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The Limper NFL – 2018 – Week 4

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  • The Limper NFL – 2018 – Week 4

    Week 4 is the final week’s projections tainted with old data – not that this excuses the model’s weak performance so far. I do a ton of off-season massaging of data to try and anticipate performance changes in the new season – but projecting things like Sunday’s Bills and Vikings game, Jacksonville’s offense taking a week off, or Ryan Fitzpatrick shooting the lights out for Tampa, or a Patrick Mahomes!!! – one can look for past performance data to explain these things, and never find a thing. I sure didn’t.

    Anyway, numbers have a way of – eventually – pointing the way, and GLTA.

  • #2
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ID:	1457 Final Projections for MNF




    Last edited by WJCJR; 09-30-2018, 10:31 PM.

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    • #3
      Have not been following but understand your reasoning for results thus far.Lets look at how we can gain from your results.After this week I assume you now put in data from the first 4 weeks.You are at 31% and holding.Worst case senerio I think you have been at 50% or better almost every year.This means you will be maybe 20 games to make up to reach 50%.Since I am a dog player starting next week will play all dogs you pick for a small bet and go forward if I am right after say 2 weeks.Will call it the Limper back to 50%.GL

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      • #4
        So far, dogs are covering at a 43.8% rate, and mine are doing a little better – but not by much. Favorites are killing me! I’m still confident the model will begin hitting expectations, but only once it’s rid itself of the old data, which is looking like poison. I really have to look hard – again – at holding off posting projections until week 5.

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        • #5
          Numbers are off.Dogs are according to DAVE 27-18 against spread.like 66%

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          • #6
            My bad. Dogs are 27-20-1, or 57.4% (using VI’s closing lines), so Dogs seem the better play at the moment. The Limper’s dog picks, however, have gone 8-13-0, for a whopping 38.1% , so I’d give it at least another week before tailing the model’s picks (dogs or faves).

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