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WEEK 5 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

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  • WEEK 5 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

    All is quiet on the Survivor front…For the most part.

    NO giant wipeouts this past weekend…Seems weird, but mostly relaxing for the most part, even though I was a part of TWO OT GAMES and lost one on INDY, and got lucky on one with OAK. INDY went for it on 4th down to try to win…I respect that…Doesn’t get me an effing survivor win, but lets me keep my faith in INDY. PHILLY lost, and might have taken Str8 with them. Sorry if you got knocked out str8, you are alive in Adam 1 still I think…LAR showed they are the best team in football with their win over MINN, but MINN bounced back off the hideous loss to BUFF with a good showing…NE proved they are still gonna be around at Christmas time most likely with their beatdown of MIA…TENN knocks off the champs who will have a huge target on them all year long…CINN in a video game with ATL snuck in for a win and proving to be a team to be reckoned with going forward…CHI did a ‘bearmagic’ trick on TB and made them disappear…Winston back in the saddle after their bye…DAL did just enough with a good last drive to get the walk off win over DET who is getting a little better each week…GB put BUFF back in their place, and showed they are gonna be in the hunt for the division, which is gonna be a dogfight if CHI gets their act together…Yes, HOU was a week late for me with a W, are starting to gel more…I still like INDY, and Luck is getting stronger every week…JAX showed why they are the team to beat in the east for now beating a team they should beat, and beat them soundly…SEA got lucky to beat ARI on the road after missing two FG’s and their last member of the Legion of Boom as Earl Thomas gave SEA the one-finger salute as he was wheeled off the field…OAK got a dirty win, and CLEV got screwed on a review on 1st down play that would have gotten them a win most likely…LAC got cocky and didn’t play great vs, a beat up SF team that didn’t have Jimmy Jesus at the helm for the first time this season…NO hit the gas in the 4th qtr. on the road at NYG where they proved they can get it done outside, even though NYG isn’t a playoff caliber team. BALT looked good on the road in PITTsville…PITT gets Le’veon back soon though and can’t be counted out yet…KC and Lord Mahomes get a good road win at DEN with a great comeback including a left-handed pass…Keenum showed why he will never be elite though missing a sure TD at the end of the game to a wide open receiver.

    I got through in my $10/entry tip money pool with 4 out of my 5 picks. DAL/JAX/OAK/LAC…INDY lost.

    On to WEEK 5 and to STAY ALIVE!


    INDY @ NE…NE bounces back vs an average MIA team, but showed they ain’t dead yet! As you know, I like INDY, but I feel NE is getting their grove back and should be able to get it done vs. Mr. Luck and company. I think INDY won’t go easily, but will be worth betting on with the 10-point spread.

    NYG @ CAR…CAR coming off the bye, and looking good. This will be one of my picks for sure as they are a tough out at home, and NYG hasn’t beaten a good team this season yet, and they will not do it this weekend as they couldn’t get many points vs. a very average NO defense.

    MIA @ CINN…I like CINN, and MIA is on the road for a 2nd week coming off the NE thumping. CINN showed they have an offense that can get it done, and MIA offense isn’t all that. CINN will be one of my picks.

    LAR @ SEA…I won’t pick LAR, but you can! SEA is showing they can run again, but they haven’t done it vs. a good D like LAR has…LAR offense is going to test the Earl Thomasless secondary. LAR beat the crap out of SEA last year when they still had a decent D. It’s a division game. But this might be one for you to play if you are having issues finding another team. RIP LOB…

    WASH @ NO…Brees goes for the all-time passing yards record Monday night, and he seems to always do well when a record is on the line. WASH doesn’t have the horses IMHO to beat these guys on the road in an amped up dome.


    TENN @ BUFF…TENN is not winning big, but they are winning. I like the way they went for it on 4th down to get the win vs. PHILLY in OT. On the road vs a BUFF team that shined for one week, but can they do it again at home. I like TENN, but find a homie instead of a roadie when possible.

    OAK @ LAC…Division game for one, LAC is good, but not great…OAK is losing close ones and should have lost to CLEV. I think they’ll give LAC a game.

    ARI @ SF…SF probably should have beat LAC in a gutty performance without G-Man at QB. IFFF they can duplicate that performance, they can beat ARI on their home turf.

    LOOK ELSEWHERE UNLESS YOU HAVE A GUT FEEL…Or just heartbroken that FItzmagic is no more.

    BALT @ CLEV…CLEVE emptied the beer fridges, and should have gotten a win with Baker MayFARVE at the helm over OAK. BALT is tough, but it’s a division game and CLEV will bring all they have vs another one of their big brothers in the division. The BALT D is really good so far, and this game could be in the section above maybe, but there are better options IMHO.

    JAX @ KC…JAX got dinged up again (Check Fournette) and we’ll see if the JAX D can slow down the Mahomes machine on the road. Sit back and enjoy it.

    DEN @ NYJ…DEN on a short week vs a weaker Jets team…For some reason the Jets are favored…For that reason alone I would stay away.

    ATL @ PITT…Not sure how beat up PITT got in the BALT game but they are usually grudge-matches and take their toll. ATL has enough offense to give PITT a game.

    GB @ DET…GB is going to DET who thinks they can get wins, and will give their division foes all they’ve got, which was enough to beat NE in their home dome. I think they can give them a game IMHO.

    MINN @ PHILLY…MINN on the mini-bye goes to a PHILL field where the home team needs to come up with a big effort to show they are still the boss. I like MINN here, but PHILLY will come up with a way to keep it close.

    DAL @ HOU…The battle for Texas with two teams pretty evenly matched…Flip a coin.

    Throw out your thoughts, and lets find some winners, not some wieners!

    As always, check the injury report as that can tip the scales in some of these games, and make some of the teams a little less attractive…But then again, everything is less attractive then my little Lizzy!

    Put picks in as placeholders!!!
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 10-01-2018, 09:43 PM.

  • #2
    Once again a great little view of the NFL.By reading between the lines I come up with my POW.If you read the Denver-Jet write up it says”for some reason the Jets are favored”.Most people will bet Denver plus the points but remember who drove the Cadillac,the Bookie.Not a Survivor pick but will be on the hapless Jets.


    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      When TP King posted regularly, we called these 'Antenna Game's' where the line seemed off. DEN has a good D and gave KC all they could handle. They are on a short week and on the road. Maybe the line is where it should be...We can see if it moves as the week goes on.

  • #3
    Made it through last week with Jags in Adam’s 2nd chance, Cowboys in a small pool. Going with Pats this week, better team, and greatest Coach/QB combo of all time on a short week at home. I know they will be the most popular pick, but not worried about it. I would feel better getting knocked out with them then any other team on the board.


    • #4
      Great write up as usual Rick. Got thru in Adam 1 with Jax but wow does week 5 look ugly. Totally torn about several games. 1) does one good game mean New England is back or will they return to the first three weeks of inconsistency; 2) Cam Newton is my personal betting kryptonite - pick him and he throws 4 picks, fade him and I guarantee 45 points scored.... and to top it off he is playing Eli who is the grand master of inconsistency! 3) Rams on the road in a division game in a tough Seattle environment has the recipe for disaster; and 4) Andy Dalton and Cincy off an emotional win looks like a huge letdown spot. Not sure where I will land this week with only the one pick remaining.

      Can an anyone give me a good reason to trust Carolina and Cam this week?


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        That was a quality win for CAR over CINN and NYG hasn't shown much so far. I get the kryptonite thing though as we all have our jinx teams. Chargers have been mine forever but got a win out of them last year and two this year even though SF should have beat them Sunday.

        CAR will be one of my picks in my tip money size pool I'm in, but not who I'd take if I only had one pick.

        You are like me can find a case against any team you might want to take! Lol

        Edelman back for NE but check Gronk status.

        Seachickens lost a HOF safety and their best blocking TE last Sunday along with Hendricks the LB busted for insider trading. SEA got whooped up here last season when they were going for a wild card.

        Not sure of CINN injuries but like them at home off a thriller in ATL.

        You have Wed/Thur to get some clarity...Or not!

      • Deano
        Deano commented
        Editing a comment
        I don’t know about clarity, but I am going to hold my nose and go with Carolina this week. Off a bye, at home, not a division game, and not the big favorite were too much to pass up. GLTA.

    • #5
      Survivor Grid for Tuesday....NE getting a lot if love and probably a good reason to stay off them and play a little defense. INDY has a shot to give them a game IMHO.

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      • #6
        Award winning write up as usual -
        Was ok last week with Jax so this week
        Would take NO but cant already used them- and yes NE is a slam dunk but I pass on those which is the only reason I'm still alive.
        Looks like either Car or Cincy- but I see Cincy as TOO EASY and Car is also my cant win if I pick them team--
        Still some days to go--


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          You need to see a shrink! Lmeao!

      • #7
        Sounds like everybody has similar sentiments. I really like Car also but have the same thoughts on Cam and when I go against Eli it never works. I’m leaning towards Cincy and Car to avoid NE. Still alive in Adam 1 and Adam 2. Looks like Pats will be without Gronk and while Indy is completely short handed, Pats don’t look like the same team we saw last year other than last weeks beat down. They SHOULD win but it scares me.


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          Yeah Schierby...I'd take NE in that one, even though I like INDY, but outside of Gronk, I haven't looked super close at injuries yet as I have a Sunday deadline.

          CAR will be one of my picks. I like NO...CINN...SF...too. SF showed a lot of heart in the LAC game, but it's a division game. KC is getting on my radar after watching the boy-wonder at QB...That kid is GOOD!!! I don't think JAX D is any better than DEN D, and JAX O might be a little better than DEN O, but it's a toss up. Winning in DEN is tough with the altitude, and they handled it well.

          If I wasn't a Seachicken fan, I'd take LAR...Not sure how SEA can beat the best team in the NFL.

      • #8
        Went with Tenn of all teams after all

        Heaven help me


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          Did you lose a bet? LOL! Good luck man...Why not TENN!!

      • #9
        ADAM 1 & 2 SUMMARIES....

        Pretty predictable up top, and of course, 'MISSED DEADLINE' grabs one person....How does it happen.

        I can't believe nobody took the Seachickens!!!!
        ADAM 1 ADAM 2
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        • #10
          As of this moment, I am on:

          CAR...It's my POW play, not that being that pick means anything as I am 1-3! Just think they come off the bye rested and with a good last showing vs. CINN, which will be one of the teams to beat going down the stretch. Elly is not clicking with his guys, and not scoring much on the average NO defense at home gives CAR a great shot to run the ball on them and grind them down.

          NO...Drew Brees going for a record on a prime time game at home usually means they will win. Not a great defense, but they can outgun a lot of teams. I just haven't seen enough out of WASH to think they can stay with them score for score.

          SF...Yes, a division game, the other team I like is BALT over CLEV, but that's division game too. I could flip to that one before Sunday based on the fact overtime teams usually don't do that well the following week. SF played LAC very tough on the road, and should probably have beat them, but Beathard at QB looked decent, and with another week of reps can get some more timing with WR's to help get another score or two maybe.

          CINN...MIA hasn't shown much even though their record is pretty good. They are a little dinged up, but feel they are a better team than the last few years and have the tools to score big points on the fish.

          Could change one out and go BALT possibly, but have until Sunday to decide.


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            TENN....Gonna flip off the SF game and onto TENN. I like that they went for it on 4th down in OT...Mariota is getting stronger with the elbow thing and threw for 400 last week. BUFF offense sucks. TENN rush D is not great, but feel they are improving every week and will slow them down enough to grab the win on the road. BUFF had their win for the year...

            LOL! OKkkkkkkkkk...NOW, I am going to flip AGAIN with one of my picks in the small potatoes pool I am in...BALT was on my radar, and I didn't want to be on a division game, BUT defense travels, and they have a very good defense. Flaco is playing well too. I think they can slow Bakerboy down, as now there is a few games of video on him that DC's can use to alter their tactics.

            I might change my mind 5-more times, but I will try to
            quiet the voices in my head and leave this pick alone!


            One of the voices said don't be on a road division game loud enough that I listened....It also woke the dig up.

            CAR....Yeah, breaking yet another rule but will double up on the Panthers who I picked in POW and have the most faith in. Was thinking about KC, but will go against a weaker team in NYG IMHO.

            Ok....Thats it! CAR twice....CINN....NO
            Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 10-07-2018, 08:15 AM.

        • #11
          The Fantasy Liz Hurley Pick of the Week issssssssssssssssss...

          CAR..Off the bye against a below average team. Hopefully not overconfident, but have the tools on offense to get it done as they take a step down in class after a great win over CINN who will be fighting for their division title. I just haven't seen anything out of NYG to warrant any thoughts that they will pull the upset.

          I'm just pretending that I could buy back in after Week 3!

          Week 1: BALT (W)
          Week 2: SF (W)
          Week 3: HOU (L)
          Week 4: LAC (W)
          Week 5: CAR

          You don't care about my pick, you only care about a photo of my next ex-girlfriend!

          I wonder if she's cold...I better check.


          • #12
            Week 2 of Survivor with a twist...

            Last week DAL and NE came through with my take two teams and bet them on the ML individually, and rollover the winnings, and see how far it can go. Survivoresque, but can take the same team twice!

            $100 Starting wager on each. Yeah, I need to take teams with better odds to make more dough...

            WEEK 1
            #1 NE -275 --- to win 36.36
            #2 DAL -140 --- to win 71.40

            WEEK 2
            #1 CAR -290 --- $136 to win $46.90
            #2 NO -280 --- $171 to win $61.07
            Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 10-04-2018, 07:48 PM.


            • #13
              At last minute took NE in the small pool and 2000$ buy back.Not as much fun out of Adam’s pools.GL to anybody still in them.


              • Seahawk Rick
                Seahawk Rick commented
                Editing a comment
                Good job Volo...INDY got it close in the 2nd half but turnovers will do you in every time.

            • #14
              Heritage ran a free survivor pool (there was a requirement to either be active or make a deposit, though). Prize pool of $1,000.

              From what I can tell, the prize is only awarded if someone survives the whole way. It says the prize gets split among people who survive the entire season.

              So it seems likely no prize will be awarded.

              It doesn't say how many entered (I would guess a few thousand), but 93.9% have been eliminated. I'm actually surprised it's not higher than that.

              I'm guessing by Week 14 everyone will be out.


              • #15
                Graham gano with a 63 yard fg to avoid the Eli curse. Wow


                • Seahawk Rick
                  Seahawk Rick commented
                  Editing a comment
                  I got sooooooooooooooo lucky....