2020-21 NFL P.O.W. Playoffs (Post Plays Here or follow the contenders!)

[DaveTuley]

OK, here we go with the playoff thread for the P.O.W. contest for the 2020-21 season. We had 12 qualifiers who earned 10 points (1 point per win, half-point per push, plus a 2-point bonus in Week 17 for the first time) during the regular season, so congrats are in order just for making the playoffs. As we made clear in the Week 1 thread at the start of the season, these players now use their number of points as units in the playoffs. We keep this as a P.O.W. contest as you make just 1 play per weekend (with reasoning for your play, please, as that's where most of the followers get the most value from these threads). You can bet a maximum of 5 units (wagers graded at even-money for contest purposes).

As the regular-season champ, ICE TEA 2 wins $100 online gift certificate to NFLshop.com and a ViewFromVegas shirt. But the big prize of a 2-night stay at a Las Vegas hotel (sorry, you have to get yourself here), plus dinner for 2 with yours truly, plus a VFV shirt and a $100 online gift certificate to NFL.com goes to whoever has the most units after the Super Bowl (we'll determine a tiebreaker in addition to Super Bowl pick of those in contention when we get to that point -- usually a 2nd pick of the side/total that they didn't use for main pick).

Yes, there's always debate about this playoff format as some want to be able to go "all-in" if they so choose, but the main purpose of the P.O.W. threads (started long ago by eandhfred) have always been to give an objective best bet each weekend, and we want this contest to reflect that sensibility and not just have people making wild wagers just to win the contest. People have also said "But if the bets are capped, then if the regular-season leader goes 4-0 in the playoffs, they can't be caught"...to that I say: "WHAT'S WRONG WITH THAT?" If ICED TEA 2 risks 5 units each week and goes 4-0, he deserves to win. And we also no longer allow teasers or parlays as, again, this thread is supposed to be you giving your best single play of the week. So, here's the updated standings heading into the first round:

Name	Win	Loss	Tie	Total
ICE TEA 2	13	2	1	13.5
TARB	13	4	0	13
RACING CAT	12	5	0	13
ASTROID M	11	5	1	12.5
MRVOLO	11	5	1	12.5
FREEJACK	11	5	0	12
EAST COAST	11	6	0	12
TEXAN 73	11	5	1	12
WOODEE	12	5	0	12
BARNSTORM	11	6	0	11
TAKETHEREDEYE	10	7	0	11
JIMMYJAM4508	10	6	0	10

The other difference from the regular season is that you don't lock in your bets at the time you feel you're getting the best line. Instead, we use static lines for the side and total of each of the weekend's games that are posted on Wednesday (I just made the deadline using Vegas/Pacific Time ...but as a concession to make it fair for those who feel they're losing that advantage of being able to line-shop, I'll give the best numbers that have been widely available so far this week (so there's a chance both sides could win if a game lands in the middle, but, hey, that happens in real-life betting, too!!!

Here are the lines for wild-card weekend, in which we have 6 games with 3 each on Saturday and Sunday (as opposed to the usual 2 in previous years)...again, 1 pick, also specify the units you're risking (up to 5, whole numbers only) and a reason you like the play...GLA:

Colts +7
Bills -6.5
Over 51.5
Under 52.5

Rams +4.5
Seahawks -3.5
Over 42
Under 43

Buccaneers -7.5
Washington +9
Over 45
Under 45.5

Ravens -3
Titans +3.5
Over 54.5
Under 55

Bears +10
Saints -9.5
Over 47
Under 48

Browns +6
Steelers -4.5
Over 46.5
Under 47.5

[Seahawk Rick]

CONGRATS to all the playoff contenders!!!

Effing Seachickens had me ripping up my ticket (Worth 2-points to get me to 10), then they score to cover and I'm getting the Scotch tape out to put it back together, then a "it doesn't matter" TD puts the sword in my belly and I eat the ticket and wash it down with Fireball...Ugh. Fun times.

Thanks Dave and Cotton for the contest as always...I will now just sit back, crack beers, watch my Seachickens try to make me proud and see what POW contenders can go 4-for-4 with full 5-point bets to win the crown!

[RacingCat]

Looking at the standings above, I don't believe the week 17 selections for both Ice Tea and myself are included in the totals. My record should be 12-5.

[TARB]

12-5, 13 points seems to be correct for Racing Cat.

[Mrvolo]

I know last year the format was max of 5 units per weekend which means you really have to go 4-0 and it does reward the top point leader but it could get a little exciting if there is no limit to bet maximum.

[DaveTuley]

I know last year the format was max of 5 units per weekend which means you really have to go 4-0 and it does reward the top point leader but it could get a little exciting if there is no limit to bet maximum.

We had a big discussion last postseason and even took an informal poll in the thread and most voted to keep it the same...basically, this isn't a "confidence" pool, it's P.O.W. and your best bet is your best bet each week...besides, if someone had the best record all year and then goes 4-0 in the playoffs, they deserve the title (and, in my mind, they also don't deserve to lose the lead and the edge that goes with it just because someone with a worse record goes all-in in the first week or thereafter).

[Mrvolo]

You woke my memory up.I now remember the vote and your explanation last year and reading it again I agree.

[Seahawk Rick]

Yeah Volo, I almost got exiled to a tiny island off the China coast for my desire to bet the house each week! ;-)

[florabamaboy]

I agree with the format. It does reward the consistent season long player. I don't know exactly what TARB's record is the last 5 years, but it has got to be amazing, probably like 65% or higher. I never make a real wager without looking to see his plays first. Learned the hard way. Thanks for a great contest and I do have my View from Vegas bowling shirt pressed and ready to go for the playoffs even if this wasn't my year. Thanks Dave!

[FreeJack]

You missed me. I should be 11-5

[gcotton]

That is my mistake. I totally missed your play this week. I thought I had them all graded, but I must of missed it in my COVID state...you did get a 2 point win with NO on Sunday, so finished with 11 points. Congrats and good luck...and again, my apologies.

[FreeJack]

No worries Gcotton! I hope you are feeling better!!

[DaveTuley]

Full rules and wild-card lines are in original post at top of this thread...I hope I've made all the necessary corrections in the standings, so please let me know if I missed anything, GLA

[Mrvolo]

Washington +9 for 5 units
Like our leader I am a underdog bettor and just read home dogs are 15-6-1 since 1978 in this round.WTF has a good defense and they should score 17-20 points plus the 9 and TB will have their work cut out to cover.Also a lot of good Karma with this team and feel they want to quite stories they were handed playoff spot.GL to all still alive in this contest.

[RacingCat]

Not pretty but Washington was inside the number most of the way. I liked Washington too but backed off a bit due to some of the uncertainty surrounding Alex Smith. Didn't realize Taylor Heinicke would show as well as he did. Rarely a bad thing to back a big underdog team that is solid on both the offensive and defensive lines.

[Seahawk Rick]

Good job Volo. I like them and INDY. Now get a NO win for your Survivor pool pick!

[JIMMYJAM4508]

Ravens -3 5 Units

I appreciate all the work G Cotton & Dave put into this!!! This Tennessee Defense visually looks like one of the worst defenses Ive ever seen in the playoffs. They have let up more than 35 points in 3 of there last 5 games and the 2 other games were against detroit/Jacks dont count(LOL) If Lamar Jackson cant beat this Tennessee defense he may never win a playoff game. Ravens wont be caught by surprise this time around. John Harbaugh and co have righted the ship the last 5 weeks and although it was against suspect competition they still squarely beat everyone on their schedule. The Ravens have been road warroirs and I think JK Dobiins and Lamar have big days while their D contains Henry & Tannehill. Give me the Better D in any playoff game and a motivated Lamar to get that Playoff W. Take the Ravens to advance on...........

[TARB]

Bills -6.5 ..... 5 units

The Bills are 6-0 since their bye week. winning by 10, 10, 11, 29, 29 and 30 points or by an average of 19.83 points. Their last three games were won by an average of 29.33 points. They are on a hot streak and they just might go all the way to the Super Bowl. They are a very talented team, peaking at the right time.

[Taketheredeye]

LA Rams +4.5 ..... 5 Units

LAR getting some key personal returning.
Put a line through the Jets game and Seattle average 20 points in 5 of last 6.
Ram D will stymie Wilson at every turn.
No fans let LA offense run with out distraction.
Like LA straight up, points are a bonus.

Thanks for the contest guys.

GLA and Stay Safe

[Woodee12]

5 UNITS--

RAMS +4.5 OVER SEATTLE---

I feel like I am tempting the betting Gods taking this line where its listed as it has dropped in most places (pinnacle is back up to 3.5 as I type) but was trying to decide between the Rams and an under in another game and the line value put me over the top here. Unders are too scary this year so I defaulted to this play with the very live underdog that can win outright.

I was on Seattle to win the division in a future bet and squeaked it out with a win over he Rams late in the year when Goff looked terrible... I do not know why I am coming back to him after I swore never to do it after what I saw that day where he looked completely defeated. This is assuming he plays and it looks like he will as he is not saying much at this time trying to decoy in my opinion. Somewhat I like it better if he does not play! More than anything I am banking on the Rams defense and the lack of home field advantage that Seattle usually has in a game that is a pk'em in my eyes.

[Texan 73]

NFL P.O.W (5 Points)
LA RAMS-SEATTLE UNDER 43

These two have played under both previous games against each other. The Rams may be without Goff, but they still have a great defense. Seattle has Wilson, but their offense
has tailed off the last eight games while their defense has stepped it up. Should be a game decided by field position and turnovers. No 12th man to help Seattle which is worth a lot.
Not sure if I trust an Alliance QB to do as well as last week. They usually don't the second week. Seattle has some tape to watch. Good rock 'em sock 'em game to watch.

[IceTea 2]

5 Units

Buffalo Bills -6.5

I make this play my POW because of many factors.
Starting with Buffalo having a 13-3 SU record along with a nice 11-5 ATS record. ( 8-0 ATS in their last 8 )
Even though this will be Josh Allen's first postseason game, I believe he will be able to more than handle it with many NFL veterans around him.

Looking at both teams and comparing them in AFC Conference games, the Bills are 10-2 SU and ( 7-5 ATS ) and the Colts 7-5 SU and ( 4-8 ATS )

On the other side, we have an improved Colts team this season that went 11-5 SU, but only 8-8 ATS
They have won 4 out of the last 5 games, but have gone 2-3 ATS in those games and had some trouble with Houston twice, and didn't look that good against the 1-15 Jags last week.
They really had to fight hard in that game.

I also have a hard time backing Philip Rivers in any Big game. As when the chips are down, He's not the guy that I want throwing the Football.

This game could get ugly, and Fast.

Good Luck

p.s. Thank you again for the Contest and hope G. Cotton is feeling better

[DaveyShines]

This is Josh Allen's 2nd postseason game.

[IceTea 2]

Yes, I totally forgot about last season's loss. My bad

[Asteroid M]

5 Units

Ravens -3

I have loved this Ravens team all year long. They have let me down in big spots as a favorite against the Chiefs and Steelers - but I can’t pass up taking an elite team against a team with 2 glaring defects (kicking and defense). This feels weird to write, but just the gap in the kickers is worth 3 points. The Ravens need to get to the 35 yard line to score but the Titans need to gain an additional 15 yards and will still be holding their breath. Tack on the gap in defenses and all I need is for Lamar to not give the game away - though that is a bit if given his big game performance. If he performs well this should be a blow out.