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The Limper NBA – On Picks and Grading

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  • The Limper NBA – On Picks and Grading

    FWIW – There have been questions regarding the projected ATS picks posted on gameday, and final ATS picks posted the day after, especially when line changes result in a pick-flip. – and today’s only game provides a perfect example.

    The point of posting a “projected ATS pick” is NOT to provide the bettor with anything like an actual wager-worthy pick. Such a projection can only be based on the latest data available and, as any serious NBA bettor knows, that data changes – sometimes dramatically – as gameday progresses. Starters end up sitting, injured players return, and lines change, so a projected ATS pick is only ever a guide based on such data as is available at the time of posting. It is a pick based on the current line and the projected margin of victory (MOV).

    Posting a “final ATS pick”, and using its result, against the actual scores, is how the model can be usefully graded. It is based on the posted MOV projection made the day before, and the consensus closing lines as posted on the Vegas Insider website. Now, as most lines change during gameday, the closing line often results in a pick-flip – a pick different from the original projected ATS pick made the day before. The projected SU winner and MOV do not change, but as lines increase or decrease, the final ATS pick used for grading the model’s accuracy, often does.

    Today’s projected SU winner was Dallas by 1.9, and as the line was less, at DAL -1.5, the projected ATS pick was Dallas to cover. Later in the day when the status of Porzingis changed from probable to active, the line went to DAL -2.5. This exceeded the projected MOV, and the model’s pick – for grading purposes – flipped to the Clippers +2.5.

    I hope this answers any questions.