Don't Bet Against the Patriots

[capcondo]

Here is the result of a query on the New England Patriots going back to 2001 (when Brady became a starter) which excludes the year 2008 when he was hurt most of the season

SU 227-70-0 (9.03, 76.4%)
ATS 172-116-9 (3.66 59.7%)

This to me shows that the betting line is not all that efficient since the average ATS margin is 3.66. Imagine playing against a 59.7% ATS percentage and expecting to win. You can imagine that there is some guy in Boston who got rich betting on the Patriots for the last 18 years and doesn't know a thing about football.

[capcondo]

Let me revise this what I've written above a bit. I included both the regular season and the playoffs in the numbers above. Below, I break out the regular season and the playoffs.

Regular Season:

SU 199-60-0 76.8 %
ATS 153-98-8 61.0%

Playoffs:

SU: 28-10-0
ATS: 19-18-1 51.4 %

So, the Patriots are human in the playoffs at about .500. In the regular season, however, they are 61.0 % ATS.

[capcondo]

A revision and update to this post written almost two months ago.

As I was watching the Patriots cover yet another game Sunday night, it occurred to me the Patriots play much better after the 3rd or 4th week of the season. This may be due to all the personnel changes they make in the off-season. So, I ran a query in the database I use to exclude the first 3 weeks and the first 4 weeks of the regular season. Excluding the first 3 weeks of the season produced the best results. This only applies to the regular season not the playoffs where, as you can see above, their results are mediocre.

Excluding the first 3 weeks of the regular season for the year 2001 to 2007 and 2009 to 2018 (when Brady is the starting quarterback; he was hurt for most of the year 2008 so I excluded that year), the results are as follows:

133-78-8 63.0 % ATS and an average cover margin of 4.49

For the first 3 weeks of the season, the results are a bit different as follows:

27-22 55.1 % ATS and an average cover margin of 0.95

Just out of curiosity, I ran this query for week 16 and 17 when the Patriots have clinched their playoff spot and many of the starters may not play. I was surprised at the results:

22-10 68.8% ATS and an average cover margin of 6.02

Week 16 and 17 are actually better (with a much smaller sample) than the results after the 3rd week of the season.

To me, this refutes the argument that the odds makers make the adjustments (TNF is another example); or maybe bettors like to lose betting against the Patriots.

If you think you can make money betting against a team that covers 63% of the time, be my guest.

[Barryt]

Tx for this
If you want to be more accurate re Brady you should exclude the deflate suspension games. They went 3-1 I think with Jimmy G and Brissett.
the only thing that bothers me is the Miami matchup in Miami. Remember last years loss. Cutler looked like an MVP! I had already queried this and here’s the result

8-10-0 (1.44, 44.4%)
7-10-1 (-2.14, 41.2%)

Seems Belichick Let’s them have a beach house and party!

[capcondo]

BarryT,

Good point. You'll remember that deflategate occurred the first 4 weeks of the season. Since I'm focusing on games after the first 3 weeks of the season, I ignored it. Your data on the trip to Miami is an interesting point. But, if they want to play KC for the conference championship in Foxboro instead of KC (if either one of them gets that far), they need to keep winning.

BTW, I'm not a Patriot fan. This is all about the raw numbers.

[capcondo]

BarryT,

After considering what you wrote here, I've decided not to play the Patriots game on Sunday. Something doesn't feel quite right. And I have a method for the NFL playoffs that works well and I don't want to diminish resources. Thanks for posting this.

[capcondo]

Thx to BarryT for saving me money last week by not betting the Patriot-Fish game. This week the Patriots coming off a loss travel to the Steelers. I ran two queries on the Patriots coming off a loss (I guess you could call what happened to them a loss last week!). The first one is based only on what happened after the 3rd week of the season. That was so good that I ran the query for all games in the regular season.

Week > 3: SU 39-9-0 (11.46 81.2%)
ATS 32-14-2 (7.32 69.6%)

Week 1-17: SU 45-12-0 (10.75 78.9%)
ATS 38-17-2 (6.88 69.1%)

Now, here is how they have done vs. Steelers regular season only. The first one is coming off a loss in the previous game and then their overall record vs. the Steelers SU and ATS.

Off a Loss: SU 3-0-0 (6.33 100.0%)
ATS 3-0-0 (8.17 100.0%)

Overall: SU 8-2-0 (7.60 80%)
ATS: 8-2-0 (4.50 80%)

I'm on the Patriots Sunday at any price.

[TARB]

Yeah, it looks good, but the Steelers are fighting to just make the playoffs. If the Steelers lose and the 8-point favored Ravens win, then the Ravens will have the lead in the AFC North Division. New England, on the other hand, has virtually locked up the AFC East Division and is fighting for a first round bye. NE is currently tied with Houston for the #2 spot, but wins the tie-breaker over Houston. If Houston loses on Saturday, then NE is still ahead of the Texans, even with a loss to the Steelers. Besides all of that, this is not the same Tom Brady at quarterback, but a much diminished talent due to age. Don't sell the Steelers short. Don't rely on ancient history, bet on the talent on the field. That pretty much makes this a toss up and the game will be played in Pittsburgh.

I have a mixed up rooting interest on the game. Want Houston to get the #2 seed, but I also want Baltimore to win the AFC North Division.

[TARB]

NE is 3-4 on the road this year, hardly a recommendation to lay points at Pittsburgh.

[TARB]

So, I guess that New England CAN lose two games in a row. It is very hard to win a game when you can only score ten points.

[DaveyShines]

New England is starting to show the wear and tear of so many postseasons. Edelman and Gronk are looking worn out. And Brady is missing throws that he wouldn't have in the past. Father Time is catching up with him too. Pittsburgh needed this game more than the Pats did.

[haydenkeats]

Agree Davey, it’s been a while since the Pats have beat themselves, never mind in back to back games, 14 penalties and at least 5 dropped passes.

[marcbryanjacob]

Brady was my last holdout TY. Now it official: there ain't a damn QB in ftb I wanna bet on anymore. Maybe Bo Levi Mitchell...Brady cost me last 2 wks and looks like a lost rookie out there. Gronk's brutal too. This tm should have been drilled by Falcs and Jags and couldn't handle Foles. Ur right Tarb they're down several notches. Barely top 3rd of NFL.

[TARB]

Is anybody looking to bet NE -12.5 points over Buffalo this week?
Remember, NE scored only 10 points last week at Pittsburgh.

[haydenkeats]

Josh Gordon isn’t going to help their cause, but who didn’t see that coming.