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NFL Line Movement 2020 - 88%!

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  • NFL Line Movement 2020 - 88%!

    Line Movement is a tricky thing. Follow it or fade it? If you fade it, you get a better number and if you follow it, you get a worse number - unless you are making picks in the Circa and SuperContest where the lines are static. But even with static lines, playing the line variance has not been a big winning trend in those contests.

    I've tracked line movement through the years and could not really find any way to filter it and find a trend to play it by either fading it or following it. It seems to be pretty close to a 50/50 proposition. But so far this year, Line Movement has pointed you in the right direction at an amazing rate, even with taking the worse number. Line Movement is 23-3 for 88% so far this year, using Pinnacle's opening and closing numbers! Seems unbelievable. Check my work. Maybe I got some wrong numbers.

    Week 1 (12-3)

    NE -6 to -7.5 C
    BLT -8.5 to -7 X
    BUF -6 to -6.5 C
    LV -3 to -3 VF C
    SEA -1 to +1 X
    PHL -6 to -5.5 C
    DET -3 to -2.5 C
    IND -7.5 to -7 C
    MIN -2.5 to -1 C
    SF -7.5 to -7 C
    NO -3.5 to -4 C
    DAL -2 to +1 C
    PIT -3.5 to -6 C
    DEN -1.5 to +3.5 X

    Week 2 (11-0)
    PHL -2.5 to -1.5 C
    PIT -6.5 to -6 C
    DAL -6 to -3 C
    SF -6 to -7 C
    IND -3 to -3.5 C
    GB -5.5 to -7 C
    CHI -6 to -4.5 C
    TEN -9 to -7 C
    AZ -7 to -7.5 C
    BLT -6.5 to -7.5 C
    N.O. -6.5 to -4 C

    Last edited by barnstorm; 09-23-2020, 09:37 AM.

  • #2
    Very interesting numbers.I think you missed another winner Monday night.NO closed a 4.5 favorite.I have had some success playing dogs in this situation.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Mrvolo View Post
      Very interesting numbers.I think you missed another winner Monday night.NO closed a 4.5 favorite.I have had some success playing dogs in this situation.
      Thanks for pointing out New Orleans. I have added them in above.

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      • #4
        wow great info... thanks for sharing. Lets keep this post rolling and track it for this week. Looks like Jax is first play this week with this strategy.

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        • #5
          Denver/Tenn Week 1 could be scored a win as well, as the books got middled on it.

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          • #6
            This Week's Line Movement picks so far. Things will probably change a bit as we approach kickoff time for each of the games. This is a trend where you'd have to bet them right before kickoff to get the final closing line and see if it is still a play.

            Follow 'em or fade 'em? Obviously you get the worse number if you follow 'em, but even with that it has been very successful this year. But is has only been a 50/50 prop over the years, so beware the return or regression to the mean.

            NE -6 to -6.5
            LA Rams +3 to +1
            HOU +5.5 to +4
            NYG +4 to +3.5
            TEN -1.5 to -3
            CLE -7 to -7.5
            CIN +6.5 to +4
            Indy -9.5 to -12.5
            Carolina +7 to +6.5
            DET +6.5 to +5.5
            SEA -4 to -4.5
            Baltimore -3 to -3.5

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            • #7
              Atlanta has dropped from -3 to -2.5. Big move. Maybe Julio was ruled out?

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              • #8
                Update

                NE -6 to -7
                LA Rams +3 to +1.5
                HOU +5.5 to +3.5
                NYG +4 to +3 (Lots of injuries on both sides, but more for the Niners.)
                TEN -1.5 to -3 (2-0 Ten vs 0-2 MIN., but what is Home field worth this year?)
                CLE -7 to -7.5
                CIN +6.5 to +6
                CHI +3 to +2.5 (Julio ruled out, but I thought that was baked in.)
                Indy -9.5 to -12.5
                Carolina +7 to +6.5 (Herbert to start.)
                DET +6.5 to +5 (Strange line move with hot AZ against cold DET.)
                SEA -4 to -5.5
                DEN +6 to +5.5 (not a very significant move)
                N.O. -3 to -3.5 (even without Michael Thomas!)
                Baltimore -3 to -3.5
                Last edited by barnstorm; 09-27-2020, 03:45 PM.

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                • #9
                  8-7 his week. Was 8-4 on Sunday afternoon, but 0-3 on Thursday, Sunday night and Monday night, FWIW.

                  JAX -1.5 to -3 X
                  NE -6 to -7 C
                  LA Rams +3 to +1.5 X
                  HOU +5.5 to +3.5 X
                  NYG +4 to +3 X
                  TEN -1.5 to -3 X
                  CLE -7 to -7.5 C
                  CIN +6.5 to +6 C
                  CHI +3 to +2.5 C
                  Indy -9.5 to -12.5 C
                  Carolina +7 to +6.5 C
                  DET +6.5 to +5 C
                  SEA -4 to -5.5 C
                  N.O. -3 to -3.5 X
                  Baltimore -3 to -3.5 X
                  Last edited by barnstorm; 09-29-2020, 06:23 AM.

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                  • #10
                    So, this Line Movement trend came back to earth this weekend after an amazing start.

                    ​​​​​​​Line Movement YTD 31-10 75.6%.

                    Week 1 (12-3)
                    Week 2 (11-0)
                    Week 3 (8-7)

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                    • #11
                      Week 4 Line Movement, like Week 3 seems to be getting back to a 50/50 proposition.

                      4-8 this weekend. (Or 5-7 if you got BAL under -14. They closed at -14.5 and lost ATS)

                      CAR +4 to +3 C
                      CLE +4.5 to +3.5 C
                      MIN +4 to +3.5 C
                      IND -2.5 to -3.5 C


                      NYJ +2.5 to -1 X
                      DET +3.5 to +3 X
                      JAX +3.5 to +1 X
                      MIA +6.5 to +4.5 X
                      BAL -13 to -14.5 X (depending on what number you got.)
                      LAR -13 to -13.5 X
                      SF -5.5 to -8.5 X

                      ATL +7.5 to +5. X
                      Last edited by barnstorm; 10-17-2020, 08:49 AM.

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                      • #12
                        Week 5 Line Movement went 9-4 last weekend.

                        CHI +6 to +3.5 C
                        CAR +3.5 to +2.5 C
                        LV +12 to +11 C
                        PIT -7 to -7.5 C
                        MIA +9 to +8 C
                        NYG +9.5 to +7.5 C
                        CLE +1 to -1 C
                        MIN +7.5 to +6.5 C
                        LAC +7.5 to +7


                        WASH +9.5 to +5 X
                        NYJ +7.5 to +7 X
                        CIN +14 to +12.5 X
                        BUF -2.5 to -3 X

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                        • #13
                          Line Movement YTD: 44-22 67%.

                          Week 1 (12-3)
                          Week 2 (11-0)
                          Week 3 (8-7)

                          Week 4 (4-8)
                          Week 5 (9-4)

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                          • #14
                            Week 6 Line Movement went 8-4. Line Movement all of sudden a great trend this year.

                            CHI +3 to +3 C
                            TEN -3.5 to -4 C
                            WAS +3.5 to +2 C
                            CIN +9.5 to +7.5 C
                            DEN +9.5 to +7 C
                            MIA -8 to -9.5 C
                            SF +3 to +2 C
                            KC -4 to -5.5 C


                            CLE + to +3 X
                            BAL -7.5 to -10.5 X
                            GB -1.5 to -3 X
                            DAL +2.5 to -1 X


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                            • #15
                              Line Movement YTD: 52-26 (67%).

                              Week 1 (12-3)
                              Week 2 (11-0)
                              Week 3 (8-7)

                              Week 4 (4-8)
                              Week 5 (9-4)
                              Week 6 (8-4)

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