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Week 17 NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

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  • Week 17 NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

    BROWN OUT...

    We knew Covid was gonna mess with the season but didn't affect too many games most of the year to the level of what happened with CLEVE and losing players to the Covid list on the weekend. IFF you had a Sunday kickoff deadline, no worries, BUT, Thursday deadlines eff you up! 33% out of Adam 2 and 50% out of Adam 1 PLUS another 10% with ARI and HOU going down the drain. A relatively quiet year as far as big upsets were concerned has taken no prisoners the last two weeks.

    Now the fun realllllly begins going into the week like no other when it's hard to tell who's ready to roll someone, and who is ready to roll out of town.

    Volo and MtHeller are in the money round where you pick right in Week 17, you'll guarantee yourself some cheeeeeese! Mtheller is gonna hedge his bet to make sure he makes some righteous dinero by going on INDY with his pick but doing the ML on JAX to cinch a really nice payday and not having to stress too much even though he'll be living and dying on every INDY play as that gets him a bigger piece of holiday pie!

    Volo is still kicking it around as a win in Adam 2 gets you a share of half the dough, but the bigger lettuce is found in the playoffs where any week could end it.

    Now if your pool is down in single or low double-digits, the zag vs zig play comes into your mind. It usually takes balls of granite but nobody remembers who comes in 2nd, and an aggressive play might net you a BIG chuck of a pool and make you a legend in your own mind!

    Anyone else alive???? Let us know! CONGRATS to ALL of you that made it this far...Now get it to the finish line!


    THE WEEK OF MYSTERY...


    JAX @ INDY...INDY has played well this year and made PITT look like a division II team at their place until Ben the rapist and his boys made one hell of a comeback to beat them in the end. INDY back at home with a shot at the playoffs where they HAVE TO win to have a chance and need the TENN men to drop one. Games start at the same time so the Colts will bring their A-Game.

    TENN @ HOU...I'd like it more if TENN was at home as Mr. Watt read his team the riot act after the CINN loss. Will they respond? Do they have enough to respond with? I think they'll give it their best shot and not mail it in.

    NO @ CAR...I think this is a bad spot for NO as CAR showed they are giving it their all and whooped up on WFT. Maybe not a huge win but it will give them even more of a boost to try to take down the Saints. Weather won't be much of a factor but NO goes on the road to try to get the No. 1 seed and a feisty bunch they will face.

    BALT @ CINN...BALT with four-wins in a row and got some good mo-mo going to try to sneak in the WC playoff door. CINN with a nice win vs HOU, but BALT is a bigger monster to slay and I'd consider them strongly.

    SEA @ SF...Playing in ARI but SF lost a few starters in Williams at O-Tackle and WR Aiyuk both out with injuries. SEA hasn't looked like a playoff team that would go far up until Week 16 when they shut down a Top-5 offense. The defense has finally gelled and that will spell trouble for a 49 team that will have to wait until next year for the playoffs and SEA will show them the door to the off-season with an L.

    ATL @ TB...ATL has been giving it their best shot this last part of the season and gave KC everything they could handle for a damn kicker screwed them out of tying it up late in the game. I think they'll go down to TB and want to beat the human TB, and have enough on their side of the ball to give the Buccos a game IMHO.

    PITT @ CLEVE...CLEVE favored by 6...Before PITT's comeback vs INDY, I'd say that wasn't very far off but PITT might finally have come out of their eggnog laden brain-fog to become their old selves. Hard to say. CLEVE should be back at full strength to give the Steely ones their best shot as both teams will want to win with something on the line in the playoff picture.

    MINN @ DET...Nothing to play for except pride and bonuses. I'd give MINN the edge but putting a survivor pick on them will take great fortitude....AND A LOT OF JD!

    Check injuries as best you can but Covid is the only hidden bad guy that could eff up a pick in Adam's pool. The Sunday pickers can flip out of a late surprise.

    Look at who your competitors still have left and possibly go a different direction as people at this stage want to cling to Mama's apron... You never know when a LAR/JETS game can happen...Enjoy the STRESS!!!!
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 12-29-2020, 05:31 AM.

  • #2
    Who says nobody cares.Will put this in this week’s edition.Was all set to play Colts Sunday but just found out that they could miss playoffs even if they beat Jax.Rather complicated but if they win and Tennessee loses they win South Title but if Tennessee,Miami,Cleveland and Baltimore win they are out according to USA Today.The tricky part only Tennessee and their game is at 4 ET,so if they need Tennessee to lose and it does not look it will happen how will it effect them.Just another wrinkle.

    Comment


    • mtheller
      mtheller commented
      Editing a comment
      The Dolphins can’t hang with Buffalo with Tua starting. Buffalo needs a win to lock up the 2 seed. Which also means Pitt has to win paired with a Buffalo loss to get the 3 seed. Still not sure how Cleveland is a 7 point favorite their. Pittsburgh was playing shitty, but turned it around in the 2nd half on Sunday. With that said, if I had Tennessee, I would strongly consider them, as they control their own destiny. Houston is most likely done after that cincy loss.

  • #3
    They both play at 4:25est... INDY will try to win unless they see TENN up by 40 at half time.

    Comment


    • Mrvolo
      Mrvolo commented
      Editing a comment
      I now have put Titans in my equation because their win gives them AFC South.Will kick it around but my partner loves big favorites.

    • mtheller
      mtheller commented
      Editing a comment
      Even if Tennessee is up by 40 at the half, Indy should be as well.

    • mtheller
      mtheller commented
      Editing a comment
      I like Indy just because I can win money betting the Jags ML.

  • #4
    Also to note, ESPN’s FPI gives Indy an 80% chance to make the playoffs, higher than the other 4 none clinchers.

    Comment


    • #5
      Only 1 in Adam 2 has Tennessee and that is our entry.Colts have 9 left.Will have to think this thru.

      Comment


      • Mrvolo
        Mrvolo commented
        Editing a comment
        Just checked our picks and we used Tennessee so back to Colts and with mtheller’s help we can get a W.Will also follow him with a ML on Jax.

      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        What's your team name in the pool?

      • Mrvolo
        Mrvolo commented
        Editing a comment
        Marty1

    • #6
      Steelers announce Big Ben is sitting vs Cleveland.

      Comment


      • mtheller
        mtheller commented
        Editing a comment
        I locked in 7:1 on the money line. $400 to collect $3200 if Jacksonville wins.

      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Does Ben the rapist play defense?

      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Nice play mtheller... Do you make more if Jax wins?

    • #7
      I'm curious if any posters or lurkers here are alive in the $2.39 million Circa Survivor. They had 1,139 entries at $1,000 apiece and then owner Derek Stevens offered a $1 million bonus to be shared if anyone went perfect through the season (including a special "Thanksgiving Week" that includes just the 3 scheduled games on Turkey Day, though that turned into just 2 games to choose from with the Ravens-Steelers game postponed until that "week" was done)

      I proxy for 1 of the remaining 35 entries and wondering if anyone else here is alive in it (and especially interesting if any coming to town to make some hedge bets).

      Comment


      • #8
        97K if they all pick a winner...Minus the hedge bets you'd think they would all make but who they have left to hedge against makes a big difference on how much they have to lay out.

        I hope your guy wins a big slice Dave so you get a nice piece of cheese for yourself! 🧀

        Comment


        • #9
          I'm still alive! (Eddie Vedder voice)

          Long time upstate NY lurker that appreciates the guidance of this thread and site.

          I am one of three alive in my local winner take all pool ($1550). Automatic chop after week 17.

          The same 2 of us have Baltimore and New Orleans left to use. I am going Baltimore.

          Minnesota or Cleveland looks like the best choice for the entry without Baltimore.

          Best of Luck

          Comment


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            Hey Rickyvaughn...Great to have you post! Keep doing it!

            As I write this, BALT looks like they will get to part of the chop, and maybe the outright win if CLEVE and MINN lose! Good job!!!

            Let us know how it all goes and keep posting as you have a good sense of these pools to get this far!

          • RickyVaughn44
            RickyVaughn44 commented
            Editing a comment
            Thanks Seahawks Rick. I ended up chopping with one other team who also took Baltimore.

            Somehow the other entry made a $516.66 blunder in week 17!! They took Green Bay for the 2nd time, so they are eliminated by default. Can't believe it. Guy running the pool didn't even catch it. He sent the sheet saying good luck you 3! I waited for the game to start, then said, you mean you 2?

            Best of luck to anyone playing into the playoffs!

          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            Congrats on cashing!!!! No stress either as BALT took control early.

            That sucks for guy taking GB a 2nd time but mistakes are gonna happen unless a pool is run online with automatic ways to manage picks. Weird the pool manager didn't catch it but maybe he was hands off and left it to the players to police themselves and check their own work. As bad as 'Missed Deadline.' Ugh.

        • #10
          Staying with Colts and ML bet on Jax.

          Comment


          • #11
            Survivorgrid.com...

            The most teams at 1% or more all season. Many zag instead of zigging with the big favorites that are a magnet for most pickers. We'll see how it plays out. Might be a chalk weekend or one last upset might make some risk-takers a big payday...Let the games begin!

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            • #12
              Lizzy said I could come over and watch some fireworks go off! I'm thinking, oh yeah, it's GO TIME FINALLY!!!! Got to her place, she opened the door, handed me a stick of dynamite, lit it, blew me a kiss, shut the door, booooooom...Felt like the effing Coyote in a Roadrunner cartoon. Damn...

              INDY...They screwed me over vs JAX at the beginning of the season, but at home with a playoff spot on the line, they will rise to the occasion vs a JAX team that will have Trevor as their QB next year.


              W1: BUFF (W)
              W2: ARI (W)
              W3: ATL (L)
              W4: LAR (W)
              W5: DAL (W)
              W6: MIA (W)

              W7: BUFF (W)
              W8: PHIL (W)
              W9: PITT (W)
              W10: NO (W)
              W11: BALT (L)
              W12: NYG (W)
              W13: GB (W)
              W14: SEA (W)
              W15: TENN (W)
              W16: HOU (L)
              W17: INDY

              Happy New Year my dear my sweet! I'll be back...After the burns heal.


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              • #13
                ADAM POOL SUMMARIES...

                Well, two surprising things...A 'Missed Deadline' this late in the season with a late pick deadline to boot! Someone took ATL! I wouldn't be totally surprised if they won, but you don't get extra money if you pick a dog to win...BUT, he has TWO picks left and also took TB to guarantee a slice of Survivor pie. I'm not sure what I'd do it I had two picks left in the last week as going into the playoffs with two-picks would be huge. Anyway...Pretty good to get this far with one pick, let alone two. He started with three.
                O
                ADAM 1 ADAM 2
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                Comment


                • mtheller
                  mtheller commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Lol. A lot of people are anti-hedging bets, but this is more along the lines of hedging against the 17th leg of your parlay. If the guy has some playoff crystal ball and wants to guarantee an entry to win the playoffs out right, then he made the right call.

                • Seahawk Rick
                  Seahawk Rick commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Incredibly rare to see one person win the majority of the money as chops happen starting the first playoff week if there are single digit players left. In Adam's pools, there's ALWAYS one guy that wants to not do splits and sc
                  rews the majority of the people that do. I don't think I've ever seen somebody with two picks in the playoffs.


                  I'm fuzzy on this story as it maybe was the DEN/PITT 2012 WC playoff game in Adams pool, way before he did the auto-split at the end of the regular season. The pot might have been 45-50K at that time and there was probably a small chop after Week 17. Maybe 6-7-8 people left and everyone but one guy went on PITT who was a 7-point favorite at DEN. DEN WON in OT and he won ALL the remaining money that was around 38K! Balls of effing steel!

                  Not sure if he hedged! LOL!
                  Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 01-02-2021, 04:49 PM.

                • Seahawk Rick
                  Seahawk Rick commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Just think if TB and ATL tied! Not gonna happen, but it is a possibility.
                  Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 01-03-2021, 01:18 PM.

              • #14
                Need Iowa State and TAMU to win today, then I can finish 4th in Adam’s bowl pickem if Bama wins the title.

                Comment


                • Mrvolo
                  Mrvolo commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Did not enter,how many in it? I use TPKing LMM and they are red hot in bowls and sorry I did not enter.GL today.

                • mtheller
                  mtheller commented
                  Editing a comment
                  140 entered. $12k in entry fees

                • mtheller
                  mtheller commented
                  Editing a comment
                  None of my zags worked. Will finished tied for 4th with 10 or more people. Only get back a couple hundred.

              • #15
                In eliminator news, my pool breakdown is; Cle 3, wash 2, Nola 1, tenn 1, LAC 1, INDY 1. I am the Indy

                Comment

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