Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

The Limper Line – NFL – Week 3

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • The Limper Line – NFL – Week 3

    Predictably, these early season projections are flubbing badly in terms of MOV, but projecting straight-up winners is a good indicator that the model is performing correctly. Hopefully, by Week 4 we’ll see a better ATS performance. Also, remember that these “initial” weekly projections are largely based in part on who started last week and does not account for injuries – of which there were a big number , and will impact the second round of projections on Thursday.

    Click image for larger version

Name:	NFL STANDINGS 2020 - WEEK 2.png
Views:	115
Size:	128.0 KB
ID:	15725

    Click image for larger version

Name:	The Limper Line - NFL 2020 - Week 3.png
Views:	83
Size:	59.2 KB
ID:	15726

  • #2
    Click image for larger version

Name:	The Limper Line - NFL 2020 - Week 3.png
Views:	72
Size:	60.3 KB
ID:	15794

    Comment


    • #3
      Click image for larger version

Name:	The Limper Line - NFL 2020 - Week 3.png
Views:	64
Size:	59.8 KB
ID:	15864

      Comment


      • #4
        Click image for larger version

Name:	The Limper Line - NFL 2020 - Week 3.png
Views:	39
Size:	65.6 KB
ID:	15920

        Comment


        • #5
          I would go back and check the ATS column. I see wins on Chicago, New England, Carolina, instead of ATS losses The New York Jets should be a loss instead of an ATS win.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Archie8 View Post
            I would go back and check the ATS column. I see wins on Chicago, New England, Carolina, instead of ATS losses The New York Jets should be a loss instead of an ATS win.
            Sorry about this, but my post this morning failed to include the consensus closing lines, which were used to make the final ATS picks (based the final posted MOV projections), and to grade ATS WINS/LOSSES. As I have cautioned before, pick-flips happen, but using the closing lines to grade the model’s performance is the most open and reliable method in have found. Per usual, and as you pointed out, the closing lines once again killed the model’s ATS record, going 1-3 on the pick-flips. Below includes final closing lines and picks.

            Click image for larger version

Name:	The Limper Line - NFL 2020 - Week 3.png
Views:	41
Size:	65.5 KB
ID:	15926

            Comment

            Working...
            X