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Turnovers in the NFL 2020

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  • Turnovers in the NFL 2020

    Note: What appears below is largely a cut and paste of my entry 'Turnovers in the NFL' last year. Below, I have updated the piece to include the results of last season. Welcome back.

    It's no great insight that a positive takeaway turnover margin helps a team win and a negative turnover margin causes teams to lose. With that in mind, I did an analysis of the team with the best turnover margin (more takeaways than giveaways) and the team with the worse turnover margin (more giveaways than takeaways) in the NFL by season going back to 2005. I analyzed how these teams did the following year (beginning in 2006) for the first eight games of the regular season (I used the first eight games only because I thought, by then, the line would catch up with the team(s)). The analysis here is to bet against the team with the best turnover margin for the previous year and bet on the team with worse turnover margin.

    Let's start with the bottom of the heap on turnovers. If two teams were tied on negative turnover margin, I used them both.

    From 2006 to 2019, a bet on the team(s) in all of the first eight games was 92-47-3 ATS or 66.19% (are you interested now?)

    From 2006 to 2019, a bet against the team(s) with the best turnover margin was 74-59-3 or 55.63%. This is not as good as betting on the team with the worse turnover margin. So, I took this analysis a bit further (you can accuse me of mining data if you like). There are three teams that brought this percentage down from what it might have been. They are the Chiefs, Patriots, and the Packers in the Aaron Rodgers era. My reasoning is that these teams have good turnover margins almost every year. A bet against these three teams when they had the best turnover margin the previous year was 18-22. By excluding these teams, the record here becomes 56-37-3 ATS or 60% which is pretty good.

    I took the analysis a bit further on the team(s) with a positive turnover margin. See next post.

    Tags: None

    I wondered for both the positive and negative margin teams how they did in games 1-4 and games 5-8. A bet on the negative turnover team was 48-23-0 or 67.6% ATS in games 1-4 and 44-24-3 or 64.7% ATS in games 5-8. So, the worse turnover team(s) are about the same in games 1-4 as they are in games 5-8.

    Bets against the best turnover team(s) are 30-37-1 in games 1-4 and 44-22-2 in games 5-8. This is quite a difference. If I remove my three favorite teams (Packers in the Aaron Rodgers era, Chiefs, and Patriots), I end up with a record of 34-12 or 73.9% ATS. My conclusion here is there seems to be some carryover effect for the positive turnover margin team the following year as evidenced in games 1-4. But, it catches up with them in weeks 5-8.

    So, I plan to bet on the worst turnover team(s) from the previous year the first 8 games of the season and bet against the best turnover team(s) in games 5-8 (unless they are the Pats, Chiefs, or Packers).

    Let's look at what happened last year:

    2018 worst turnover team was the 49ers (and it wasn't close) at -25. In 2019, a bet on the 49ers in game 1-8 went 5-3-0 ATS. The best turnover team was the Seahawks in 2018 at +15. A bet against the Seahawks in games 5-8 of the 2019 season was 3-1 ATS. Combined, 2019 was 8-4 ATS. I was pleased with the result, which was in keeping with the long-term average, since it was my first year going public with the method.

    So, you're asking who are the poster children for 2020 (I thought you'd never ask).

    There is a tie for the negative turnover margin team at -17 TO margin. The teams are the Chargers and the Giants. I will bet them both for the first eight games giving us 16 plays (they don't play each other).

    The positive margin turnover team is the Patriots at +21. I don't play against the Patriots, Packers, or Chiefs (Brady or no Brady) so there is no play there.

    As a special note, marcbryanjacobs was kind enough to post the future superbowl odds in my post last year before the season started. The 49ers were 45 to 1. Do you think I put a dime on the 49ers? No. $20 on the 49ers with a hedge on the Chiefs in the big game would have made me $400+. This year, I'm going to have something on the Chargers who are 45:1 and the Giants who are 80:1!

    I'll post the results here as we go. Have a good season!

    Here's a link to my source for turnovers:

  • #2
    If I read this correctly, you will be taking only the Chargers and the Giants from weeks 1-8?


    • capcondo
      capcondo commented
      Editing a comment
      That's right. I will post the results as we go as long as the football season lasts I should correct this to say; I will bet them in their first 8 games which may take them into week 9 if either team has a bye.
      Last edited by capcondo; 09-06-2020, 05:32 PM.

  • #3
    Thanks for posting- I did the search from last year and happy to say came up with the same as you thank heaven!
    This was great last year and continued good luck this year Cap---


    • #4
      I dunno the GIANTS?
      I agree that's what your records show but I've bet against my GIANTS already in season wins and VS Pitton Monay night. I've probably got Pitt as my POW too
      I'm going to pretend that the LACwere the worst by themselves.
      How about a tie breaker of most missed field goals

      As an aside Tenn first 3 kickers missed 10 field goals. Then they found Josef who went 10/10 oops that's XP he was 1/1 in Fg in the playoffs 0/0 in reg season.
      Last edited by Barryt; 09-04-2020, 01:44 PM.
      "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
      “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos


      • #5
        The plays are the Charger and the Giants in week 1. It looks like the Chargers will be -3 against the Bengals tomorrow and the Giants will be +6 against the Steelers on Monday. I will update as we get closer to game time. All plays will be graded against the Vegas Insider consensus closing line. GL

        Sorry i didn't post the updated line on the Chargers. It was -2.5. Right now (with 3 hours to go), the line is +6 on the Giants.
        Last edited by capcondo; 09-14-2020, 02:28 PM.


        • #6
          Week 1, the method went 1-1 winning with the Chargers -2.5 (Chargers won 16-13) and losing with the Giants + 6 (Giants lost to Steelers 26-16). This week the Chargers are currently +8.5 to the Chiefs and the Giants are getting 5.5 from the Bears. Picks are graded based on the VI closing line. GL


          • #7
            In week 2, the Giants covered +4.5 losing 17-13 and the Chargers covered +9 losing 23-20 putting the method 3-1 season to date. I was a bit skeptical of the Chargers chances but it all worked out. This week, the Giants are currently +3.5 at home against the banged up 49ers and the Chargers are -6.5 against the Panthers. I'll update odds as we get closer to game time.

            As of Sunday, Giants are +3 and Chargers -6.5

            Last edited by capcondo; 09-27-2020, 11:28 AM.


            • #8
              Week 3 didn't work out so well with the Giants losing 36-9 getting 3 pts. against the Niners and the Chargers losing 21-16 as 6 pt. favorites against the Panthers putting the method 3-3 for the season. This week the Giants play the Rams as 13 pt. dogs and the Chargers play the Bucs as 7 pt. dogs. All picks will be graded against the VI closing line. GL.


              • #9
                In week 4, the Giants covered the +13.5 losing to the Rams 17-9 and the Chargers covered the +7.5 losing to Tampa Bay 38-31 putting the method 5-3 ATS halfway through the 16 games that will be played. Not bad for a couple of teams who are a collective 1-7 straight up. This week, the Giants are currently getting 8.5 pts from the Cowboys and the Chargers are getting 7.5 points from the Saints (who knows where that game will be played!). All picks will be graded against the VI closing line. GL.


                • #10
                  In week 5, the Giants covered the +7.5 losing 37-34 to the Boys and the Chargers covered the +7 losing 30-27 to the Saints putting the method 7-3 ATS. This week, the Chargers have a bye and the Giants are favored at -3 against the Washington Football Team. All picks will be graded against the VI closing line. GL.


                  • #11
                    In week 6, the Giants failed to cover the -1.5 winning 20-19 bringing the method to 7-4 ATS for the season. This week the Giants are in action on Thursday vs. the Eagles currently at +4 and the Chargers are currently -8 vs JAX on Sunday. In 2020, both the Giants and the Chargers are near the bottom in turnovers with the Giants -2 and the Chargers at -3. All picks will be graded against the VI closing line. GL.


                    • #12
                      In week 7, the Giants covered the +5 losing to the Eagles 22-21 and the Chargers covered the -7.5 beating the Jaguars 39-29 bringing the method to 9-4 ATS for the season. Since there are only 3 games left to play (only 8 games are played for each team), this insures another profitable season for this approach. This week, the Giants play Tampa Bay on Monday night currently getting 10.5 points and the Chargers play the the Broncos on Sunday with the line being -3. The method will conclude with the Charger game next week. All picks will be graded against the VI closing line. GL.


                      • #13
                        As an aside-- your go against team this year ( NE) had a bye week 5- L week 6 and L week 7
                        Perhaps they should join the rest of the pack since Brady is gone?
                        Appreciate this data mining Cap- thank you again


                        • #14
                          Compass Rose,

                          Thanks for writing (you were the only one!). Your comment regarding the Pats is well taken. However, since the beginning of the study in 2006 (for games played in 2007 and later), here are the results ATS for betting against the best turnover team for the previous year in weeks 5-8 including New England's two losses this year:

                          Overall including the Pats, Packers and Chiefs: 46=22-2 67.6%
                          Pats, Chiefs, and Packers: 16-10 61.5%
                          Excluding Pats, Packers, and Chiefs 30-12-2 71.4%

                          If I look at the Pats, Chiefs, and Packers before this year started, the results are 14-10 or 58.3%.

                          Now, none of these are bad win percentages. At the beginning of the year, I had to make a judgment call and I decided to take the juicy win percentage and excluded the Pats based on the team not the QB. Go with what moves you.

                          Thanks for posting and good luck over the next couple of weeks.


                          • #15
                            Great work Cap and very much appreciated. This is very unique research that we are are not all capable of recognizing and executing.


                            • capcondo
                              capcondo commented
                              Editing a comment
                              Thanks Charlie.