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COVID-19 Data - 4/7/20 – 4/13/20

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  • COVID-19 Data - 4/7/20 – 4/13/20

    Definitely a bad day overall – especially Italy, the UK and France. In the U.S. survivability dropped to its lowest point in a week. Hard to see any good trends.


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  • #2
    Worldwide, the rate of case increase dropped as did the death rate, but recovery rate decreased, in large part due to the U.S. which is now neck and neck with Italy – and it is likely much worse. The number of deaths attributed to Coronavirus in the U.S. is simply too low to be credible; and, unless you imagine that Covid 19 strain in the U.S. is somehow less lethal than the rest of the world, the U.S. reported death numbers are probably fudged.


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    • #3
      Worldwide, the rate of infection dropped slightly today, and the recovery rate increased, although the death rate went up. In the U.S. the number of deaths jumped, as did the death rate, and although the rate of recovery has increased slightly, it has dropped below that of Italy.


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      • #4
        Why is the number of reported deaths in the U.S so low? Despite being the world leader in Covid 19 cases, and the having the lowest rate of recovery among industrialized nations, this has been a question bugging me for days. Turns out there is a time lag in death reporting, which should resolve itself only as the infection peak has passed. Seeing this happening in New York now, and across the world: rates of new cases dropping, and death rates rising – except in the U.S. Also, the persistently low recovery rate, compared to the other nations, reflects the acute lack of access to medical care (hospital beds and doctors per population) in the U.S. – and I don’t see this improving. America is on the verge of becoming the world’s Covid 19 epicenter.


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        Last edited by WJCJR; 04-10-2020, 03:26 PM.

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        • #5
          One of the first good signs is reduced hospitalizations recently in New York State.

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          • #6
            A variety of factors contribute to the availability of testing (not the least of which are responsible leaders with clearly thought out priorities), but obviously testing only the symptomatic is nearly a waste of time unless it is followed up by testing target clusters, and enforcing quarantines, in order to stop the spread.

            Perhaps the model for pandemic approach is South Korea’s. Despite being as unprepared as most of the world for Covid 19 (unlike Germany), and having a relatively large population (unlike Switzerland, Austria, Belgium, and Canada), its response has been (very unlike the U.S.) to stop the spread – full speed ahead. It will interesting to track how S. Korea ends up in terms of the factors I’m tracking, and how quickly its economy rebounds.



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            • #7
              While the things are gradually improving worldwide, the U.S. is the new leader in deaths, and with the recovery rate dropping like stone, it’s hard to find anything optimistic to say. The rate of new cases did drop significantly, but I remained concerned that, given that most of the tests done in the U.S. are only for those who are symptomatic, a still greater number go undetected, which ca only expand and prolong the pandemic. No – the U.S. can’t, today, become like Switzerland, but ramping up testing is the only way, short of a vaccine or cure, that can turn this 😐 into this 😊.


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              • #8
                Assuming the accuracy of the number of infected is close – at least to ballpark standards – below is the current rate of infected per 1000 of population. Given, however, the difference in testing protocols for all countries, a “ballpark” number probably doesn’t cut it.

                Boy, do I miss baseball.




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                • #9
                  Given the sharp contrast in how the U.S. and S. Korea have responded to the Covid 19 pandemic – which coincidentally diagnosed the first Coronavirus case for each country on the same day, 1/20/20 - I’ve added S. Korea to the list to see the results of their vastly different approaches. The initial response of the Koreans was to institute aggressive and expanded testing of “target clusters” – the family, friends and coworkers of the infected - and to enforce isolation and quarantine. The first response in the U.S. was to blame China, and restrict travel from that country. Apparently, the “thinking” at the highest level of government in the U.S. was that Covid 19 was only spread by contact with the Chinese (and those of other countries with whom the Chinese interact), so that within the first sixty days following that first diagnosis, S. Korea (a country of 55 million) conducted 300,000 tests, while the U.S. (with 331 million in population) – focused narrowly on keeping the Chinese (and those whom the Chinese may have infected), at an arm’s length - managed to squeak out only 60,000 tests. Now certainly, travel restrictions were a common sense response, but surely it must have penetrated early on that Covid 19 is not race-specific, that it spreads regardless of initial country of origin, and ignoring that simple, basic, and obvious fact was quite beyond stupid. Nevertheless, it is only in the past few weeks, that a hopelessly chaotic, and nearly random, ramp-up of testing in the U.S. has begun; and even then it is far too little, and far too late. And if I sound angry – I AM!!.....

                  Anyway, adding S. Korea (a country that was no better prepared for Covid 19 than was the U.S.) as a model of contrast will be interesting to watch, both in terms of health and the economy.


                  Today, shows the best numbers I’ve seen in a while. Case rate of increase now dropping steadily worldwide, although the death rate inched up. Recovery rate reversed its downward trend in the U.S. and I hope that continues.

                  Stay safe



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                  Last edited by WJCJR; 04-12-2020, 03:58 PM.

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                  • #10
                    A good news day for the world and the U.S. The rate of case increase declined, and while the death rate increased for the U.S. (a predictable trend until the number of cases closes on its peak), survivability increased more than a full percentage point, which stabilized the upward trend. I remain more optimistic that the disease has reached its zenith worldwide; and, as long as the U.S. doesn’t get stupid, we could see the rate of new cases diminish significantly in a week to ten days.


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