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WEEK 1 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

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  • WEEK 1 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

    GENTLEMAN...START YOUR ENGINES, AND PUT ON YOUR FACE MASKS...THE CIRCUS BEGINS THIS WEEK!


    Holy crap! It's fricking football season...Where the hell did that come from? No preseason...Coaches are guarding practice information like they've got the nuclear launch codes, and all you see is a few minutes of QB's throwing footballs on TV. I think I learned more on Hard Knocks than anything else this preseason.

    Sooooooo...In the weirdest of weird years, that the hell do you do in Survivor pools this season or betting in general when Mr. Covid can take out a starting QB at the drop of a clipboard.

    Most pools have rules where you can make a pick anytime before kickoff, but there is a pool that many of us are in where there is a Thursday night deadline, which just blows as what happens on Friday when the team you picked has 3-key starters go to quarantine?? I think to get all the players attention to be careful about getting it away from the practice facility is to tell them they have to go to the SuperMax prison i Colorado and hang out with some of them bad boys for awhile. They can do some whiteboard sessions on variations of the West Coast offense and nickel packages as they look into the eyes of guys that want to turn their lights out if you know what I mean. Maybe having to quarantine with their families is enough of a deterrent!

    RULES...I don't know if you can even think of having them this season with some places having 'some' fans, and other places not having any...At least in the beginning. I heard the NFL says stadiums can pump in crowd noise up to 70-decibels! WTF? My farts after having the double taco platter at the corner Mexican place are close to 100! 70 isn't gonna do crap but might drown out Baker Mayfield's whining after throwing another pick in a game.

    What is home field advantage anymore? I think the weather becomes an advantage for some home teams that play in the hot early and cold late season games. Offenses and defenses will be able to make all their alignment and audible calls without issue it would seem for the first part of the season anyway. It really evens the playing field more than normal. Does the usual 3-points for HFA go out the window, or is it maybe worth just a point?

    I think in the first few games the veteran coaches that have been with their teams that have QB's with a number of years with the team, along with a mostly veteran group of players will fair better. Belacheat and Cammy are interesting as you've given a great coach a long time to prepare for the first game with a new QB. TB with TB should only be better, but younger teams with new HC's might have some rough times early on. All teams will have surprises they can through out there on both sides of the ball that will create some wins coming from dogs the first weekend you didn't expect.

    DIVISION GAMES...Of any rules you might try to follow and break Week 1 like I usually do, the division games to me are still the dicey ones where you have teams that know each other well and are used to the other guys stadium with fans for no fans, so it comes down to not taking the dog lightly as they seem to bite a little more often. I like to stay away from them when possible, but with quiet stadiums, the tough part of playing a road game seems to disappear. ARI/SF for example...SF has a decent amount of injuries and ARI isn't afraid of them. No touch for me.

    I have been in summer mode of putting on the Covid 15...Times two! I haven't studied much except for seeing some of the headline trades and cuts along with Earl Thomas getting run out of BALT for being a jackass! Oy Vey...

    OK...I say this every year but the thread is here to throw out some ideas of teams you like, or don't like, and maybe a reason why. It's also helpful if you hear of injury news that some of us might not catch...And this year, Covid news that might take out some key players on teams you follow that could help the rest of us possibly rethink a pick we thought of making.

    Throw out some teams you like, and I'll put a few up once I can focus on them a little more Tuesday...

    PUT PICKS IN EVERY MONDAY AS PLACEHOLDERS!!!!! You can always change them, but don't be that guy that forgets to put a pick in. Just a public service announcement! ALSO....Check them again the night before the game is being played just to make sure Covid didn't cause them to disappear!


    SOME OF THE BIGGER FAVORITES...You know, the ones that can cut a pool by 50% when they lose!

    HOU @ KC...Hard to see KC coming out flat as they'll have some fans in the stands, and know that HOU will come ready to knock of the SB Champs and maybe not blow a huge lead...IFFF they get one. Watson needs to earn the big payday he just got and might press a little too much early.

    CLEV @ BALT...One of those road games I was talking about with a division opponent. Lamar Jackson will want to get the crap sandwich taste out of their mouths from last years playoff loss, and won't take the brownies lightly as CLEV beat BALT early last year at BALT. I think they'll get reminded of that 1 or 200-times this week.

    INDY @ JAX...Mr. Rivers will have a better O-line than he's had in the past, and if they can keep him clean, maybe he'll look better than the past few seasons. Weather in JAX is gonna be upper 80's and humid...How do the domers react?



    I'll throw a few more out after I recover from the Labor Day weekend and THC infused mask idea I'm working on...If you have to wear a mask, you might as well feel good doing it!
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-08-2020, 01:17 PM.

  • #2
    Two posts I brought over from the other thread...

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    • #3
      Seahawk Rick, thanks for starting this discussion as I'm looking forward to it more than ever with the inaugural Circa Survivor contest this year! GLA

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      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        That should be interesting to watch. I'll have to see if there is a link to post picks/results for it.

    • #4
      Another year and you know I love this discussion.My take on home field is that it is the same advantage as usual.When a team travels during COVID-19 they will be anxious about planes,airports,hotels etc.This could be a factor,especially if a team plays 2-3 on the road back to back.

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      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        At the same time they will be in a bubble when they're on the road as they'll probably test the day they travel. I'm just thinking crowd noise isn't a factor to start anyway, and it will level the playing field some.

    • #5
      So was looking at the rules for that Circa survivor and saw this
      1. There will be up to 18 selections made by each entry for this Contest. For Contest purposes, Thanksgiving Day (November 26, 2020) will be its own independent "Contest Week". The other 17 "Contest Weeks" will otherwise correspond with the NFL regular season schedule.
      2. Entries that have previously selected all 6 Thanksgiving Day teams and are therefore unable to select any of the teams playing on Thanksgiving Day will be eliminated at the conclusion of the Thanksgiving Day "Contest Week".

      Not familiar with this-- is it new?
      I'm just happy I don't have THAT to think about in my pools-- seems like a real pick killer--
      Best to all on here who entered that contest- DAVE AND TARB- And any others- hope you win big.

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      • #6
        Anybody know which teams are allowing fans, on a limited basis, to start the season? I wonder if the home field advantage will be the same without crowd noise? Or is the piped in noise going to replicate/duplicate the volume level? Think Seattle and KC, two very noisy environments. The other X factor, obviously, is the lack of a preseason and the impact of positive Covid tests (false or otherwise) and what the quarantine period will be? Lots of unknowns.

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        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          MIA - Max 13,000
          INDY - TBD but will have fans
          JAX - 17,000
          KC - 16,000
          DAL - TBD - Texas law allows 50%
          NO - No fans first game but will have them 2nd game

          I think 15-20K fans won't make much of a difference crowd noise wise but would give the players a little boost you would think. DAL seems to be the the one with the biggest advantage if they put 40,000 in there, but who knows what they'll do.

        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          Will there be fans at NFL games in 2020? Where all 32 teams stand for the regular season

          https://es.pn/2D74Qt5
          via @ESPN App http://espn.com/app

      • #7
        TO SAVE OR NOT TO SAVE...

        One thing I didn't put up at the top was if saving teams is good, bad or neither...

        In straight forward pools I've never been a big fan of saving a team for a week later in the season. There are so many things that can happen to a team to make them not be a favorite later in the year, it's not worth taking a chance on getting a win now over thinking I have a good shot at a win in Week 14 for example. There's usually 4-5 teams that didn't make the playoffs get in, and maybe those same 4-5 teams that were in the playoffs last year that miss. For the last 4-years or so after being knocked out of my pools, I kept making a pick each week based on what teams I would have had left with the last entry I was on before flaming out. It's amazing at how many teams that you didn't think might be good picks in Week 1, become decent picks in later weeks of the season. Maybe it comes down to playing JAX or WASH in a game towards the end, but if you look at the game hard enough, you'll probably find that the favorite in that game has a decent shot. Hopefully there's better options than true bottom-feeders, but you get the idea.

        The idea is to SURVIVE and get to the next week. I'm not saying take the biggest favorite every week as we all know that is the way you get bounced out of the pool fast because you don't win these things by picking the big favorites as they are what can take out 30-50% of a pool in a given week. I'm just saying you can find some good value in teams you think might be on the lower end of the 'A' level or even the 'B' tier of teams to choose from. Each week seeing what the early leans are from the bigger pools you can find at www.survivorgrid.com can help move you off the big favorites onto good teams that aren't at big of pool favorites. Multiple entries can change this up though as if you have 5 or more entries in a pool, throwing one pick on a bigger favorite isn't as damaging if it gets bounced out.

        DON'T DO DOUBLE PICKS! It happens every year when people have 5-10 entries and they think the big favorite can't lose and they put half or more of their picks on the same team and then OUCH! If it was that easy, we'd all be in pools until the end of DEC. every season.

        I guess answer the question if you are a 'mapper' of your picks, how many pools have you won in the last 5-years? IF you've won one, keep doing what you're doing. If you haven't won a pool using a mapping strategy then maybe you want to flip it around. Or if you are like me and haven't won a pool in the last 5-years not mapping, start drinking! The happy median to both trains of thought is see if you can get through Thanksgiving and then map the rest of the season out as you'll have a great feel for teams that are pretty good, and you'll have a lot fewer players in your pool. As your numbers get low, it becomes even more important to stay off the super-favorites as players with the finish line in sight tend to want to run to the big favorites when doing that might just hand you a big chunk of cash if you can suck it up and stay off of them when they go down in flames!

        An exception that I will have to consider more this season is I'm in a pool with around 10,000 entries along with some others on this thread, but the twist on the pool is starting Week 13 depending on how many players are left, it goes to DOUBLE PICKS! Ahhhhhhhh! Soooo...Totally going against what I said above, I might try to save what I think will be some better teams for Dec. I'll probably get bounced out in Week 6 anyway, but in case I can get through the mine field to the final weeks, it will be good to have a few better options to go with when double pick time comes up! But this isn't a usual type of pool.

        You want to find a way to get to December any way you can. Sometimes pools don't even make it to that point if there are a lot of big favorites go down. Pool players might get to wanting to chop up some of the prize money in the last 3-4 weeks though if the numbers of players left has gotten low. You might have some dog teams left, but if you can get a slice of pie to win, than the survive to the next week no matter what strategy works.

        Do whatever you think works for you as always...Just throwing some garbage out there to be chewed on. As always, you gotta have some luck, and Amazon doesn't sell it!

        These articles have takes on picking teams that relies on trying to be on teams that aren't the super favorites:

        https://www.sportingnews.com/us/fant...11xtct01v21gmg

        https://www.rotowire.com/football/advice/survivor.php

        https://fantasyfootballconsultants.net/survivor-pool/

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        • #8
          www.survivorgrid.com for Tuesday...

          No giant favorites for Week 1...Just an even spread with the top 4-teams.

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          • #9
            Looks like a tough first week.I think of the top 5 maybe 2 could lose.Leaning on one of my 2 picks in Adam’s pool to NE.Agree with Compass Rose and that name is always around at the end.Looking for a bad team and think Jax and Washington fit that bill.My go against this week could be Jax at home but it is only Wednesday and have 3 more days to change my mind.
            Last edited by Mrvolo; 09-09-2020, 04:00 AM.

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            • Seahawk Rick
              Seahawk Rick commented
              Editing a comment
              With you on Jax & Wash being go against teams. INDY & PHIL are my two picks as if now.

            • Barryt
              Barryt commented
              Editing a comment
              Both Divisional games both Road teams????
              Wash led Pha both games last year and Wash is arguably improved both in personnel and coaching staff.
              JAX however has sold the farm and are probably just playing for Trevor Lawrence ( TL).
              Who would Cinci draft if they had first pick...probably trade with ........ Fill in the blank with a team that needs a QB soon

            • Seahawk Rick
              Seahawk Rick commented
              Editing a comment
              I went BUFF and NE.

          • #10
            Mr V yes-- let's hope--
            Rick thanks for info--
            need picture stat

            I just can't see Buff as in top picks--

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            • Seahawk Rick
              Seahawk Rick commented
              Editing a comment
              Lizzy is finding a proper outfit for her rebut...

          • #11
            As of this moment, I'm going against WASH by taking PHIL, which I think is a good team but depends on how the O & D lines do.

            INDY is solid with an O-line that is together again, which should help Rivers be able to look better than past years.

            I might change my mind 10-times, but at least I've got some teams in the chamber!

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            • Mrvolo
              Mrvolo commented
              Editing a comment
              Right now in Adam’s pool,Colts and NE and my one pk in big pool NE.Also look to take points tonight with Houston.

          • #12
            NFL COVID TESTING...

            This morning on local radio a guy that covers the Seachickens talked about what he knows about Covid testing, and his understanding is the NFL is still going to do daily testing including Saturday's before the game. This included traveling teams. I guess they have a quick-result test where it takes less than 30-minutes to get results. This brings the possibility that a player/players could get yanked out of a lineup the day before a game. Just think if it's a starting QB...Wow. Sooooo, check the news feeds Saturday nights so you can see if anyone on teams you've picked gets the Covid hook and how that might affect the team.

            The adventure begins...

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            • #13
              Baltimore, Buffalo, Philadelphia and San Francisco are each playing divisional opponents, which make me think that the safest selections this week are Indianapolis and Kansas City.

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              • Barryt
                Barryt commented
                Editing a comment
                Indy vs Jax is road div game. But I understand how you overlooked it😁

            • #14
              Originally posted by TARB View Post
              Baltimore, Buffalo, Philadelphia and San Francisco are each playing divisional opponents, which make me think that the safest selections this week are Indianapolis and Kansas City.
              Indianapolis also playing a divisional opponent by the way. However, Indy makes a lot of sense to me though, not much to like about the Jags roster entering the season. I don't generally like taking road teams in a survivor pool but the Jags look like a 2 or 3 win team so I don't expect them to win here.

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              • #15
                Well, I lasted a whole day with my leans but now switching to BUFF & NE from INDY & PHILLY.

                Mainly because if I'm going on division games, I might as well be on home division teams. Also, there's not great value in the teams moving forward the rest of the season. There is maybe a week or two that I could see using them again, so gonna fire the bullets here.

                I feel Billy and Josh have had enough time to focus on getting Cammy ready for MIA. Same goes for BUFF Who I feel has a solid defense to slow down NYJ.

                Stay tuned...I might flip again!

                Comment


                • TARB
                  TARB commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Very good switch, avoiding 2 losses.
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