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Home Field Advantage?

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  • Home Field Advantage?

    Are the oddsmakers adding the same amount of points to home field advantage this year, or have they adjusted due to no fans in the stands?

    Has anyone heard any spokespeople for any Books talk about this?

    It seems the lines are about the same as they would be if there were fans in the stands.

    Coaches have mentioned that it is definitely an advantage for the visitors this year, especially when it comes to being able to hear audibles and not jumping offsides.

    Large home crowds may also influence the Refs. One study found that it was the single most important factor to home field advantage. It sure helped the Bills steal one from the Rams on Sunday. What a bad pass interference call that handed the game to the home team Bills.

    Visitors still need to travel and Home teams get to sleep in their own beds at home. That is still a significant factor.

    Home teams are right at 50% so far this year ATS.

  • #2
    I listened to Chris Andrews on VSIN yesterday and he said he is trying to figure out the HFA true number. He said now that they all played three weeks he will run analysis. I think most books are using close to 2 points. Sagarin shows 2.36 advantage. I think there has to be a range. I.e. - LA Chargers would be close to zero and teams like Denver would be more like 2.5 cause of altitude and Miami might be 2+ cause of heat/humidity this time of year. If I hear anything firm I will let you know.


    • #3
      I think that with the # at about 50% for home teams ATS the lines have adjusted correctly.Denver and altitude did not help Sunday and Miami and heat same against Buffalo.I ignore HFA and try to pick winners as I have always done.Whatever worked last year will work this.The imfo you have the more confused you become.


      • #4
        Over the years, I’ve found that any automatic number of points added to a home team’s expected score is bound to fail. Fans have an impact, of course, but without them, especially in New Orleans, Seattle and KC, HFA is minimized. The fact is that that some teams travel well, and others don’t, and that only becomes apparent by mid-season, and some teams are bad or good wherever they play.


        • #5
          Very well said.Last night was a Good example of a team traveling very well.


          • #6
            I think HFA is real and that it can and must be considered when evaluating games. Good points above on LAC having no advantage last few years and Denver having a significant one.

            For 2020 I think it would be helpful to look at which home teams are allowing some fans to attend vs those who aren’t. In Week 4, 8 venues are allowing some fans: Carolina, Cinc, Dallas, Hous, Mia, TB, Tenn and KC.


            • #7
              Home Teams are 3-10 ATS so far this week! Maybe the oddsmakers are giving too much for home field advantage. Maybe they will shave some off next weekend if it looks like home field is not so advantageous this year. Still, home teams were right at 50% for the first three weeks, so maybe this week is just a fluke and they won't adjust unless it continues for another week or two. Funny, because there were more fans in the stands this week then the first three weeks.


              • #8
                That is ironic that there were some games with more fans this week...I do think home-field advantage is negligible at this point (might even benefit road teams as playing in neutral environment and able to communicate better without the usual crowd noise), though I think this week was a bit of an aberration as I certainly wouldn't advocate for "road-field advantage" LMEAO


                • #9
                  Home Teams this year no worse than last year, but a bit less than previous years.

                  ATS: 33-40-4 45.2%
                  SU: 40-36-1

                  Last year
                  ATS: 109-144-8 43.1%

                  ATS: 122-130-11 48.4%

                  ATS: 128-120-13 51.6%

                  ATS: 128-127-7 50.2%