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UFC Fight Night 5/16

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  • UFC Fight Night 5/16

    All odds from William Hill

    Alistair Overeem(+120) vs Walt Harris(-149)

    You may have heard of Walt Harris from the fact that his step daughter was tragically murdered last year in a case that got national attention. This will be his first fight back in the octagon since losing her.
    Yesterday Harris weighed in at 264.5 pounds, just shy of the 265 pound weight limit for heavyweight fights.You may be wondering why this matters? well this is the most he has weighed in at in his UFC career. he often comes in his walking around weight which is around the low to mid 250s his previous high being 258.5. Now a few pounds shouldnt matter right? that may be true if his walking around weight was 264.5 for this fight, but that number indicates he most likely had to CUT weight to make it under the heavyweight limit for this fight, not a good sign for a 5 round fight vs one of the best conditioned heavyweights in the UFC.

    Walt Harris is simply KO or bust in this 5 round fight. And that KO will most likely have to be in the first 2 rounds because his cardio will not carry past the first 10 minutes of this fight. Overeem has better striking(former K-1 kickboxing world champion), better ground game(former ADCC submission wrestling gold medalist), and better cardio. If Walt is unable to get an early KO, Overeem should be able to cruise to an easy decision victory, or perhaps even get a 4th or 5th round stoppage vs a gassed Walt Harris

    1u Alistair Overeem +120

    Matt Brown(+120) vs Miguel Baeza(-149)

    In this fight we have an undefeated 27 year old prospect in Baeza, versus 39 year old veteran Matt Brown. Now, while Baeza is undefeated, its not like hes out here beating anybody thats actually good. His lone win in the UFC came against Hector Aldana who is 0-3 in the UFC and has a 4-3 record overall, not a very impressive win. While Matt Brown has a very mediocre 22-16 professional record, he boasts 25 fights in the UFC, all versus much better competition than Baeza has ever faced.

    As far as fighting styles go, Baeza is more of a counter striker, hes not going to be the one pressing the action in this fight. Baeza also doesnt really set up a lot of his strikes. in his fight versus Aldana, he threw a lot of big looping overhand rights with a lot of power trying to get that KO. While he didnt get the KO that way, he did get the rare KO by LEG KICK. Yes a leg kick KO. He threw a good amount of unchecked calf kicks on Aldanas lead leg and eventually Aldana couldnt take it and buckled to the floor. Here versus Matt Brown, I dont think that will work. Matt is not just going to stand in kicking range and be content to let Baeza throw calf kicks and overhand rights the whole fight. Matt is going to be pressing the action forward, looking to initiate the clinch on Baeza. When in the clinch Matt will look to mix up his striking techniques with elbows and knees. I think in this fight we will see the difference in experience level early and often and hopefully Matt Brown can finish Baeza.

    1u Matt Brown +120

    Dontale Mayes(-110) vs Rodrigo Nascimento(-110)

    This fight is a classic binary matchup. In that we know that one fighter wants to stand and use his superior striking(Mayes), while the other wants to use his superior grappling and BJJ(Nascimento). Normally id go with the better grappler in these type of situations, but i believe the gap between Mayes striking and Nascimentos striking, is far greater than the gap between Nascimentos grappling and Mayes take down defense. Mayes will knockout Nascimento within 2 rounds.

    1u Dontale Mayes -110

    A couple more plays i like, but dont quite have the time to do a writeup for. Also they are both heavy chalk, might make for parlay fodder.

    Claudia Gadelha -250

    Song Yadong -200

  • #2
    Sorry for anybody that tailed and lost money. Missed on the Mayes and Brown fights bad. Mayes looked lost from the beginning, and Brown was KOed early in the 2nd round. Bad reads on both those fights. Will try to give better tips.


    • #3
      Absolutely no need to apologize. No one can hit them all. Everyone makes their own decisions. Besides with Overkeem at plus money and the
      Gadelha/Yadlong parlay with a little money management you could still about break even or even make a little. Keep the write ups coming. Win or lose. Just hope more wins than losers.

      That was a nice touch that Overkeem embraced Harris after the match. Shows that these guys do have feelings. Crazy but they do
      have feelings.
      Last edited by rockman in pa; 05-17-2020, 07:22 AM.


      • #4
        Thanks again for this terrific view of UFC. A plus night for me. It is very worthwhile for me to have some insight and great counsel to a sport that I know nothing about.


        • #5