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The Limper Line – NFL – Week 16

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  • The Limper Line – NFL – Week 16

    When I first began projecting NFL scores in 2010, I used Nik Bonaddio’s Number Fire projections to measure my model’s success – which was disappointing to say the least. I had been doing NBA projections for about 10 years at the time, and my model was doing well on basketball, so that my initial NFL flub inclined me to throw in the towel on football. The NFL is a lot harder to project than the NBA, with a great many more players, and far fewer games from which to mine data; and, although I continued to tinker with the algorithm, and using the results myself, it was only after I’d pulled even with Number Fire’s 2012 NFL season record, that I began posting on a privately owned web site – which was used primarily by math guys and statisticians.

    Posting on bettors websites, where users expect winners handed to them, is a whole different thing; but, as a tool or guide for the NFL bettor, statistical projections are pretty damned useful.

    I still use Number Fire projections, along with Team Rankings, as the standard by which to compare my model’s results – which I’ve included below (and, although the Limper has led these buggers all year long, we’re now all tied up on ATS results). I’ve also tacked on how Vegas line-setters have done this season with their own projections based on opening spreads (which is not really fair, but who wants to be fair to Las Vegas sportsbooks).

    Anyway, my model has, this week, thrown in the towel on favorites – going with 8 dogs; and, given how nutty NFL teams get in the last 2 regular season games, Week 17 may be even more dog-like. GLTA and Merry Xmas!!!

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