, Bal won 59-10 in week 1), the #33 QBR (against Arizona, Bal won 23-16 in week 2) and the #47th QBR (against Cincy, Bal won 23-16 in week 6)...for Brady, after they wheel him out to the huddle, he has one more of the top 50 single game ratings this season than Jackson: the #13 QBR (against Pit, NE won 33-3 in week 1), the #26 QBR (against Jets, NE won 30-14 in week 3), the #32 QBR (against Mia, NE won 43-0 in week 2), and the #46 QBR (against Jets, NE won 33-0 in week 7). But season QBR totals have Jackson at #7 and Brady at #10. QB pass ratings for this season have Brady #16 and Jackson #17. But defensive QBR will be integral to how these quarterbacks perform: NE has QBR of 58.2 - 18.8 (DefQBR) = 39.4 (NetQBR). Bal has QBR of 66.8 - 56.0 (DefQBR) = 10.8 (NetQBR). NE in its closest game of the year: 24-17...but margin could go higher because of Patriot's league leading and mind boggling 19 defensive interceptions. Good luck to all!


            • #8
              N.F.L. POW 2019 (6-2-0)

              Patriots -3.5 Circa Sports

              Young QB with a lot of talent and potential versus older QB with a lot of experience and proven results. Oh, I forgot, average defense versus number one defense.

              Just saw final score GB 31-24...makes the GB/LA game look good at -3, especially given Chargers struggles at home. But for only a half point more I get the undefeated Patriots, with their top defense.

              Patriots have only allowed opponents a combined 7 touchdowns all season. Ravens have allowed 16 touchdowns and nearly 100 more points than the Patriots defense has given up. Versus three common opponents, NE held Pit to one FG and beat them by 30 points...Bal won v. Pit, giving up 2 TDs while scoring 2 TDs themselves. NE held Miami scoreless, winning by 43...Bal allowed Mia a TD and a FG, winning by 49. NE beat Cle by 14, giving up 1 TD and NE defense had 3 takeaways, Bal lost by 15 to Cle, giving up 5 TDs and QB Lamar Jackson throwing 2 ints.

              NE is my play of the week again this week. A half point more expensive than the Packers but 4 points cheaper than the 49ers. NE 31-17. GLTA!!


              • #9
                NFL POW 3-5 [3 pts]

                OVER 47 Houston/Jacksonville [CGT]

                Two hot QB's in Watson and Minshew. Both teams have leaky Defensive Back situations and now Houston just lost their best pass rusher in Watt. Both teams regularly score in the high 20's. Neutral site gives no Defense an advantage so no crowd noise to deal with. Definitely enough play makers in this game to get the score into the 50's.

                GL to all


                • #10
                  NFL POW 5-3-0

                  Arizona +8 Westgate

                  Taking the points on a Thursday night home dog is my play here. Heading to west coast for the breeders cup so hoofs not foots is my main focus and reason on getting this pick in early.


                  • #11
                    POW 6-2

                    PACKERS -3 (Westgate)

                    Charger games in L.A. are not true home games as visiting fans both outnumber and out vocal the home team backers. This line seems to still afford a home edge to the Chargers that is not warranted. If this game was in Green Bay, the line would be Packers -7 IMHO. This will almost be a home game for the Pack. Chargers are a mess and the 3 looks very attractive.


                    • #12
                      NFL P.O.W. (4-4)

                      Browns +1.5 Circa Sports

                      I know the Browns are not doing well but I think they get their crap together against another crappy team in Denver and with Flacco out the defense will have a heyday with backup Brandon Allen. If not for turnovers and BS penalties they would have given NE a run for their money and maybe even won outright. One of these the game will go in their favor and I think that starts this week.


                      • Buckeyefan80
                        Buckeyefan80 commented
                        Editing a comment
                        You’re right TARB. That line is short for a reason. Turnovers and penalties have cost the Browns at least 2 games. You can’t spot NE 17 points due to turnovers and expect to win.

                    • #13
                      NFL POW 4-4

                      Pats -3.5

                      Pats are just that good. If I can get Brady under a TD at home I don't care who they are playing. Pats defensive unit is playing the best in the league right now. Belchick will find a way to contain a scrambling Jackson. If you limit Jackson to the pocket he is pretty beatable given the countless plays he rolls out for first down yardage.


                      • #14
                        NFL POW WEEK 9 (6-1-1 YTD)

                        Packers -3 (Westgate)

                        I don't understand this line and this will easily be my biggest bet of the week. This line makes sense if you give the Chargers normal home field advantage - but this is a team that just publicly talked about how awful their home field is. They are actually better off psychologically on the road where they don't have to wonder what it would be like if they actually had fans. The stadium will be full of Packers fans and even if this was a completely neutral field Packers -3 would be great value. I feel like I'm getting a full 6 points of value here. I've been gambling long enough to know that it's never this easy...but really...this seems this easy.


                        • #15
                          POW 5-3
                          Tampa Bay +6.5 @ Westgate This looks almost too easy but I will fall for it. The Buc's outplayed the Titans last week IMO But the Underdog has been the play lately in Seahawks games and Seattle has not covered as a fav at home this year. Could this be the week, hopefully not, believe the game will drop to 5.5