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2019 NFL P.O.W. Week #16 (December 25 - 28) Post Plays Here

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  • 2019 NFL P.O.W. Week #16 (December 25 - 28) Post Plays Here

    This is the thread for the 2020 VFV NFL P.O.W. contest. The following are the rules for this year (the same as in the past):

    1. All contestants must be a member in good standing with VFV Forums
    2. Players make one (1) single play ATS each week during the NFL regular season
    3. A correct play results in one (1) point being awarded. A "push" or tie, results in a half point (1/2) being awarded
    4. An Incorrect play results in zero (0) points being awarded
    5. All lines MUST be taken from the following website each week: http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/
    6. All lines must be -110 or less (must be posted on above site...no buying 1/2 point)
    7. Only Vegas Sports Books listed on the VI website will be allowed
    8. PLEASE SEE NOTE BELOW FOR ELIGIBLE BOOKS!
    9. The following selections are allowed: Full Game Side, Full Game Total, First Half Side, First Half Total (NO MONEYLINES ALLOWED)
    10. Plays MUST be submitted each week by kickoff of last scheduled game.
    11. Plays must be in the following format (or close to it):

    2019 NFL P.O.W. (0-0-0 (post your current record here))

    Atlanta Falcons +3 (Golden Nugget)
    (This is where you will post your reasoning for this selection. It doesn't have to be a book or even a full paragraph, but more than just "I think the Falcons are better.")

    12. Myself, Seahawk Rick (the artist formerly known as Cybergolf) or any other I deem so, will have final ruling on if a play is valid (ie: Wrong line, Wrong Book, Not enough reasoning given, etc)
    13. The first couple of weeks I will give the benefit of the doubt to any newcomers on here...veterans, you know the rules, LMEAO
    14. NO EDITING!!! (ironic, as this was edited by DaveTuley LMEAO)...you can't change your pick after you post it as this supposed to mirror the real world where you lock in your bet at the current number...if you need to clarify something in original post (typed in wrong team or line, or forget to cite sportsbooks, etc.), please quote in new post to bring it to the moderators attention
    15. For the first time, this year, Week 17 will be worth 2 points for a correct selection and 1 point for a push.
    16. To qualify for the playoff round of this competition, players must have a total of 10 points by the end of the regular season (week 17)...important note: your points will be the number of Units you start with in the playoff portion of the contest that runs through the Super Bowl and will be run by DaveTuley with locked-in spreads and totals, though Tuley often will give extra options if the market has variances such as Patriots -6.5 but also Steelers +7 being available); still debating maximum units allowed for playoff round (currently 5-unit max bet each playoff weekend).
    17. Since we are not doing the SuperContest Mirror Contest like past years and this is the OFFICIAL handicapping ViewFromVegas handicapping contest for the 2020 NFL season, DaveTuley is upgrading the grand prize to 2 nights hotel in Las Vegas (sorry, you have to get yourself here) and dinner for 2 with DaveTuley along with $100 gift card and a ViewFromVegas shirt (season must end with a Super Bowl champion for this to be awarded)...he's also giving a $100 gift card and a VFV shirt to the top point-earner in the regular season (minimum 10 weeks)...we've had VFV Forum members offer up additional prizes in the past including cash and steak knives, so please contact DaveTuley if you have anything to add).
    18. ****Thanks to Compass Rose for starting discussion on this one****18. Any selection made, and then for whatever reason, the game is officially postponed or canceled, a substitute P.O.W. may be posted at the then available lines. If no substitute play is made, the original play will be graded as 0 points.

    If you have any questions, feel free to ask and best of luck this season!

    ******GOING FORWARD, HERE ARE THE ONLY BOOKS ELIGIBLE TO USE FOR THIS CONTEST. ANY PLAYS POSTED NOT USING ONE OF THESE BOOKS WILL BE GRADED AS A LOSS. THIS WILL SERVE AS YOUR ONLY REMINDER FOR THIS NEW RULE!!!********

    WESTGATE
    BETMGM
    CIRCA
    WILLIAM HILL
    STATIONS
    GOLDEN NUGGET
    TREASURE ISLAND
    SOUTH POINT
    CAESARS
    WYNN

    ONLY ENTRIES WITH AT LEAST 7 POINTS ARE ELIGIBLE TO CONTINUE IN THIS YEARS CONTEST.

  • #2
    In Week 15, we went a combined 16-20-1(.432) ATS
    Thru 15 weeks, we are now a combined 373-379-15(.486) ATS

    In Week 15, we welcomed 3 more entries into the Playoffs: EAST COAST, RACING CAT & TEXAN 73 join the others already in.
    Name Win Loss Tie Total
    TARB 13 2 0 13
    ICE TEA 2 12 2 1 12.5
    WOODEE 12 3 0 12
    ASTROID M 10 4 1 10.5
    BARNSTORM 10 5 0 10
    EAST COAST 10 5 0 10
    RACING CAT 10 5 0 10
    TEXAN 73 10 5 0 10
    MRVOLO 9 5 1 9.5
    2HOLLYWOOD2 9 6 0 9
    DURBIFY 9 6 0 9
    JIMMYJAM4508 9 6 0 9
    JPDAWG 9 6 0 9
    AARON24 8 6 1 8.5
    DEANO 8 6 1 8.5
    COACHV29 8 7 0 8
    FREEJACK 8 5 0 8
    JD MOOSE 1950 8 8 0 8
    STR8OUTTADURANGO 8 7 0 8
    TAKETHEREDEYE 8 7 0 8
    MUDSHARK 7 7 1 7.5
    AMAZING MOM 7 8 0 7
    ARCHIE 8 7 8 0 7
    AZTEC10 7 8 0 7
    BUCKEYEFAN80 7 8 0 7
    CHAMOINLA 7 8 0 7
    COMPASS ROSE 7 8 0 7
    DUKOWSKI 7 8 0 7
    GCOTTON 7 8 0 7
    HEY RUBE! 7 8 0 7
    MATTYSHARP 7 4 0 7
    NINERUTEFAN 7 7 0 7
    PHATMAN15 7 7 0 7
    SEAHAWK RICK 7 8 0 7
    YISMAN 7 8 0 7
    Last edited by gcotton; 12-23-2020, 06:39 AM.

    Comment


    • Aztec10
      Aztec10 commented
      Editing a comment
      Again wondering how those of us with 7 points are still alive in this contest? 2 games remaining to garner points, only gets us to 9 points. Please advise.

    • Taketheredeye
      Taketheredeye commented
      Editing a comment
      Aztec, this year week 17 is worth 2 points.

    • Aztec10
      Aztec10 commented
      Editing a comment
      Thank you for clarifying, might have helped to read through the rules again : )

  • #3
    13-2

    Rams +2.5 ... Westgate, Circa

    The Rams need to beat Seattle to win the NFC West Division after a devastating loss to the Jets. In my opinion, the Rams are a better, more talented team than the Seahawks. The Jets game should be a wakeup call for the Rams. The Jets upset of the Rams just proves Pete Rozelle's mantra that on any given Sunday any NFL team can beat any other NFL team.

    Comment


    • Woodee12
      Woodee12 commented
      Editing a comment
      LOVE the rams too in this spot and jumped on them early in real money at my book.
      Since you took them here, I have to find something else in hopes of catching you. Great run by the way!
      Hope we both cash with the rams though!

  • #4
    NFL POW 8-7 [8 pts]

    Over 54 Tampa Bay vs Detroit [Circa]

    Brady and his stable of WR's should put up 30+ in this one. Playing indoors will help both Offenses. Detroit's D is very under manned and won't be able to pressure the Bucs. As a result Stafford will need to play catch up and fling the ball all over the yard which since the new HC has taken over their Offense is playing much faster. Swift is back which helps the Lions on Offense. This one gets to 60.

    GL to all

    Comment


    • #5
      NFL P.O.W. (7-8-0)

      Rams +2 (Stations, South Point)

      Some sites showing this a pick, so getting +2 points a bonus. Seahawks lost to Rams by 7 a month ago, and Seattle 3-7 against the spread the past 10 games, 1-3 against the spread the past 4 games, averaging 18 points the past 3 non-jets games. Rams 6-4 against the spread the past 10 games, 2-2 against the spread the past 4 games, averaging 27 points the past 3 non-jets games. GLTA!

      Comment


      • #6
        8-5

        NO -7 William Hill

        The Saints get to exercise the demons of revenge pent up from years of being cheated their right to advance in the playoffs..... Brees was rusty but improved as the game went on. He even took a hit! Cousins is Jekyl and Hyde.... I think if the Saints get up early that it will force Cousins to make mistakes. The Saints defense has been the real story here. I will take the Saints at home to win this and keep their bye hopes alive. Saints 34-17. GLTA

        Comment


        • #7
          NFL POW (7-8)

          LARams +2 STATIONS

          Both teams have incentives to play hard, other than divisional rivalry. Rams clinch a playoff berth with win, while Seahawks clinch division with win. Rams #5 FPI, #15 offense, #2 defense. Seahawks #8 FPI, #4 offense, #20 defense. Rams #6 DVOA, #7 offensive DVOA, #4 defensive DVOA, and weighted DVOA shows improvement in recent games. Seahawks #9 DVOA, #4 offensive DVOA, #20 defensive DVOA, and weighted DVOA shows a decline in recent games. Rams has higher Strength of Schedule, Strength of Victory and combined total. Rams 2-1 ATS as a road dog and +6 point margin of victory, Seahawks 5-2 ATS as a home fav and +8.9 point margin of victory. Rams defense #1 in fewest yards allowed per play. Seattle defense below league average. Seattle offense #7 in most yards gained per play, Rams #14 in most yards gained per play. Rams 5th in takeaways, Seahawks 13th in takeaways. Rams 5-1 SU in last 6 games versus Seahawks. Seahawks 6-1 SU in last 7 games at home. Rams 6-4 ATS last 10 games versus Seahawks, and Rams 3-0 ATS last 3 games versus Seahawks. Rams 3-1 ATS in last 4 Decembers versus Seahawks. Rams 4-2 ATS in last 6 road games versus Seahawks. Seahawks 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games, and 2-5 ATS in last 7 divisional games. RB Gordon will not play this weekend, and Seahawks have three times the injuries this week as the Rams do. Forecast weather is not an issue this game. Good luck and Happy Holidays everyone!

          Comment


          • #8
            12-3

            NY GIANTS +11 (CIRCA) OVER BALTIMORE

            No real meths behind the madness except this looks like the trickiest game on the board with the Ravens really NEEDING a win. I have seen that work out over the years for the underdog that is already almost eliminated. Ravens have played down to their competition and have been going all out for a couple week now fighting for their playoff lives after coming in as a super bowl fav preseason. As wacky as the NFL is, the Giants can win this one SU and muck everything up for the Ravens and maybe keeping their dim playoff hopes alive. Plus the Giants looked horrible on SNF this week and the betting public saw this giving us a little line value too. Circa is at +11 now as Giants QB is undecided and see it staying closer to 10.5 or 10 by kick if Jones is announced.

            Good luck and have a good Christmas guys. .

            Comment


            • #9
              I had IND last week as a push and it’s marked as a loss. Can you please advise. Thanks.

              Comment


              • gcotton
                gcotton commented
                Editing a comment
                Sir, as "Ice Tea 2" said on the next page, you failed to post what line you were using. I was unable to verify your line as being valid. By the time I went to grade all plays on Tuesday, the line history from BetMGM was no longer available on the VI screen. I had no choice but to grade this as a loss.

            • #10
              POW 10-5

              Raiders +3 (Stations or South Point)

              I faded the Raiders last week but I am on them this week. This line is simply inflated. The look ahead line last week had Raiders a small favorite. I projected this game as a pick so getting a FG has a lot of appeal. Not sure that I even care too much which QB starts for the Raiders although it appears to be Derek Carr now. I'm certainly aware that the Raiders defense has been hot garbage for a while but another aspect I really like about this game is the Raiders rushing offense versus the Dolphins defense. Dolphins are allowing 4.6 yards per rush attempt which ranks in the bottom quarter of the league. Raiders should be able to run the ball and control the clock which should help mitigate the defensive weakness. I already have a ticket on the Raiders money line and I will take the +3 here. Merry Christmas to all!

              Comment


              • RacingCat
                RacingCat commented
                Editing a comment
                What was that? Last 4:00 of that game was ridiculous. I'll take the win here and also the Supercontest but disappointing loss on the money line. To be fair, probably didn't deserve the money line win anyway because that pass interference call on the Dolphins right before the 2:00 warning was weak. But wow, how do you let a guy stand alone wide open along the sideline with :13 left for a 34 yard completion? Inexcusable.

            • #11
              POW 8-7
              Gottons Dirty Birds +11 (Wynn)
              Atlanta
              Kc haven't beaten anyone by double digits since week 8. Injuries are starting to pile up and just want to get out of this one alive.
              Falcons have their own problems, but scoring isn't one them.
              Plenty of room for a back door cover if need be.

              GLA and Stay Safe
              Merry Christmas

              Comment


              • gcotton
                gcotton commented
                Editing a comment
                Best post of the week, lol.

            • #12
              NFL P.O.W. (7-8-0)

              Rams +1.5 (south point)

              This game is already a pick offshore,I missed the 2.5 so I better grab the 1.5 points before is gone.If there's one team the Seahawks haven't been able to figure out over the past few years, it's the Los Angeles Rams. In the past six meetings between these two teams, the Rams have gone 5-1 straight up and a big reason that's happened is because they've been able to pile up points on Seattle's defense. In those six games, the Rams have averaged 31.8 per game and this will be the worst Seahawks' defense L.A. has faced in that span. The Rams have also covered three straight times in this series, including back in Week 10 when they beat the Seahawks 23-16 as a three-point favorite.
              GL.

              Comment


              • #13
                2019 NFL P.O.W. (9-6-0)

                Miami Dolphins -2.5 (William Hill)

                Had written this as a Las Vegas Raiders +3 (Wynn) pick but completely flipped during write-up. It's a playoff game for the Dolphins, there is no excuse to lose to this Raiders team. It's really that simple. I'll rude with marbles in this one under a FG.

                Honestly, because I think the Dolphins dominate this game and win - but apparently so does over 80% of the public. It's a bad sport for Miami - only it's not. There's no such thing in a "playoff" game. I think with Carr back at less than 100% is actually easier for Brian Flores and that Dolphins defense to gameplan for and be aggressive. The raiders are not good. The Dolphins are. The same can be said for the Broncos game which Miami got dominated in but still. I'm thoroughly convinced Miami wins this game - in fact, they should dominate. But since some shops are showing 85% of tickets agree with me - I have to take Raiders. And I hope I'm wrong!

                Changed my mind - pushes are no good. Miami -2.5 (William Hill)

                Comment


                • #14
                  7-8

                  Lions +10.5 (will hill)

                  Do or die time. Might as well get it out of the way early. Taking the double digit home dog to survive Brady and co. Plus one model I use has TB winning by 5 so there’s some value there. GLA

                  Comment


                  • Buckeyefan80
                    Buckeyefan80 commented
                    Editing a comment
                    That didn’t take long. GL to those still alive and those already in.

                  • RacingCat
                    RacingCat commented
                    Editing a comment
                    Sometimes better just to know you're drawing dead early rather than agonize for 3 hours only to lose late. Good luck to you in the future.

                • #15
                  NFL POW 8-6-1

                  AZ Cardinal -5.5 (Westgate)

                  I got burned last week when the Cardinals covered the number against an improving Philly team. Now they get a reeling 49 team starting their third string QB at the same number - I’ll take it. Hoping they can show some consistency that was missing earlier this season. GLTA.

                  Comment

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