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COVID-19 Data - 3/31/20 – 4/6/20

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  • COVID-19 Data - 3/31/20 – 4/6/20

    With stay-at-home, hand-washing and binging on Amazon Prime and Netflix – being pretty much the sum total of my life at the moment – I’ve added some data-collection on Covid 19, massaging it into what I think is relevant.

    The numbers used are gleaned from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ which, I’m assuming are accurate, but only as far as it goes. Country reporting protocols are a hodge-podge and, in some cases pretty doubtful. (eg. Spain’s reported recovery rate of 93.3% is such an extreme outlier, it casts doubt in my mind on the rest of their numbers.) So, I’m including only those countries where: 1, at least, I semi-trust their reported data; 2, countries from the WHO’s list of the top 10 in terms of healthcare (The U.S and Italy are not on that list, but are included anyway); and 3, countries whose reporting makes sense (for which reason Japan is excluded).

    Note: Recovery Rates are based on highly problematic numbers, and need more than a grain of salt to be entirely palatable. Included, however, because it interests me.

    I’ll update this daily, for as long as there is any interest at all – by me or you.


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  • #2
    Badly miscalculated the Recovery Rates first time. If the data is accurate, this better reflects odds of recovery, although there are some strange outliers - like the UK. It's all about exactly what is being reported, and I have no resource for that.



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    Last edited by WJCJR; 03-31-2020, 05:49 PM.

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    • #3
      http://www.healthdata.org

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      • #4
        Cowherd is using this University of Washington site and thinks it’s the best in terms of reliability. They have a whole section on covid19.

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        • WJCJR
          WJCJR commented
          Editing a comment
          Can't find the raw data it uses, but I like the projection graphs.

      • #5
        With an eye on trends this was a good day, with Covid 19 cases down worldwide, along with the number of deaths overall; but, the death rate ticked up a bit, and the recovery rate ticked down slightly. The U.S. also did well, showing a marked decrease in cases reported, despite increased testing (stay-at-home-and-social-distancing protocols seem to be having an impact). Overall death rate for the USA increased a bit, but recovery rate is up, although they remain 6th in the world, well behind the leaders.

        France's reporting was, apparently late, and will be updated tomorrow.



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        Last edited by WJCJR; 04-01-2020, 01:14 PM.

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        • WJCJR
          WJCJR commented
          Editing a comment
          A slight but meaningful correction: When I said "Covid 19 cases down worldwide, along with the number of deaths overall", I'm referring only to the rate of new infection cases, and the rate at which people are dying. Both hard numbers keep increasing, and this starting to depress me even more.

      • #6
        Overall, today was a bad day in terms of trends. World cases, deaths, and the death rate were up, while the recovery rate ticked down – thanks mostly to a big drop in the survival rate the U.S. reported. Every “expert” says things will get worse (a lot worse) before they get better, but a vaccine and cure would sure come in handy.

        HOUSEKEEPING: Given that the totals for the recovered and discharged Covid 19 patients, for a few of the countries listed, remain doubtfully unchanged in the reports, their individual recovery rates – as well as the world’s numbers – are pretty unreliable. Nevertheless, aside from UK, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg, the reporting of the others on the list do appear reliable, and I’ve added a ranking of these nations in terms of the current odds of recovery vs dying. I’m sure that the laggards in the list will, as the week rolls on, improve their reporting. I’ve also eliminated a couple of redundant columns.

        Everyone stay safe.



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        • #7
          The comparatively huge number of cases in the U.S. vs the rest of the world is striking, and today’s numbers are the worst yet: a ton more cases, an increased death rate and a lower rate of recovery. Given the rates of increase, the U.S. will soon dominate in all categories. Clearly, the U.S. has screwed this up badly.

          HOUSEKEEPING: I’ll be posting the daily update between 7:00pm and 7:30pm EST. The case tracking site I’m following uses midnight GMT as its cut-off - 8:00pm EST. Although most nations have reported well before the cutoff, some countries like France, for some reason, are chronically slow – so waiting it out is needed to make the world numbers as current and inclusive as possible. Also, rethinking the current list of nations. Despite reporting questions (and there are many), excluding countries like China, Japan, and Austria, given their large case numbers, seems inappropriate. And despite the slow and/or doubtful reporting of a few nations (eg. the UK, Netherlands and Luxembourg) on the “Total Recoveries” list, I think survivability is too important a category not to track.


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          Last edited by WJCJR; 04-03-2020, 11:50 PM.

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          • #8
            This is kind of depressing...not only the subject matter, but to think this is how you're spending your time not handicapping sports.

            Hopefully you (and all of us) have good news soon on declining people testing positive and deaths.

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            • TARB
              TARB commented
              Editing a comment
              The leveling off should start in about ten days or so, followed soon by declines.

            • WJCJR
              WJCJR commented
              Editing a comment
              “KIND of depressing”? When I retired from teaching, I consulted as an insurance actuary, and I thought THAT was depressing. This is, hands down, the worst work I’ve ever done, but like road-kill removal, it’s something that seems to be necessary. Every day, after making MOW deliveries with my wife, I download this data with the kind of dread I associate with getting news from an oncologist – but I’d rather get bad news in numbers, instead of headlines.

          • #9
            As much as I never thought I would want to see this, let alone look forward to reading it, I actually am. Not in a bad sense, but because this is the most comprehensive graph and most clear to me at least, in looking at the raw numbers. Thanks for sharing.

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            • #10
              Latest numbers show slightly fewer new cases reported worldwide, and although the U.S. death rate ticked up, the recovery rate improved. Hoping that warmer weather will turn it all around.

              Stay safe.



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              Last edited by WJCJR; 04-04-2020, 05:54 PM.

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              • DaveyShines
                DaveyShines commented
                Editing a comment
                You have omitted Spain, one of the hardest hit countries. Interesting that Sweden is not following the social distancing/self-isolation model used throughtout the world but instead depending on their citizens to act responsibly and rationally. Time will tell if that was a prudent strategy.

              • WJCJR
                WJCJR commented
                Editing a comment
                You’re right, and I’ve corrected Spain’s omission. See below, for alterations to the list.

            • #11
              No states have peaked yet, and only a few 'might' peak in April with many, many more out 2-3 months. Then there is the long downhill on the backside before a state can even think of loosening up on stay-at-home directives. Plus we have 9-dumb ass states that aren't doing anything. I guess the virus can't cross borders. The total cases numbers are woefully low compared to actual cases we'll never know the true number of with the lack of testing early on, and still painfully low as of early April.

              Talk of baseball being played in ARI and FLA with no fans seems beyond stupid in 100-degree plus heat. Basketball seems possible if you can secure the players and staff in one or two places, and conduct a ton of testing, which takes away from others on the front lines being tested.

              Are there odds of no pro sports being played the rest of the year? I might throw some dough on that one. I hope I lose the bet.

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              • DaveyShines
                DaveyShines commented
                Editing a comment
                Read where Adam Silver is making plans to scrub the entire 2019-20 season and hope to start up again in October. I think the NHL will follow suit. The NFL might have dodged a bullet (no pun intended) and might be able to carry on with business as usual, although mini-camps, OTAs and even training camp and the exhibition schedule may be impacted. Time will tell. MLB is in a whole other category. Do they play half a season? Perhaps.

            • #12
              Based on case numbers, I’ve dropped Norway, Sweden and Luxembourg, while adding Spain, China, Belgium and Austria to the tracking list. And unless and until China, the UK and Netherlands begin consistent reporting on Covid 19 recoveries, I’m deleting them from the survivability ranking. According to the CIA, the numbers reported by China are doubtful, but the same could be said of most countries – including the U.S. I do not trust the CDC, let alone the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, to be apolitical in anything they say or do, including their reported Covid 19 data. But their numbers are what we have and, along with China’s, I’ll include them. (Imagine if the NFL played their games in the dark, and we relied on Bill Belichick to give us the scores.)

              Cases worldwide increased more slowly today, including the U.S. which saw a big drop in the rate of case increase. Death rate was up a bit, and but survivability rate increased another tad – so, overall, today was encouraging.

              Stay safe



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              Last edited by WJCJR; 04-05-2020, 04:52 PM.

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              • #13
                Surviving this disease obviously depends on a number of factors and, by country, it’s been reported that there’s correlation between recovery and the number of Doctors, Hospital Beds and Intensive Care Units that are available. The data below is sourced from a number of places, and I’m posting it FWIW. Thing is, assuming this data is reliable, what happened to that correlation in the U.S. and Italy. If someone has a better source, let me know.

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                • #14
                  In the U.S. despite the jump in cases (due to more expanded testing in several states), the overall death rate remains low, recoveries increased by almost 2000, and survivability went up as well; and, after a week of watching the numbers, I remain encouraged.

                  Stay safe.



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                  • #15
                    I’ve hesitated to post deaths projections, mainly because it’s such a downer, but also, because the data on Covid 19 is so damned arbitrary, it seemed too unreliable to put my name to it. That said, the daily projections on deaths I’ve made (and kept to myself) are too close to accurate to ignore; and, given the drop in new cases worldwide, I feel bolstered enough to share the “possible” outcome of the Covid 19 catastrophe. That said, these projections are based on “official”, albeit suspect, numbers: (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/u...922e1cdd489e2a ); so reliability is a genuine question; and Nate Silver at 538 has really put the kibosh on the reliability of “official” Covid 19 infection rates (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-meaningless/); however, as these data stores are all that we have, we can either put our heads in the sand and stay mute before a virtual explosion of death, or persevere as best we can, by facing that explosion and trying to grasp – statistically – its causes and effects. And I’ve limited projections to the country list I’ve made that ranks survivability.

                    Now, apparently – and based strictly on the numbers - the U.S. is on the verge of a huge and scary increase in the number of deaths, but there are indications which may mitigate this ultimate mortality projection, most importantly is the fact that while the U.S. is far and away the leader in reported cases, the death rate for those infected has remained less than 3% for the past week – and this despite the relatively low number of hospital beds and doctors, per 1000 people, which are supposed to be key death rate indicators. What accounts for this has to be the non-quantifiable, but nonetheless real, level of care current Covid 19 patients are being given. The infected in the U.S. are surviving longer – they have to be; and, assuming the infection rate doesn’t explode, the current and nightmarish deaths projection could well diminish. Such a decline, of course, is admittedly predicated on suspect “official” data – which I’m regarding as ‘close enough’ - and on the prevailing and continued suspension of living we are all going through, but I’m honestly hopeful.


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                    Last edited by WJCJR; 04-06-2020, 04:57 PM.

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                    • WJCJR
                      WJCJR commented
                      Editing a comment
                      Being old as dirt (although still just a kid to Volo), I forget stuff – and what I forgot to mention yesterday was that the death projections chart I posted was a 2 week extrapolation and not, by any means, a final projection. By my calculations, peaks in infections won’t be reached for a couple more weeks, and people will still be dying – in smaller numbers, perhaps, but dead is dead – and the final worldwide count will likely be somewhere between 2 and 3 million.
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