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COVID-19 Data - 4/20/20 – 4/26/20

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  • COVID-19 Data - 4/20/20 – 4/26/20

    Rate of case increase dropped slightly worldwide; and although that suggests a “flattening of the curve”, too much is yet unknown to start feeling relieved. In the U.S. the death rate jumped, while recovery rate decreased, which is not what IHME projected, and was a bad day for the U.S. overall.

    HOUSEKEEPING: Rates of survival are problematic statistics. First and foremost, it is not about the personal survival of individuals. It’s a current life vs death projection of a nation’s population in response to Covid 19. Chances of individual survival is not something I could even begin to guess at. Also, based as they are on total cases, deaths and recoveries – numbers that are subject to varied reporting protocols, and inevitable delays in reporting Covid 19 deaths and recoveries – daily tracking survivability is probably misleading in the short term. And, given the number of ICUs in the U.S. – which greatly enhances recovery potential – the final survivability rate will inevitably improve; however, the inordinately large number of infected in the U.S. and the fact that, in the absence of cluster testing, there are a great many who remain uncounted, and a rising number of in-home deaths, which are uncounted as well, real survivability across the United States, may be a lot worse than the final numbers will show. All that said, current rates of survival by nation remain a useful comparative measure, IMHO.




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  • #2
    The new case rate of increase remained steady worldwide and in the U.S., but again the deaths jumped considerably in the U.S. as did the death rate. There was a good increase in recoveries in the U.S., but Belgium is getting its butt kicked by this gd disease.



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    • #3
      While the rate of infection worldwide has finally slowed thanks to lockdowns and social distancing, deaths are beginning to explode. In the U.S. the death rate increased again, while the rate of recoveries, and the nation’s survivability dropped. I see no silver lining anywhere.


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      • #4
        The infection rate went up worldwide; and although in the U.S. the number of deaths dropped, the rate of death climbed for the third straight day – which is not a good trend. Hopefully, warmer weather will turn that around, sooner rather later.

        HOUSEKEEPING: For the sake of accuracy and consistency, from today, I’ve decided to use the final reported data for each day from the sources I use for the numbers I post. These sources (Worldometers, Johns Hopkins, and UW’s IHME) flip the day at midnight (GMT), but I’ve been posting their reported totals about an hour earlier, mostly for the benefit of people on the east coast who are, I’m sure, urgently awaiting my posts before going to bed. Well, now they’ll have to stay up later.

        FYI: Worth repeating – the rates of “survival” I post are problematic statistics. First and foremost, it is not about the personal survival of individuals. It’s a current life vs death projection of a nation’s population in response to Covid 19. Chances of individual survival is not something I could even begin to guess at. Also, based as they are on total cases, deaths and recoveries – numbers that are subject to varied reporting protocols, and the inevitable delays in reporting Covid 19 deaths and recoveries – daily tracking survivability is probably misleading in the short term. And, given the number of ICUs in the U.S. – which greatly enhances recovery potential – the final survivability rate will inevitably improve; however, the inordinately large number of infected in the U.S. and the fact that, in the absence of cluster testing, there are a great many who remain uncounted, and a rising number of in-home deaths, which are uncounted as well, real survivability across the United States, may be a lot worse than the final numbers will show. All that said, current rates of survival by nation remain a useful comparative measure, IMHO.

        Also worth repeating: Regardless of your politics, or your feelings about statistics, according to the vast majority of epidemiologists – the “experts” whom many disparage - Covid 19 is more lethal than the flu, and spreads more rapidly, which makes your routine – normal life behavior – an acute life and death risk. Now I’m no billionaire hater, but the rich are applying enormous pressure, across the political landscape, to reverse “lockdown” orders in order to get people back to work to reopen their businesses, regardless of risk. And, no doubt, the economic suffering hurts everyone, but know that, before you – as an individual – return to your “normal life”, there is a Covid 19-enhanced risk that the lives of yourself and family are in greater jeopardy than before, because of it. Not giving advice, but just urging you to disabuse yourself of the propaganda telling you that black is white, up is down, everything is fine, no worries, and the risk of death is worth your paycheck.



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        • #5
          Dropping the Netherlands, as their data reports are slow and erratic; and adding Sweden, a hero to some because, far from being a lockdown, social-distancing nation, are currently embracing Covid 19 and its consequences; a kind of damn-the-torpedoes-full-speed-ahead approach. Not sure about the thinking behind Sweden’s outlier response to Covid 19, but tracking them should serve as a good comparative study.

          I’ve also revised the table, dropping survivability (which is more of a long term projection), adding the hard number of daily deaths, and current rates of case increase and deaths.

          Anyway, worldwide the case rate rose, thanks to the U.S. which now leads the pack in both Covid 19 cases, and the rate of increase. The death rate for the U.S. dropped a tad, and recoveries improved.



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          • #6
            Changed the frames a bit to make it more readable, and added state testing ranks to show where states stand on the most important issue for coming out of economic lockdown. Also, no sense to having two threads, so just adding the state data to this one.


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            Last edited by WJCJR; 04-25-2020, 06:39 PM.

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            • #7
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              • #8
                Since the start of the Covid 19 pandemic, it’s been all about the testing. Not only how many but who was tested is the difference, both in terms of the number of infected and the dead. In S. Korea, which responded at light speed, not only ramping up the number of tests, but with the smart targeting of clusters – the co-workers, friends and family of the infected, and enforcing isolation and quarantine. The result being that with only a minimal lockdown, they've experienced a daily death number in the single digits, and a negligible rate of infection (an even better rate than ordinary flu). In the U.S. and most of the hardest hit European nations, blaming the Chinese, and travel restrictions were the priorities, and only much later did testing ramp up, and even then cluster targeting was never the national policy – testing only the symptomatic was the rule. Social-distancing and economic lockdowns in Europe did have impact on infection-spread, but it was too little, too late. Because of its late and feeble response, The U.S. became the world’s Covid 19 epicenter, with a huge number of infected and an ever rising death toll, and all this even before the projected “second wave” strikes.


                The CDC deserves a big chunk of the blame, but the buck has to stop with the president, who’s surrounded himself, with a cabinet and advisors, where personal loyalty, over experience and knowledge, is the priority credential in appointments. There’s a cost to prizing sycophancy over intelligence, and the country is paying it.

                Note: Took China of this list, because their reporting is both lagging and doubtful.



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                • #9
                  The Saturday thru Monday variations in numbers are in evidence today. Low numbers on the weekend, followed Monday explosions, makes seeing trends in infections and deaths nearly impossible. Things come together on Tuesdays, but hoping these are the trends, afterall. Todays daily number of infections and deaths has dropped significantly worldwide and in the U.S. where Pennsylvania, Georgia, California and Tennessee are becoming hotspots of infections and deaths.


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                  • #10
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                    • #11
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                      • #12
                        I am trying to figure it out and maybe I am just looking over it too fast, but how do you have your states "ranked" by??? I love what you are doing and really appreciate it and love comparing us (Ohio) with our neighbors and surrounding states.

                        Later today is a huge day for us here in the Buckeye State....Gov. DeWine will announce what businesses will be allowed to open later this week. Stay tuned!

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by gcotton View Post
                          I am trying to figure it out and maybe I am just looking over it too fast, but how do you have your states "ranked" by??? I love what you are doing and really appreciate it and love comparing us (Ohio) with our neighbors and surrounding states.

                          Later today is a huge day for us here in the Buckeye State....Gov. DeWine will announce what businesses will be allowed to open later this week. Stay tuned!
                          The ranking is based on the first column of numbers which, in turn, is based on the numbers reported from each state, on a daily basis; about which, I have my doubts. Slow and suspicious reporting (like from Texas, California, Florida, Pennsylvania and Georgia), and weird reported numbers (S. Carolina), makes the whole thing a tad unreliable, at least on a daily basis; but, I’m looking for trends, which show up only after a week or so, and should give a more accurate picture.

                          But, DEATHS ARE DOWN! And so are infections! I hope the numbers being reported today are closer to real than fantasy, and that we’re turning a corner. I really, really, really, REALLY – hate this shit. I want baseball!!!

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                          • #14
                            Worldwide the rate of infection keeps dropping, as it has in the U.S., where although the death rate stayed flat (thanks to Georgia), the total number of dead was lower than anticipated. Recoveries were also up. Numbers-wise, a good day for the U.S.


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                            • #15
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