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TNF ahistorical results HF 77% SU,! 60% ATS

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  • TNF ahistorical results HF 77% SU,! 60% ATS

    And that’s before Cleveland won for the firs time in over a year!
    OK I finally figured out the SDQL searches for TNF

    All Home
    SU: 134-88-0 (3.11, 60.4%)
    3.11 is avg margin of victory
    ATS: 119-96-7 (1.07, 55.3%)
    1.07 is avg win margin so make sure you have the best line.




    As Home Favourite
    SU: 104-31-0 (7.98, 77.0%)
    This is where the 77% came from ,!!!!!!
    ATS: 79-52-4 (1.88, 60.3%)
    Most handicappers would give there left ball to win 60% and -110 odds

    BUT

    If we just look at week1, where the teams didn’t play the previous Sunday it’s better albeit a much smaller sample
    SU: 13-1-0 (8.79, 92.9%)
    That 1 was KC( Andy Reid) over NE last year. And Reid is famous for winning off the layoff/bye, whilst for Belichick the season doesn’t start TIL October!

    So the constraint of 4 days between games is not the only reason TNF favours the home team, but there must be a reason for it.

    It’s probably something to do with having to do something in advance of your normal schedule you probably don’t do it as well, even if it’s the first game of the season. If you have to travel earlier too, it aggravates an already uncomfortable situation. But I don’t think it’s just serendipity.

    So Knowing statistically that the home team covered 60% of the past 150 Thursday night games, it would be folly to bet against them unless your own picks won 61% or more of the time.

    I wrote this before Clev won yesterday and I bet them mainly because of this.

    So it’s 3-0 both ml and ATS this year.
    "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
    “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

  • #2
    LAR won as the TNF favourite by 7, whether they won ATS is debatable, but I’m going to say yes as all the LA players, like me were betting it at-6.5 whilst the MINN players were waiting for +7. As I said earlier, getting the best line is important as the average ATS cover was only a point. 0 in this case

    So that’s 4-0 this year
    "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
    “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

    Comment


    • #3
      I like your logic. I have always said in survivor threads, if you can catch the home team as the better of the two teams on a short week, take the home team (SU in survivor).

      Comment


      • #4
        BarryT,

        I went out to your favorite KillerSports database and ran the following query 'day = Thursday and line = 0 and H or day=Thursday and F and H' which gives me all Thursday games where the home team is a pick or the favorite. The favorites are 80-52-5 and the picks are 5-2 giving 85-54-5 or 61.2%. It's a minor deal including the picks but it improves the win percentage to 61.2%.

        I followed your baseball until the site went down. Then, I developed something on my own using the killersports database which I will put up in the daily picks next baseball season.

        Thanks for posting this.

        Comment


        • #5
          I almost hate to write this about TNF this week because of the small data set but here goes. When a home favorite is favored by 10 or more, the result is 12-6-1 or 67% ATS. The last time this happened was December 15, 2016. What's more, the under in these games is 16-3. The sample set goes back to 1990. This is way to small a data set for me to bet a dime but if it's your thing, go for it. We'll see how it goes.

          Comment


          • #6
            Small sanmples
            Line<9.5
            NE -10
            SU: 17-2-0 (16.37, 89.5%)
            ATS: 12-6-1 (4.05, 66.7%)
            line <-10
            NE -10.5
            15-0-0 (18.60, 100.0%)
            10-4-1 (5.67, 71.4%)
            Note the avg ATS margin is 4-6 points, so when they cover they do it easily.
            Last edited by Barryt; 10-03-2018, 07:37 PM.
            "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
            “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

            Comment


            • #7
              All sounds good...but always reminds me of the saying that once you hear about a trend like this, it's usually about to reverse and you should bet the other way (for instance, the books know this trend as well...so, you think they'd tacked on a few extra points to make it harder for all the chalk players to cover? Of course they have...now, will the Pats roll anyway as a home fave?...we'll see!

              Having said that...if you jumped on this stat at the start of the season or earlier (and especially if you cashed on the Rams -6.5 and willing to see how long the run lasts), I say go for it (but I'm fading y'all

              Comment


              • #8
                I started week 2 with Cinci as it was supposed that week one didn’t count as being the first game of the season, TNF dynamics whatever they are didn’t apply. (However that wasn’t true as TNF week1 was 13-1).
                As for bookies adjusting the line just for this trend, the syndicates bet fortunes on small line descrepancies (and their analytics are more sophisticated than a simple trend) so the books would be vulnerable to those that don’t take this trend into account.
                This coming week should be interesting as NYG have to be a dog no matter what happens this weekend.. The Cantor summer line for this game was Philly -3.
                i think that Philly should now be at least -31/2 ( more than a field goalmaybe as high as 6( 2 field goals). This trend is strictly for HF. HD don’t do well at all
                elimating week 1 HD
                24-54-0 (-5.55, 30.8%)
                33-42-3 (-0.88, 44.0%
                In Fact the historical Data says to bet the AF, but betting that destroys the premise that the home team has the advantage... How would one explain that it’s strictly the Fav that has the advantage......live and learn n
                "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

                Comment


                • #9
                  Just for the record I’m not playing this angle tonight but GO GIANTS.
                  "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                  “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Last week The AF, philly, won convincingly bringing the AF record to
                    56-25-0 (5.63, 69.1%)
                    43-35-3 (1.01, 55.1%)
                    Compared to Sunday
                    1280-733-3 (4.18, 63.6%)
                    937-1010-69 (-0.35, 48.1%)
                    Not only do they win more, the margin of Victory is greater
                    I didn’t bet Philly last week as my thesis was that home teams should do better and they do, but only if they are the Fav. That research showed that AF do better than home dogs and by enough of a margin to be profitable. I kinda think that Denver is arguably the better team tonight so I’ll bet them
                    Oops the line has moved to Denv-1, so I’m going to wait to see who the Fav is at game time...kinda silly handicapping betting on the fav and not knowing who the fav is going to be
                    Going to pass on this angle tonight
                    "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                    “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      At game time Denver was still a -1 Fav at my outs and in Vegas and won handily.. FAV on TNF is 7-0 this year

                      This week week8 we have Mia @ HOU with HOU being a -7 HF . No ml yet but expect around -320
                      inrteresting , I think the line assumes Osweiler is starting! I’d like to confirm that before betting.
                      hers the TNF HF stats
                      107-31-0 (7.99, 77.5%)
                      81-52-5 (1.87, 60.9%
                      If line is -6 or more the odds improve quite a bit
                      57-11-0 (12.43, 83.8%)
                      42-24-2 (3.40, 63.6%
                      Last edited by Barryt; 10-22-2018, 07:49 AM. Reason: Added <-5.5 results
                      "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                      “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I've been working on a total for the TNF games that qualify as bets. If there is a home favorite, I ran a query on what happens when the total is greater than 37 and less than 46. I wanted to weed out the high total games and the very low total games. For all Thursday games in the database, the results are as follows:

                        O/U: 26-53-0 (-4.46) 32.9%

                        This means that a bet on the under has a record of 53-26 with a margin under the total of 4.46 points and a cover rate of 67.1%. The percentage listed above is the cover rate on the over.

                        The database I used goes all the way back to 1990. They didn't play a lot of Thursday games prior to 2006. Prior to 2006, almost all the Thursday games were on Thanksgiving. So, I analyzed the qualifying games from 2006 to the present. The results for this query are as follows:

                        O/U: 19-37-0 (-4.80) 33.9%

                        This means that a bet on the under has a record of 37-19 with a margin under the total of 4.80 points and a cover rate of 66.1%. The percentage listed above is the cover rate on the over.

                        Remember, these unders only apply on a game on Thursday where the home team is favored. You'll get 3 or 4 games a year like this. An example of a Thursday night game that qualified as a side bet and an under was when the Browns beat the Jets 3 or 4 weeks ago. An example of a Thursday game that qualified on the side but not on the total was the Patriots vs. the Colts two weeks. The Patriots were favored at home but the total was over 50. It must be less than 46.

                        These numbers are really off the charts.

                        This brings us to the TNF game this week with the Texans at home favored over the Dolphins. The Texans are a bet on the side (although 7.5 points scares me a bit) and it also qualifies as an under with the total currently at 44.5. Check and make sure the total doesn't go up to 46 or higher.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          It’ll be Osweiler again for Miami .Miami widereceivers Willson and Stills are probably OU,Willson definitely according to Dr Chau. Watson still will play with only partial lung function.. All of this bodes well for the Under
                          "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                          “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Thx for all this research guys! And now endele endele los doyers!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Awesome stats guys!!! I didn't realize the favorites are a "Volo"..........a perfect 7-0, LMFAO!!!!

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