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Sun. Sept. 30th ALL SPORTS

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  • Sun. Sept. 30th ALL SPORTS

    NFL. 17-4-1. +12.60

    Pats -6.5
    Texans -Pik
    Bears -3
    Cowboys -2.5
    Raiders -2.5
    Over 52 Saints

    MLB.....76-60-2. +11.10....picks later....

    Under 8.5 Cleveland
    Over 7.5 Dodgers
    Washington +170
    Mets -1.5 (-120)
    Over 9 Minnesota

    GL to all
    Last edited by Coachv29; 09-30-2018, 11:30 AM.

  • #2
    Sunday NFL Service Plays 9/30/18

    Arthur Ralph
    Atlanta/Cincinnati Over 50 ( 50 ??)
    Patriots -6
    Packers -9.5
    Ravens +3

    Ben Burns
    New England -6.5

    Dave Essler
    New York Giants +3.5

    Double Dragon
    New England -6
    Indianapolis -1
    Oakland -2.5
    NY Giants -3.5
    Atlanta/Cincinnati Over 53.5
    Baltimore/Pittsburgh Under 51

    Emory Hunt
    NY Jets +7.5
    Cleveland +2.5
    New Orleans -3.5

    Fred Faour
    New England -7
    Oakland - 3
    Bengals +6
    Raiders ml
    Bears ml
    Chargers -3 & Giants +10.5

    Greg Shaker
    Houston/Indianapolis Under 47.5
    Chicago -3

    Indian Cowboy
    Chicago -3
    San Francisco +10.5
    Houston +1.5
    Oakland -2.5

    Jason Sharpe

    Ken Thomson
    Chicago -3
    Atlanta -3.5

    King Creole
    Cincinnati/Atlanta Over 51

    Larry Ness
    New England
    Ny Jets/Jacksonville Over

    Marc Lawrence

    Micah Roberts
    Oakland -3

    Mike Davis
    Chargers -10.5

    Mike Tierney
    Oakland -2.5
    Baltimore +3
    Baltimore/Pittsburgh Under 51

    Norm Hitzges
    New England -6.5
    Green Bay -9.5
    Cleveland +2.5
    Baltimore +3
    Cleveland/Oakland Under 45

    Pointwise Phones
    New England
    LA Chargers

    RJ White
    Houston Under 47
    Atlanta Over 51.5
    Dallas -3
    Oakland Over 45

    Chicago -3

    Stephen Nover
    San Francisco Over 47
    New England -6.5

    Bengals +6

    Steven Oh
    New England -7
    Indianapolis -1
    Seattle -3
    New Orleans -3.5

    Teddy Covers
    Cincinnati +5

    Tom Stryker

    Ultra Sports
    Bears -3

    Vernon Croy
    Chicago -3

    Warren Sharp
    Atlanta/Cincinnati Over

    Tampa Bay +3


    • #3
      DR BOB

      Game Analysis view matchup stats

      Lean – TENNESSEE (+4) over Philadelphia
      Carson Wentz didn’t look great in his season debut and there’s a chance he was rushed back early given how poorly Foles played in the first two weeks. The Eagles gained just 4.9 yards per play against the Colts and their offense now ranks 18th in our season-to-date numbers, although I expect that unit to improve as Wentz gets healthier. Alshon Jeffery could return this week, but his injury has forced Philadelphia’s offense to look elsewhere for production and they lead the league with 45% of their targets going to tight ends. However, the Titans have excellent safeties that have allowed just 4.9 yards per target to opposing tight ends and the Eagles offense may need to rely on the ground game until Wentz regains his form.
      Philadelphia has found consistent success on outside right runs behind All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson averaging 6.2 yards per rush with none of the 17 carries longer than 16 yards. Tennessee’s Derrick Morgan was second-worst in run stop percentage out of 59 qualifying edge defenders last season and I expect the Eagles to continue pounding the ball to the right side on Sunday with good success.
      Blaine Gabbert started at quarterback for the Titans last week but he suffered a concussion and Marcus Mariota was thrown into the game despite saying he can’t fully feel the football in his throwing hand. Mariota threw for 4.8 yards per pass play against a stingy Jaguars defense but did add 51 rushing yards and Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz said Mariota is probably the fastest quarterback in the NFL right now.
      The Titans have seen rain, high winds, and played two divisional games (typically lower totals due to familiarity) thus far, resulting in the worst conditions for scoring of any team, and their offense should improve going forward as Mariota get healthier. We would make the true total 43.0 points and would have a play on the over if both quarterbacks were 100% healthy, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.
      The model only favors Philadelphia by 2.6 points and the Eagles apply to an 11-42-2 ATS road favorite situation, so I’ll lean with Tennessee plus the points.


      • #4
        Tampa Bay Buccaneers @
        Chicago Bears

        Sun, Sep 30 10:00 AM

        Rotation: 263, Odds: Chicago Bears -3, Total: 46.5

        Game Analysis view matchup stats

        Lean – Tampa Bay (+3) over CHICAGO
        Jameis Winston has now served his suspension and returns to the Buccaneers after Ryan Fitzpatrick became the first player in NFL history to throw for 400 yards in three consecutive games. Dirk Koetter will not make his starting quarterback decision public until perhaps Sunday, but I’m guessing we’ll see Fitzpatrick out there again on a short leash. Tampa Bay’s offense ranks first in our season-to-date metrics and we value Winston and Fitzpatrick about the same (based on longer-term metrics) so there’s no reason for a change unless the front office gets involved as they will need to make a decision on the future of their former first-overall pick quarterback this offseason.
        The Buccaneers are gaining 7.8 yards per play this season despite a rushing attack ranked 28th in our metrics because Fitzpatrick is playing way above his normal level. I don’t expect the Bucs to find much room on the ground versus a Bears defense ranked first against the run through three weeks and Fitzmagic is due to regress towards mortal status. Overall, Chicago’s defense is surrendering a success rate of just 40%, the second-best mark in the NFL, and the reason Tampa Bay’s market implied team total is only 22 points despite averaging 34 points in their first 3 games.
        Mitch Trubisky is struggling on the other side of the ball for the Bears, throwing for just 4.7 yards per pass play, which ranks 29th in the league. Head coach Matt Nagy turned Alex Smith into a vertical passer when he took over as the play-caller last year in Kansas City, but he hasn’t had the same success with Trubisky, who ranks 28th in deep passing accuracy. The Bears are one of 5 teams to not score a touchdown on a pass traveling more than 20 yards downfield this season. Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 30th in our chunk plays conceded metric and Trubisky will need to exploit this matchup if the Bears are to win this game. Our model favors Chicago by 1.8 points with a true total of 47.0 and I’ll lean slightly with Tampa Bay at +3 points or more.


        • #5
          New Orleans Saints @
          New York Giants

          Sun, Sep 30 1:25 PM

          Rotation: 273, Odds: New York Giants +3.5, Total: 50.5

          Game Analysis view matchup stats

          Lean – NY GIANTS (+3.5) over New Orleans
          New York’s offense is gaining just 5.1 yards per play (23rd) and the Giants rely too much on the playmaking ability of rookie RB Saquon Barkley and WR Odell Beckham. Barkley is tied for first in the NFL with 6.3 avoided tackles per game and Beckham leads all wide receivers in forcing 2.7 missed tackles per game, but those marks are unsustainable regardless of their talent. Last season, Kareem Hunt led all players with 4.6 avoided tackles per game and no wide receiver averaged more than 1.5 per game. Furthermore, we can expect some regression on 3rd-down for New York’s offense. The Giants rank 28th in our early down efficiency metric, but they rank 4th on third down. Success on early downs is more predictive as the season progresses and I don’t expect New York to convert 44.2% on 3rd-down moving forward. So, as bad as the Giants offense has been, it’s likely to get worse unless they make some changes.
          The Giants do catch a break with Saints nickelback Patrick Robinson out with an ankle injury. Robinson is really the only player in New Orleans’ secondary playing well this season, allowing 0.79 yards per cover snap, and he was an important part of Philadelphia’s defense during their Super Bowl run last year.
          This will be the Saints first outdoor game of the season, but it’s worth noting that Drew Brees actually averages more points on grass away from home than he has on turf, contrary to conventional wisdom that he’s only good on the road in domes. Despite the Giants’ offensive woes, our model actually favors the Saints by just 1.6 points because the Saints’ defense has been even worse, ranking dead last at 7.2 yards per play allowed. That number is likely to get better and our model factors that improvement in, but the value is still a bit in the Giants favor and last week’s win should give them a boost of confidence. The Giants apply to a 54-14-4 ATS home dog off a road dog win situation while the Saints apply to a 60-130-3 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset road win against divisional rival Atlanta. I’ll lean with the Giants based on the good situation.


          • #6
            THE GOLD SHEET

            NFL KEY RELEASES

            INDIANAPOLIS by 14 over Houston
            N.Y. JETS by 2 over Jacksonville
            N.Y. GIANTS by 7 over New Orleans


            • #7
              Atlanta Braves-1.5ev Gausman/Suarez L