Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

The Limper - NBA 2019-20 – 7/30/20 thru 8/5/20

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • The Limper - NBA 2019-20 – 7/30/20 thru 8/5/20

    The Limper is a number-based projection model utilizing past-performance team and player data as well as current match-up variables. The algorithm used is based on an old marketing model I hawked around decades ago, and it took some doing, but I got it fit for basketball projections almost 20 years ago. The only subjective aspect of the model are the selection of variables used and how they’re weighted, but I don’t think any of those selections would be controversial. Although I update the injury module of the program every day before posting, very often decisions to play or sit are made right at tip-off, which can easily alter outcomes. Also, remember the Limper is a projection model, not a prediction machine, and is only best utilized as a guide - so bettor beware.

    The “GB” column reflects the number of games behind teams 2-8 are from the next higher seed (in white), while for teams 9-13 the column shows the number of games they are behind the number 8 seed (in yellow). There a couple of ways to do that, and I probably picked wrong, but – hell – I don’t get paid enough to be perfect. That said, if I did screw up something or you have suggestions, my door is always open. I’ll update the standings next week. Finally, as these last “regular season” or “seeding” games only last a couple weeks, I’ll simply be including them in the model’s “Season Record”; and remember that the “Projected ATS winner” is based on the line that is current at the time of posting; and, although the projected straight-up winner and margin of victory (MOV) will NOT change, if the line changes, up or down, it MAY alter the “Final ATS Pick”, and the model’s ATS win/loss record. It’s the best way I know for grading the model’s reliability.

    GLTA


    Click image for larger version

Name:	The Limper - NBA 2019-20 - 7-30.png
Views:	60
Size:	151.8 KB
ID:	14514

  • #2
    Click image for larger version

Name:	The Limper - NBA 2019-20 - 7-31.png
Views:	51
Size:	250.3 KB
ID:	14528

    Comment


    • #3
      Click image for larger version

Name:	The Limper - NBA 2019-20 - 8-1.png
Views:	45
Size:	253.4 KB
ID:	14547

      Comment


      • #4
        Click image for larger version

Name:	The Limper - NBA 2019-20 - 8-2.png
Views:	38
Size:	274.5 KB
ID:	14562

        Comment


        • #5
          Click image for larger version

Name:	The Limper - NBA 2019-20 - 8-3.png
Views:	32
Size:	282.5 KB
ID:	14581

          Comment


          • #6
            Click image for larger version

Name:	The Limper - NBA 2019-20 - 8-4.png
Views:	19
Size:	280.8 KB
ID:	14585

            Comment


            • #7
              Click image for larger version

Name:	The Limper - NBA 2019-20 - 8-5.png
Views:	11
Size:	279.8 KB
ID:	14596

              Comment

              Working...
              X