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WEEK 4 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

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  • WEEK 4 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

    Did anyone get the license plate of that…

    EFFFFFFFFFING ASTEROID that wiped out more people in survivor pools this past weekend than The GREAT PLAGUE of LONDON in the mid-1600’s!!!! Non-football historical facts in a survivor thread, you don’t get that anywhere else!

    Speaking of history…ALL four of my picks when POOF! I broke three rules, Road team (NE)…Biggest favorite (MINN)…Division game (JAX)…HOU lost too, which was my pick of the week! Two of the losses were by a total of 8-points...One play probably made the difference in both, BUT, that doesn't get you any brownie points! Ahhhhhhhh!

    Don’t feel sorry for me, or anyone else that went out, we could have all been on other teams like those that you that are still alive were on. A hearty congratulations to anyone still in a pool, and surviving one of the biggest mass-murders in survivor pool history!!!

    MINN…Overconfident as hell, and playing a team that felt totally disrespected. It’s happened many times before where the favorite won, BUT, this time was a total effing ass-kicking by BUFF. JAX maybe had a NE hangover…They had a lot of injuries that I for one ignored, and it was a division game. HOU was a surprise as I thought they showed enough in the TENN loss to give them hope they would improve and take down NYG…NOPE. I didn’t see game, as I was tailgating before the Seachicken game, but Eli got the O going, and HOU has work to do it looks like…NE looks like the they have finally hit the turning point of becoming a 2nd class citizen in the NFL…I won’t count them out yet, but DET made them look like OAK. Average at best.

    Most pools are down under 10% of their players left, the monster pool I am in with a few others on here that had over 10,000 entries is down to under 1000…1%. I spot-checked the list and there were guys with 5-10, and even more picks that had them ALL on MINN…Or MINN/NE/HOU/JAX, or a combination of those teams and got wiped out big time. A fool and his money…

    OK, enough about the Sunday massacre…I don’t have a ton of time to get this written, so will give a brief list of teams for you guys to knock around. The fact that you are still in a pool means that you should pay no attention to any of this crap!!! Put your ideas out there too, as sometimes people bring up a point you might not have thought about that could make you consider, or dump a team you were thinking about.

    TEAMS WORTH LOOKING AT….

    SF @ LAC…This is the ONLY game I can see that is really lopsided on paper…BUT, we know how that lopsided on paper thing worked out last weekend. Jimmy Jesus is out, they have guys trying out for the back-up position! It will be the hardest thing to do after last week, but this could be a time where the big favorite actually comes through. LAC has the talent to take down a team whose offense has been neutered. You survivors have gotten here without taking the big favorite, so do what you will…I still think they can be taken a couple times a year, but you all probably can find another team to be on besides LAC.

    This is the only game I feel has any certainty to it, but it’s tough to think any team can beat another with any certainty after what we’ve seen so far.


    DANGEROUS BUT A MAYBE…

    MINN @ LAR…LAR at home, but I think they lost two of their starting DB’s…MINN is gonna be laser-focused after that more than embarrassing loss to BUFF.

    MIA @ NE…Division game, and MIA thinks they have a shot to beat a 2-loss NE team. They are at home, but they don’t look invincible anymore.

    NYJ @ JAX…This should probably be in the section above. IFFF JAX plays down to their competition again, then maybe NYJ gives them a game, BUT, I feel they got their wakeup call vs. TENN, and will right the ship vs. NYJ.

    BUFF @ GB…I think this might need to be placed in the don’t pick it unless you’re drunk section! BUFF…Can they do it twice in-a-row?? GB got whacked, but back at home…I have no idea if BUFF is capable of going on the road again to get a win.

    CINN @ ATL…I still like CINN as a team, even with the loss on the road at CAR…ATL is good, but they are beatable at home as we just saw.

    PHILLY @ TENN…It’s a roadie, but PHILLY only beat INDY by 4…Not sure who will QB for TENN, but they will want to knock off the kings of the NFL from last year.

    NO @ NYG…Another roadie. NO can score a lot of points, but you need to decide if a 2nd week on the road will hurt them, and if you think NYG is getting any better.

    KC @ DEN…KC will be playing a pretty good D this week, on the road at altitude in a division game…They have a bigger target on their backs each week as the Mahomes kid is still making it happen.


    LOOK ELSEWHERE UNLESS YOU HAVE A GUT FEEL…

    HOU @ INDY…I’ve been a believer in INDY for weeks, and think they are better team than they were predicted to be. HOU hasn’t gotten it done yet, but the spread indicates Vegas thinks HOU will break out for a possible win.

    DET @ DAL…I saw DAL play in person and Dak isn’t playing well. They ran the ball great, and Elliot fumbled the ball that killed a drive to make the SEA game closer into the finish. DET has some swagger after the NE win, and will be improving every week as their new coaches get players on the same page and believing in what they’re saying.

    TB @ CHI…TB had many changes to score and beat PITT, but their D let them down again in the end. Fitz threw as a bad a pick from his endzone as you can draw up, but they still got it going, and the road doesn’t scare them. CHI offense isn’t all that, and their D will be facing a better O than ARI threw at them.

    SEA @ ARI…ARI always gives SEA fits…Road/Division game. IFFF SEA can play like they did vs. DAL, they can win…BIG IFFFF.

    CLEVE @ OAK…CLEVE is still drinking Bud Light out of all those coolers that popped open…They are good enough to be a so-so OAK team, but on the road. The mini-bye helps though.

    BALT @ PITT…PITT looked better at TB…BALT gives them a game usually. Division game.


    OK...Find a way to get to Week 5!
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-24-2018, 11:06 PM.

  • #2
    Keep posting your write ups Cyber, and pics of Elizabeth Hurley, enjoy looking at both. I have one pick in Adam’s 2nd chance pool, took Balt last week, and 1 left out of 5 in a smaller pool. Missed getting in Adam’s original pool, probably a good thing. Looking at Jags, and Cowboys as an under the radar pick, I think teams suffer a hangover after beating the Pats, ala Jags last week. Think Detroit left it on the field.

    Comment


    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      OK hayden, I'll keep them going! Liz will be the 'Fantasy Pick of the Week' model!

      I like the Jags last week, but some NE hangover and injuries slowed them down. See who they get back. I can see them getting a W. DET is another story...Might be some swagger going on with them, as they will get up to beat an average DAL team with a QB that isn't throwing the ball well. Do your homework.

  • #3
    I see Detroit as the most likely small dog to stage an upset this week. Dallas just doesn't have any top play makers.

    Comment


    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      DAL hasn't gotten it together, and a win over NYG doesn't say a lot, but the CAR game says something. Dak is an average QB right now and needs to light a fire to get that team going. Elliott can run it, but that isn't enough.

  • #4
    still alive in a survivor pool luckily used Minn in week one and not available to me or I would have prob used them like many others, I had the Rams
    This week for a survivor play I'm on New England, this is a home game and will be the 300th win for the Kraft family owning the team and also no way that the Dolphins will ever be 3 games ahead of the Pat's in the loss column this season, ever.

    Comment


    • east coast
      east coast commented
      Editing a comment
      always respect your opinion and picks, but ATS I have no interest at all this season playing on the Pats, especially after their last 3 years ATS, the books aren't dumb.
      I just think it's a spot I can't pass up, if you play the Dolphins ATS I hope you get the cover just not SU, looking forward to your college plays

    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      I agree that NE has not looked good at all, even in the win over HOU. I'm not saying they can get it going at some point as Gordon works into the lineup and Edelman gets going again in a few weeks. I haven't seen MIA play yet, so can't make a judgement on it. I'd give the nod to NE being at home, but it's a division game, and that burned be hard last weekend.

    • Barryt
      Barryt commented
      Editing a comment
      TARB
      I think your right about NE...but then I think you said Tiger would never win again😀

  • #5
    Based on my pre-season strategy (try to use home teams and/or teams playing Buffalo or Arizona), I’m leaning Green Bay, but have not yet decided. Here’s what I like – in order of preference:

    GREEN BAY (v. Buffalo -10.5) – can Buffalo do it again? Seems unlikely to me, but it's been an unlikely season so far.

    JACKSONVILLE (v. Jets -9) – great D vs. rookie QB, but offense gets stagnant (to say the least).

    Seattle (@ ARIZONA -3) – Arizona is terrible, but new QB is a wild card. Plus away from the friendly confines of the 12th man.

    CHARGERS (v. Niners -9.5) – Beathard? If they had Bosa this would be a no brainer, but CB can use his legs pretty effectively.

    Kansas City (@ DENVER -5.5) – KC is going to score less than 40 at some point, but prefer to use them at home.

    Comment


    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      I like the LAC and JAX picks best. You'll get find the one you like. Good luck!

    • richbosch
      richbosch commented
      Editing a comment
      Yeah - just realized i already used LAC, so leaning Jacksonville. Looking back at GB's game thus far - not very impressive.

    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      Tough to trust GB right now after losing at WASH...I didn't see game, but maybe Rodgers mobility is an issue.

  • #6
    Survivor Grid for Tuesday...
    Teams with at least 1% in a pool.

    LAC is the king, and GB is a team most people seem to think those crazy Bills can beat...We've seen that movie before!

    Click image for larger version  Name:	gridw4tues.JPG Views:	1 Size:	44.0 KB ID:	1267

    Comment


    • #7
      I have one left in Adam’s pool and 1 in second chance. I told everybody a couple of years ago to avoid the chargers at Cleveland and nobody listened. The game looks too easy on paper with no jimmy g but the chargers are the chargers. I think I’m leaning to GB and look to SD when they play AZ later if I’m still around.

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        LAC has been a jinx team for me for a decade but I've gotten a few wins out of them recently. Yes, looks easy,but teams can get cocky, and then a BUFF/MINN game happens. Good luck with whomever you land on this week!

    • #8
      A new name for a pool,revival pool.1000$ pot 50 entries,taking Jax.Look for favorites to start winning.GL to all alive for real$.

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Is it a brand new pool starting this week Volo?

    • #9
      Leaning Jax before the Jimmy G injury was confirmed for SF. I can’t see taking the Chargers at a neutral site (I won’t call that stadium an actual advantage for them!). And I just remember them dropping far too many games they should have won over the past 3 years. I can’t see a better option than a pissed off Jags D going against Darnold. Hoping for two or three picks and an easy victory - not sure my heart can survive another week of this stress. Good luck to those left and thanks for keeping this thread going each week Rick (it’s one of my faves)!!

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Good luck Deno...I like JAX too...Check the injury report, I knew they had a lot of hurt guys last week and that played a role in their loss. Hopefully they got a few back.

    • #10
      I have one out of 4 entries in Adam 1. Dropped two entries on NO in week 1 Lost my 3rd on Houston last week. My entry alive has used Bal-LAR-Philly. .LAC have had a rough schedule playing two undefeated teams and trekking East to face the Bills. SF even with Jimmy G would be dogs here so they look likely winner for me. I may go Jags possibly too. GB is shaky IMO Rogers is gimped and Josh Allen may be getting better and better. I'm not loading up the mortgage on the Bill ML but this game is going to be closer than the DD pointspread suggests. New England is in desperation mode but facing a divisional team full of confidence so too shaky there.

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        I like the LAC/JAX options too NoJoke. I agree on NE, I need to see them get their act together before picking them. I know they'll get better, so they'll be around down the road for you.

    • #11
      2 entries still alive

      Entry 1: BAL, LAR, MIA, and GB this week.

      Entry 2: CIN, LAR, KC, and PHI this week.

      Best of luck to all.

      Comment


      • #12
        Rick yes new pool.

        Comment


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          Email me info on it if they are still taking entries from new players. Thanks!

      • #13
        Have the one left-- Loved GB but took em- same with philly--

        So left with Jax or Rams and maybe N E--still l deciding-- cannot see NE losing this 3rd and at home-- maybe them--
        Im actually scared to pick anyone-- lately-- picking somebody is same as if I miss deadline out either way---

        Comment


        • #14
          I’m in a ATS survivor that started WK2 . I had 2 entries now down to one and I have 75 competitors.

          Thought I’d make up some “Rules for ATS survivor”

          1 ) Only take DOGS to take advantage of back doors
          1. in a regular pool one wants to avoid division games, so in an ATS pool one wants to take division dogs.
          2. I guess prefer home dog

          Thisweek my choice would be from

          Miami +6.5 vs NE

          Arz +3.5 vs SEA

          Denver +4.5 vs KC

          Then Giants +3.5 vs NO or Tenn + 3.5 vs PHA

          All have the hook to avoid the dreaded tie.

          My analysis says Miami is the best bet of these although their previous record in NE is poor. But the weather should be favourable.

          The others seem dubious as the opponent should prove to be the better team .

          The other game I like is Jax -7.5 vs Jets. Aside from flurry of scores against DET, Jets have been soundly beaten ,even by winless Cleveland. That would be my survivor pick this week.
          "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
          “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

          Comment


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            I can't even pick them this season WITHOUT the spread! Good luck Barryt...I think your 'rules' are good ones...As always, tough to stay with!

        • #15
          I meant less than 10% in the monster pool I WAS in that are left...

          Comment

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