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2019 NFL P.O.W. Playoff Thread (Post Plays Here)

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  • 2019 NFL P.O.W. Playoff Thread (Post Plays Here)

    OK, here we go with the first playoff thread for the P.O.W. contest. We had a record 23 qualifiers who earned 10 points (1 point per win, half-point per push) during the 17-week regular season, so congrats are in order just for making the playoffs. As we made clear in the Week 1 thread at the start of the season, these players now use their number of points as units in the playoffs. We keep this as a P.O.W. contest as you make just 1 play per weekend (with reasoning for your play, please, as that's where most of the followers get the most value from these threads). You can bet a maximum of 5 units (wagers graded at even-money for contest purposes). First prize is a $100 online gift certificate to out of my own pocket (we'll determine a tiebreaker in addition to your Super Bowl pick when we get to that points -- usually a 2nd pick of the side/total that you didn't use for main pick).

    Yes, there's always debate about this as some want to be able to go "all-in" if they so choose, but the main purpose of the P.O.W. threads (started long ago by eandhfred) have always been to give an objective best bet each weekend, and we want this contest to reflect that sensibility and not just have people making wild wagers just to win the contest. People have also said "But if the bets are capped, then if the regular-season leader goes 4-0 in the playoffs, they can't be caught" that I say: "WHAT'S WRONG WITH THAT?" If TARB risks 5 units each week and goes 4-0, he deserves to win. And we also no longer allow teasers or parlays as, again, this thread is supposed to be you giving your best single play of the week.

    The other difference from the regular season is that you don't lock in your bets at the time you feel you're getting the best line. Instead, we use static lines for the side and total of each of the weekend's games that are posted on Wednesday...but as a concession to make it fair for those who feel they're losing that advantage of being able to line-shop, I'll give the best numbers that have been widely available so far this week (so there's a chance both sides could win if a game lands in the middle, but, hey, that happens in real-life betting, too!!!

    Here are the lines for wild-card weekend...again, 1 pick, also specify the units you're risking (up to 5, whole numbers only) and a reason you like the play...GLA:

    Bills +3
    Texans -2.5
    Over 41.5
    Under 43.5

    Titans +5.5
    Patriots -4.5
    Over 43.5
    Under 44.5

    Vikings +8
    Saints -7.5
    Over 47
    Under 49.5

    Seahawks PK
    Eagles +2
    Over 45
    Under 46

  • #2

    Name Win Loss Tie Total
    TARB 15 2 1 15.5
    AMAZINGMOM 15 3 0 15
    AARON24 14 4 0 14
    BLUEANDGOLD65 14 4 0 14
    STRMCHAR1 14 4 0 14
    MCGRATH 13 5 0 13
    NINERUTEFAN 13 5 0 13
    DUKOWSKI 12 5 1 12.5
    AZTEC10 12 6 0 12
    EAST COAST 12 5 0 12
    FREE JACK 12 5 0 12
    GCOTTON 11 5 2 12
    ASTEROID M 11 4 1 11.5
    BRUIN GUY 11 6 1 11.5
    FLORABAMABOY 11 7 0 11
    J.HERB 10 6 2 11
    COMPASS ROSE 10 6 1 10.5
    2HOLLYWOOD2 10 8 0 10
    CHAMOINLA 10 8 0 10
    DEANO 10 8 0 10
    NEALWE 10 8 0 10
    TAKETHEREDEYE 9 6 2 10
    XAVIER ROB 9 7 2 10


    • #3
      Since someone deleted my post, and I didn't write down our final totals, I guess we will never know what they are, lol.....actually I think I may have it wrote down on my desk at work somewhere....I'll have to check in the morning.


      • #4
        GL to those that qualified and Happy and Healthy 2020.


        • #5
          Sorry if this will be clarified later - but are we allowed to do parlays or teasers? I suppose a parlay in this case would just be taking winnings from one game and wagering them on another the same weekend (assuming you post before kick off). Thanks for organizing this!


          • #6
            Rules, prize info and wild-card weekend lines are updated in the original post at top of this thread...GLA


            • #7
              NFL P.O.W. Playoff Round 1

              Seattle Seahawks pk (5 Units)

              While it looks like SEA is limping into the playoffs (1-3 SU L4), they were actually an incredible road team this season. In fact, they were 5-0 SU on the road when coming East and went 3-1-1 ATS (according to I will take the more experienced coach and QB in this spot, the exact same spot they won in less than 6 weeks ago. I can see another game similar to what we say in November, Hawks get a huge road playoff win on Sunday.

              Seattle Seahawks 24
              Philadelphia Eagles 21

              Best of luck to all in Wildcard Weekend!


              • #8
                NFL POW (14-4-0, 14 points)

                NE -4.5

                Aside from their past accomplishments (and them or hate them, you have to acknowledge talent), this has been a good, steady, dependable season for the Patriots. Their defense is sound, number 1 in interceptions and number 1 in passes defended/deflected. Top 5 in defensive (fewest passes > 20 yds) explosive passes, top10 in defensive (fewest > 20 yds) explosive runs. The Patriots, even without a solid running game, having to use defensive players as fullbacks, still managed to finish season as the number 7 scoring offense. This is one of the lowest lines the Patriots have had this year. And this is money time for Belichick, Brady and company. NE 30-24. GLTA and Happy New Year!


                • #9
                  Oops, I forgot...above play NE is for 5 points/units.


                  • #10
                    NFL P.O.W. Playoffs (wild card selection) 15-3-0, 15 units

                    NO -7.5 wagering 5 units is my play of the week.

                    As a nod to our leader, TARB, I'll share my thoughts on all games. My strongest plays seemed to be NO -7.5 (alt over 47), and NE -4.5, I penned under 43.5 next to Buf/Hou, and it is my strongest totals selection (although, in checking out Houston's long list of banged up players, Buf +3 looks like a promising 3rd pointspread choice). I wrote "avoid" next to Sea/Phi because I feel both teams have too many flaws. If I had to hold my nose and pick one I'd go for Phi +2.

                    The reason I'm using 5 units to pick NO -7.5 is that they have started to peak at the right time. Their #4 offense this year has been #1 over the past 3 weeks, while Min #8 offense has struggled over the past 3 weeks, averaging only 22.7 points per game and #18 offensively. Over the past 3 weeks, their defense has stiffened to #3, better than the #8 defense of Min during the same period. NO has the #1 special teams, and Min has the #13 special teams. Min was 1-4 SU and 1-4 ATS versus teams that made the playoffs this year, and 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS versus top 10 ranked teams this year. NO was 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS versus playoff teams this year, and 2-2 SU and 2-2 ATS against top 10 rated teams this year. NO 28-20. Good luck to all!


                    • #11
                      Tennessee +5.5 is my play for 5 units this round. I didn't like what I saw last week with the Patriots. They looked old and slow. Meanwhile, you have a Tennessee squad with a balanced offense that blew out NE last time they played in November 2018, 34-10. Vrabel knows the Pats schemes well, I see this as a close game with a very good shot for the Titans to win outright and end the Brady/Belichick era. Titans 26 Pats 23.


                      • #12
                        Thanks for the post and nice to see this here.


                        • #13
                          N.F.L. P.O.W. (14-4-0) having 14 pts. to play

                          Titans + 5.5 for 5 units

                          Patriots have to be sick about having to play this weekend. A win last week would have given them a bye. This is their first time without a bye since 2009.And N.E. has never reached the Super Bowl

                          without a bye in the Belichick/Brady era.Tome threw his first "pick-six" in over 2 years. Henry for the Titans is now the leading rusher in the NFL.Tennessee averaging 29.3 pts. per game in their last

                          7 games. N.E. can still advance, but would not like to lay points with this version of the Pats, especially with Wild Card dogs a spotless 8-0 the past 2 years.


                          • #14
                            NFL P.O.W.
                            UNDER 43.5 BILLS/Houston=====Five points

                            Going with this under-- neither team is an offensive juggernaut --also Bills D is in top 5 NFL this year. Perhaps that's due to poor teams in the division such as Miami and Jets, but they held Dallas to 15 and even the Ravens to 24.
                            I know QB's never been in playoffs not a great trend, which keeps me off a side in this one, so rooting for the under.


                            • #15
                              NFL P.O.W. Playoff Round 1

                              HOU -2.5 (5 Units)

                              Who has Buffalo beat? Their only win against a team that ended the season with a winning record was a victory over Tennessee back when Mariota was still the Titans' starting quarterback. Hou is going to get JJ Watt back, which completely changes their defense, the weakest part of their game. I think Watson will deliver some big strikes to Hopkins down field for huge plays. I see Hou winning this one by a TD but to get them at 2.5 means I only need the field goal. I like this game the most as I have the least confidence in Buffalo of all the playoff games. If I were to list my confidence in the games it would be HOU, NO, NE, PHI