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How do NFL teams fare following.a BYE

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  • How do NFL teams fare following.a BYE

    How do NFL teams fare after a bye? So far teams off a bye are 1-1 but 0-2 ATS

    I’ve always wondered about this ,but now I have a tool,SDQL to check it out.The results surprised me

    Here’s the record for all games


    SU: 459-420-2 (0.92, 52.2%)
    ATS: 438-425-18 (0.51, 50.8%)
    So basically the team off a bye has a very slight advantage 4%, but when the spread is taken into account there is no advantage.

    Breaking this down into H and A

    Home
    SU: 261-193-1 (2.80, 57.5%)
    ATS: 213-231-11 (0.26, 48.0%)
    Home teams do well but they are overbet as they lose ATS.

    Home Favourites
    SU: 210-99-0 (5.83, 68.0%)
    ATS: 144-157-8 (-0.01, 47.8%)
    Home favourites do very well but once again they are overbet as they lose ATS.

    Home Dogs lose badly but hold their own ATS
    SU: 49-87-1 (-3.44, 36.0%)
    ATS: 67-67-3 (1.31, 50.0%)



    Away
    SU: 181-211-1 (-1.14, 46.2%)
    ATS: 209-178-6 (0.89, 54.0%)
    So away teams lose but they cover the spread just below the desired 55%

    Away favourites
    SU: 102-37-0 (7.46, 73.4%)
    ATS: 88-50-1 (2.61, 63.8%)
    Well this is a situation one could bet blindly. I would say unless you have a very good reason not to , BET ON all AF coming off a bye.

    One word of caution. This stat is for all weeks but the success is better later in the season.

    Weeks 4-8
    SU: 50-25-0 (5.36, 66.7%)
    ATS: 43-31-1 (0.61, 58.1%
    Weeks 9-12
    SU: 35-7-0 (9.90, 83.3%) T
    ATS: 28-14-0 (4.75, 66.7%)
    I think this has more to do with the bettors being sharper later in the season, than anything else.

    "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
    “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

  • #2
    Small error above for weeks 9-12 I queried >9 instead of >8 and it would be weeks 9-13
    SU: 52-12-0 (9.92, 81.2%)
    ATS: 45-19-0 (4.95, 70.3%



    Chicago Bears, -3.5 fall into this category this Sunday.

    Future Potential plays where the away team will likely be the FAV.

    Wk 7 [email protected] ( look ahead is pick) DET -2 @ MIA( esp if CHI wins)

    Wk 8 Sea @ DET ( but sorta think Det will be small Fav)

    Wk 9 ATL @ Was ; LAC @ SEA,[email protected] Dallas

    Wk 10 [email protected] Indy,( both off bye!)

    Wk11 [email protected] Was, [email protected]

    Wk12 [email protected] Indy, NE @ NYJ

    Wk13 [email protected] OAK, LAR @ DET
    "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
    “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

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    • #3
      Interesting stats Barry. Thanks for sharing.

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      • #4
        Point spread weekly has interesting stats for teams PRIOR to their bye week

        Comment


        • #5
          Ok Chi lost to Miami as away fav(although they did have a healthy lead at one time but faded in the heat. I didn’t bet
          By serendipity’s Miami receives another NFC Central team the Lions off their bye. Lions small fav -2.5.s
          The weather humidex will be 87 as opposed to 97 last week. Because of Osweiller I’m going with the trend and bet on DET -2.5
          Oops it’s up to -3 so I’ll just bet the ml at 1.64(and 65% win rate)
          "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
          “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

          Comment


          • #6
            Barry, thanks for providing the stats. Interesting that the Dolphins find themselves on the play against side in consecutive weeks. Odd scheduling quirk that they have consecutive home games versus an opponent off a bye.

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            • #7
              Week7 Detroit qualified and won
              week 8 no plays
              week 9 No plays . LAC opened as the Fav but approaching game time SEA is -1.
              week10 Looks like no [email protected] [email protected]
              week11 Hou @Wash? MINN @ CHI.?
              Last edited by Barryt; 11-04-2018, 10:40 AM. Reason: changed week 10
              "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
              “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

              Comment


              • #8
                Away Fav off bye
                SU: 78-30-0 (7.83, 72.2%)
                ATS: 72-36-0 (3.50, 66.7%)
                And after week 8
                SU: 43-10-0 (10.06, 81.1%)
                ATS: 40-13-0 (5.81, 75.5%)
                This week it’s HOU [email protected] Wash

                1-1 this year with Bears losing and Lions winning @ Miami.

                Next week it’s [email protected] the Jets but both are off the bye.
                "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

                Comment


                • #9

                  I qeried how teams do MNF then playing Sunday once again AF did well
                  86-38-0 (6.60, 69.4%)
                  68-53-3 (1.68, 56.2%
                  there are no plays this week or next
                  Wk14 Pha @Dallas
                  wk15 [email protected] SF
                  if they are Fav.
                  "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                  “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    AF off a bye2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS this year .
                    This week NE is 11 point fav @ Jets
                    then week 13 LAR is 7 point fav @DET and KC is 14 points @ Raiders.
                    "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
                    “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

                    Comment

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