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2020 NFL P.O.W. Week #6 (October 18-19 ) Post Plays Here

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  • #16
    NFL P.O.W. (2-3-0)

    BAL -7.5 Treasure Island, and everyone else

    Win streak was short lived. Last week 2-2, missing KC and SEA picks. Could have been 3-2 if my TEN pick hadn't been pulled, when it was rescheduled to Tuesday night. Top nods this week are:
    KC -3.5 @ BUF. KC an offensive machine, Best record SU and ATS since last season. Yes, they stumbled last week after continuing SU and ATS streak the previous two weeks against two good defenses BAL and NE. Reid and Mahomes will right this ship this weekend. Mahomes has #2 QBR rating with #2 TD to INT ratio, at 13 TDs to 1 INT. Allen has 14 TDs to 3 INTs. In two of the past three weeks, KC beat BAL by 14 points and NE by 16 points. BUF has played a much weaker schedule until last week. TEN was their strongest opponent to date, a blowout loss. KC lost too, but was more competitive in their loss.
    BAL -7.5 @PHI. Overall trends last two years easily favoring BAL. Wentz has 6th worst OffQBR in league, big edge Jackson. BAL #2 in DefQBR, PHI 11th worst DefQBR. BAL 3rd best rushing offense and among leaders in turnover margin and takeaways. PHI among worst in league in turnover margin due to being the worst team in giveaways. When BAL lost to KC in week 3 they had the worst DefQBR for the week. In each of the past two weeks, BAL has had the #1 ranked DefQBR for each week. PHI has lots of injuries, especially to defense and wide receivers.
    LAR -3 @ SF. SF 3rd worst in DefQBR, 7th worst in OffQBR. LAR middle of the league in OffQBR, fifth in DefQBR. LAR best in league ATS in divisional games since last year, with 80% cover rate. SF 4th worst in league ATS in divisional games since last year, with 33% cover rate .
    MIN -3.5 at home v. ATL. Ryan will not score as easily against MIN #4 DefQBR, as Cousins will against ATL #32 DefQBR. MIN has 4th best rushing offense against ATL 14th best rushing defense. MIN will use the run to good effect in setting up the play action pass. Coaching change brings unsettling, uncertain days for Falcons.
    GB Pick @ TB. Battle between two hall of fame quarterbacks, but Rodgers with his #1 OffQBR has been soaring. In four of the five weeks this season he has been among the top five highest rated quarterbacks, according to QBR. But TB has the 3rd ranked DefQBR. GB has faced a tougher schedule this season than TB. GB 5th ranked rushing offense will face off against TB #1 ranked rushing defense, and TB 8th worst rushing offense will match up against GB 8th best rushing defense. TB league worst 1-6-2 ATS at home since last year. GB 7-4 ATS on the road since last year. GB 6-2 ATS in divisional games since last year, including 2-0 this year with a scoring margin of 15 points per game. TB 3-5 ATS in divisional games since last year, including 1-1 this year with a scoring margin of 1.5 points per game.
    Good luck to all!

    Comment


    • #17
      POW 3-2

      Dallas +2 (Golden Nugget)

      Wrong team is favored here and Dallas will win straight up. I don't consider Dalton much of a downgrade a QB. While a different style of QB than Prescott, the fact of the matter is Dalton has been a starting QB in the league ever since he was drafted up until this year. Dalton was always effective Cincinnati when he had good weapons around him and he certainly has good weapons here. This is also the third straight road game Cardinals which is historically a negative. Cardinals are also overrated in my view, 3 wins against bad teams (yes, I'm calling the 49ers a bad team with all the injuries). The Cardinals losses have come against mediocre teams. I think Dallas is the best team the Cardinals have played so far this year and it's a mistake that they are favored. Cowboys win outright, I don't need the points but I'll take them anyway.

      Comment


      • #18
        Top ten members in this contest are picking at 86% success rate: 42-6-2 for the season. Congrats to COACHV29 and TEXAN 73 for being undefeated and halfway to the playoffs. But, as Dave commented, lots of people view all our write ups for insights, as we the member-contestants represent the site. I have been following the write ups of past contestants for many years before taking the plunge to become one myself. I'm glad I did. I feel I'm in honored company. Wonder if anyone has a list of all the past P.O.W. champions so we could follow their picks? Just a thought. Good luck to all, and stay safe!

        Comment


        • gcotton
          gcotton commented
          Editing a comment
          I don't have anything wrote down and unfortunately, when Dave switched sites for this Forum, he was not able to bring over all the old threads. And boy were there some doozies, lol...

      • #19
        P.O.W. 3 - 2 - 0

        Green Bay PK Bucs (CIRCA)

        Two outstanding QB's facing off but I will go with that frisky young un', Aaron Rodgers over the not as great relic but still decent, Tom Brady. Brady is slowly working Gronk into the play book which is a plus but by all appearances, Rodgers will be getting Davante Adams back. So far, the Pack has not missed a beat without Adams, so his return should be good for at least 3 - 5 pts.

        Comment


        • #20
          POW 2-3

          GB Pk(Westgate)

          I am buying Rodgers and GB as a legitimate contender and am not buying this undisciplined TB squad. Going with better QB, off the bye week to keep it rolling in a pick' em game. GB is already 2-0 SU and ATS vs. NFC South and I look for that to continue here.

          Comment


          • #21
            Originally posted by Blueandgold65 View Post
            Top ten members in this contest are picking at 86% success rate: 42-6-2 for the season. Congrats to COACHV29 and TEXAN 73 for being undefeated and halfway to the playoffs. But, as Dave commented, lots of people view all our write ups for insights, as we the member-contestants represent the site. I have been following the write ups of past contestants for many years before taking the plunge to become one myself. I'm glad I did. I feel I'm in honored company. Wonder if anyone has a list of all the past P.O.W. champions so we could follow their picks? Just a thought. Good luck to all, and stay safe!
            Perhaps we could form a new thread where past champions could volunteer the information regarding their past P.O.W. championship, and year if they remember it. All on the honor system of course, but that way we can honor them by remembering them, and of course follow the wisdom of their picks more closely in the future, just as we follow the supercontest past champions and distinguished long time members of this forum. Just a thought.

            Comment


            • Seahawk Rick
              Seahawk Rick commented
              Editing a comment
              LOL! I'm a past champion and you DO NOT want to follow my picks! Actually...Just go opposite and you'll be RICH!

            • Bucky
              Bucky commented
              Editing a comment
              Same here Rick lol

          • #22
            GCOTTON, Thought I quoted your reply here as well. Guess I'm not the sharpest stick in the woodpile. Lol.

            Comment


            • #23
              With all our heads in this, since we are all smarter together, we could probably put together a shared memory reconstruction of names of past P.O.W. champions. For example, I remember these:

              2017-2018 season
              Regular season P.O.W. Champion: don't remember
              P.O.W. Season/Playoff Co-Champions: Chamoinla,
              Mtheller, Ninerutefan
              Three way championship, a gift of Chamoinla's gracious sportsmanship. He limited his final wager on the super bowl, thus allowing Mtheller and Ninerutefan to create a three way championship tie by winning.

              2018-2019 season
              Regular season P.O.W. Co-Champions: East Coast, Florabamaboy
              P.O.W. Season/Playoff Champion: Phatman15

              2019-2020 season
              Regular season P.O.W. Champion: Tarb
              P.O.W. Season/Playoff Champion: FreeJack
              Last edited by Blueandgold65; 10-16-2020, 02:46 AM.

              Comment


              • mcgrath
                mcgrath commented
                Editing a comment
                I think Chamoinla might have also won it in 2016-17 or thereabouts because I remember sending him steak knives which I donated to that year’s Champ. He’s still around so maybe he can clarify.

                I (mcgrath) won the playoff around then as well, maybe 2015-16, as I remember getting a NFL. Gift card for $100. Also, I recall TonyLove having several very good years in a row, although I don’t know if he ever won.

            • #24
              NFL P.O.W. (3-2-0)

              Baltimore -7.5 (BetMGM, William Hill, Southpoint, Stations, )

              Baltimore's QB Jackson has not been as stellar as he was last season, but against Philadelphia he won't need to be for a two score win margin. The MVP for the Ravens this season is their defense. Their #2 defense won't have any problems with the 29th ranked offense of Philadelphia. Of course the Ravens also have their #1 special teams unit going up against the Eagles #11 special teams unit. The Ravens have one of the highest NetQBR ratings, while the Eagles, along with Niners and Falcons have negative NetQBR ratings among the worst in the league. Baltimore has average Net Rushing Yards of +79, while Philadelphia has average Net Rushing Yards of -15. Baltimore has the league's #4 turnover differential, largely because they are #2 in the NFL in Takeaways. Philadelphia has 2nd worst turnover differential, largely because they are worst in the league in giveaways. Eagles are also pretty banged up.

              Comment


              • #25
                POW 1-3-1
                Kansas City -4.5 (Westgate)

                While Mahomes, Andy & company were embarrassed by the Raiders, Buffalo was exposed by the Titans. I look for The Chiefs to bounce back BIG while the Bills continue to slide.

                Comment


                • #26
                  NFL P.O.W. 2020 (2-3-0, YTD)

                  BALTIMORE -7.5 (GOLDEN NUGGET)

                  Ravens best SU road team since 2019, averaging +19.0 net point differential per game, with an 9-1 record straight up and a seventh place 7-3 record against the spread as a road team. Eagles 5-5-1 SU and fourth worst 3-8 ATS at home since 2019, averaging +0.7 net point differential per game. Ravens averaging 2.0 takeaways per game and 1.0 giveaways per game for fourth best turnover margin in the league. Eagles averaging 1.0 takeaways a game and league worst 2.2 giveaways a game for the third worst turnover margin in the league. GLTA!

                  Comment


                  • #27
                    2020 NFL P.O.W. (2-3-0 YTD)

                    CAROLINA BLACK PANTHERS -1 (Fantasy Treasure Island)



                    I almost went on the JETS again, but I'm sober this week! CAR hasn't allowed a sack in two straight games but will be need to be on their game to keep Hicks and Mack off Teddy. CAR RB Mike Davis has a 15-yard rush, a 10-yard reception and at least five receptions in three straight games...Who needs McCaffrey! CAR is 3-0 straight up and ATS in their last three. Teddy is 30-9 vs the spread. They seem to be playing hard for Matt Rhule. Hoping CAR sucky run D can slow CHI down and squeak out a 3-point win.
                    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 10-16-2020, 02:13 PM. Reason: Forgot to put the line in...

                    Comment


                    • yisman
                      yisman commented
                      Editing a comment
                      what's the line?

                    • Seahawk Rick
                      Seahawk Rick commented
                      Editing a comment
                      I used invisible font the first time...

                  • #28
                    POW 1-4

                    AZ/DAL u55 (Westgate)

                    Banking on the Dallas offense's tempo changing with the QB switch. Perhaps we get more Zeke/Pollard rushes.

                    Comment


                    • #29
                      NFL P.O.W. (5-0-0)

                      Tampa Bay +1 (Circa - William Hill)

                      Showdown of two HOF QBs. Should be a really compelling game. Green Bay has played very well, but Tampa is getting better
                      as Brady adjusts to his new team. Not much difference in these two to speak of, but there is one caviot that plays in Tampa's favor.
                      The hot, humid weather. It should have an effect on the Pack and may make the difference in the 4th quarter. Here's hoping it does.
                      "Do what is right . . . and suffer the consequences" Sam Houston

                      Comment


                      • #30
                        1-4


                        Baltimore Ravens (a name I will never get used to following Baltimore) -9 1/2 Everyplace.

                        Eagles Stink. My picks stink. Case closed.

                        Lamar is due to get started playing up to MVP self. And Wentz is due to play down to his injured self.

                        That plus I agree with everything Strmchsr1 says about the game. He may still win anyhow!

                        Comment

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