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UFC Fight Night 5/30/20

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  • UFC Fight Night 5/30/20

    All odds from William Hill

    Billy Quarantillo(-137) vs Spike Carlyle(+110)

    I dont see this fight going to the judges. With Billy Q, hes gonna push the pace, move forward and try and take it to the mat and use his better BJJ to get a submission win. With Carlyle, hes also going to want to push forward and wing wild strikes trying to knock Billy Q out. I think the advantage here lies in the superior grappling and also superior cardio of Billy Q. In his most recent fight, Quarantillo held top control on his opponent for the majority of the first round, never losing his dominant position in any of the scrambles, and threatening with submissions constantly. Once the second round started, he was able to take it right back to the ground and get the submission victory with a very well applied arm triangle. Carlyle has less pre-UFC tape to find but from what there is he likes to throw wild strikes that arent all that technical or set up, although when he does land he lands with power, as evident in his first round KO in his only UFC fight. Carlyle also is a susceptible to gassing if the fight goes longer than the first round. If Carlyle cant get him out in the first round Quarantillo will most likely end up getting a submission finish before the final bell.

    1u Billy Quarantillo -137

    Antonina Shevchenko(-137) vs Katlyn Chookagian(+110)

    This fight almost seems too easy which is something you never want to hear when talking about sports betting. Chookagian simply does not have the striking acumen to compete with the elder Shevchenko sister. When Chook fights she likes to throw a lot of empty strikes as she only lands about a 3rd of strikes thrown, a very poor percentage. Shev, while not as good as her sister(champion Valentina Shevchenko, who Katlyn Chookagian lost to in her last fight out) is a much more competent striker, landing just under 2/3 of her strikes. Shev is also the superior clinch fighter and will have the advantage there if she so chooses. really the only way i see Chookagian winning rounds in this fight is to possibly try and take it to the ground, where she will probably have a slight advantage over Shev. Heres the thing about that, Chook has never landed a single takedown in the UFC, so hopefully she doesnt all of a sudden become Khabib overnight and focuses on nothing but takedowns.

    1u Antonina Shevchenko -137

    Jamahal Hill(-125) vs Klidson Abreu(+100)

    Hill is an exciting new prospect in the UFC with an undefeated MMA record of 7-0. He will be fighting a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu specialist in Klidson Abreu who boasts a 15-4 record, featuring 6 submission victories. In this fight Hill has the size and reach advantage to go along with his guaranteed striking advantage and will look to use it early and often as keeping this fight standing will be his path to victory. Hill throws more strikes, has better footwork, and most likely has better power. Klidson on the other hand, is a little bit slower in throwing strikes, and tends to throw one or two strikes at a time. However in Hills most recent fight vs Stosic he was taken down 6 times, so while Hill still won the fight, he showed that he can be taken down. I think this matters simply due to the fact that while Hill is undefeated and the better striker, he is still relatively new to MMA with only 7 fights to his name since he started fighting THREE years ago in 2017. Abreu has been around since 2011 and has 19 professional fights to his name. I see Abreu using his experience here to take it to the ground and keep it there with his BJJ.

    1u Klidson Abreu +100

  • #2
    Terrible reads on first two fights. Klidson didnt attempt a take down and Chookagian actually landed takedowns for once in her UFC career.

    Hopefully Quarantillo can salvage something on the day.


    • #3
      At least he did salvage something on the day.