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COVID-19 Data - 4/28/20 – 5/4/20

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  • #16
    A good day for the world and the U.S. All bad categories are down, and recoveries had an uptick. Virginia remains in a bad way, as does Illinois and Arizona – but Florida is testing more!

    FWIW – The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) – the White House former favorite – has revised upward its death projections by August 4th - from 60,000, a month ago, to 72,000, (an increase their model has made continuously every day since Trump announced - wildly misinterpreting their limited projection - that 60K would be the final count of the Covid 19 dead). Unfortunately, the US hit 60K on April 29th, three months early, and will likely hit 72K as early as next week. Hopefully, warmer weather will cool rates of infection, but I don’t know if deaths will diminish. The rate of recoveries seems to have stalled, which should have improved given that ICU availability has increased (a benefit the dead pass on), and I can’t account for it. I know there are delays in reporting recoveries, like deaths, and reporting protocols vary, but I’m still stymied by the comparatively low rate of recovery the U.S. is currently experiencing.

    HOUSEKEEPING - I have finally dropped South Carolina from my tracking list. Not only have they reported bizarre testing numbers, they’re now reporting fewer numbers of infected than just last week! I think this is a case of more than one state reporting agency, with different protocols – but I don’t know. I’ve also changed up the testing values, as some states, apparently, can’t work out the “tests per 1mil” variable they’re supposed to use when reporting. It could also be the fault of the CDC; however, in any case, I’ve restated the test rate based on reported tests and total state population which, at least, makes consistent sense. I’ll recompute state populations every week, as I’m just looking for ballpark numbers for a daily snapshot of where states are.



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    • #17
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      • #18
        Good (at least better) numbers today, across the board; although this could be the quiet before the storm. Barring the wholesale release from lockdowns, Summer weather seems like it will slow infections, but how that will impact death rates remains to be seen.



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        • #19
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