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PLAYOFFS 2021 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

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  • #16
    Bump.

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    • #17
      Million Dollar pool update...

      From Dave the pool manager.

      "I'll work on the wrap up email this coming week... there was no skim after week 16. 1 of the 24 voted no. He had saved IND & NO.

      the 12 winners got 81,491 each"

      The NO/IND saver guy got himself and the other 11 a bigger payday by saying no.


      FINAL 12-players season long picks...

      Nobody really used a bottom-feeder team most of the season. DAL, DEN, DET got used and SF early...NYG/WASH late. The DEN/LAS game in Week 17 was ultra close and would make you feel like moldy bread if you were on the wrong side of that nail-biter and saw 81K go bye-bye.

      In the end, it shows you that there's always some options at the end of the season to take average teams in a good spot like WASH/NYG/NE.

      It's a brutal format and this pool in the 3-years I've been in is always down to low double-digits, and if not for many late game heroics by big favs, this pool might have even been over before Week 17 even with people only having to pick a single team.

      Playing the Circa pool Dave Tuley has mentioned is obviously easier with the same big pot, but the buy-in is steep at $1000. To Volo it's chump change... 😁


      Click image for larger version  Name:	million final.PNG Views:	0 Size:	852.2 KB ID:	19395
      Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 01-10-2021, 12:46 PM.

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      • #18
        If you add up all your entries you come to 500-600$ in these pools and maybe 1000$ in Circa is way to go.I am seriously thinking about it next year.

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        • #19
          Will end this week.We advance and now down to 10.Cleveland winning changes my original Map and Baltimore comes into play.Will post on new thread if there is one later in week.

          Comment


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            "Will end this week"... What do you mean by that Volo?

        • #20
          DIVISIONAL ROUND...

          ​​​​​​We'll just keep this thread for all the playoffs. I'll post some refuge here later...
          Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 01-11-2021, 10:59 AM.

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          • #21
            "Will end this week"...What do you mean by that Volo?

            Comment


            • Mrvolo
              Mrvolo commented
              Editing a comment
              I meant this thread but now we will continue here.Right now looking for KC over Clev than week 3 big decisions if KC wins.

          • #22
            Need some input.My partner who said I control ticket is starting to voice his opinion.Like all of us he lives in the past and loves TB this week and KC to win SB because of past wins on Tom Brady and won last year SB with KC.His map is TB/GB/KC.
            I think LAR have shot to beat GB this week,only asking about TB this week.If they win I think KC gets beat by B/B winner and that team wins SB.Need some input.

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            • Seahawk Rick
              Seahawk Rick commented
              Editing a comment
              Will ponder... Hard to think my opinion is worth much since I was knocked out early but my Liz Hurley Fantasy picks record give me a little street cred! Lol! 😁

          • #23
            Million Dollar Pool Update with a twist...

            This was part of what happened in the final two-weeks where some players made partnerships to guarantee a payday.



            Week 16: 223 were still alive and a few wanted to skim some $ off the top but there were too many still alive to achieve any consensus. HOU (123) lost to a suddenly competitive CIN squad and CLE (60) lost to the Jets.

            -Week 17: 24 entered week 17 hoping for a skim, but there was 1 holdout that voted no (he had saved NO & IND). To guarantee themselves at least something, 12 entries formed 3 partnerships (they picked both sides of 2 games) and survived (thankfully there was no tie!). 9 others won their 2 games, so there were 12 winning entries that took home almost 81,500 each.

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            • #24
              Any news out of you Volo on your pick/map?

              I have no idea if there is somebody else that reads this thread that is actually still in your pool and just doesn't let us know that they are so if you don't want to say anything about who you're picking, I fully understand. Text me your pick though when you guys decide. Thanks and good luck!

              Comment


              • #25
                Feel lucky putting it here and if anyone follows me GL.Had a long talk with Marty1 and for all the wrong reasons TB may be my pick.They play NO who beat them twice and line is only 3.We decided that if on Friday line is 3 we go TB and see what happens in other games.If TB wins we then move forward.Line moves up we look at probably KC.Will post Friday.

                Comment


                • Buckeyefan80
                  Buckeyefan80 commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Not to sway your decision either way. Tuley posted in vsin newsletter that the same team has won the 3rd rematch in a season 67% of the time. Just passing along info. Not sure if you already knew. GL

                • Mrvolo
                  Mrvolo commented
                  Editing a comment
                  I know,thanks,I was the one who wrote the write up.Only kidding.Also nobody mentions TB has extra days rest.I have been a contrarian bettor for years and if it stays 3 that is our play.Also I was taken in as a half partner and will see almost a 1000$ tough to buck my friend.

              • #26
                ADAM POOLS - DIVISION WEEKEND....

                The TB/NO game will knock some out for sure...IFFF TB wins, Volo and his partner should maybe get some chop action unless there is the ONE person that doesn't want to chop and holds it up for everyone.
                o
                ADAM 1 ADAM 2
                Click image for larger version  Name:	adam1div.PNG Views:	1 Size:	21.8 KB ID:	19509 Click image for larger version  Name:	adam2div.PNG Views:	1 Size:	19.7 KB ID:	19510

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                • #27
                  Down to 5 and we have Buffalo,KC and GB left.Nobody has more then 2.TB the contrarian pick maybe for all the $.Would love to be only winner rather then chop.

                  Comment


                  • mtheller
                    mtheller commented
                    Editing a comment
                    I think both games this weekend could go either way. From a statistical standpoint and following the rules of Adam, I think your play this week should be GB (which you already said was one of your Super Bowl teams). This was you are guaranteed to have a pick to use in the super bowl. Remember the rules, a person who has a losing pick in the Super Bowl is considered better than someone with no pick at all. The only way you can lose is if NFC wins Super Bowl and someone has that team left.

                  • Seahawk Rick
                    Seahawk Rick commented
                    Editing a comment
                    I can buy what mthellers selling... Rodgers isn't gonna throw all the picks Brees did. Then you have a team in the SB that could win. You want to have a chance to chop too.

                    Let us know if there's any chop talk this week. You should all take a grand at least...

                  • mtheller
                    mtheller commented
                    Editing a comment
                    The reason you don't want to try and pick the AFC winner this week, is because your eliminator would depend on both games going in your direction in order to win the following week. You need GB to win both weeks, even if you don't use them this week. If you go GB this week, then the only thing that matter is that game, as you are guaranteed to have one of the AFC teams left to pick next week. If you go with picking the AFC game this week, then you also need GB to win, otherwise, you are hoping for any other winners this week to not have a team to pick for the Superbowl like you would have.

                • #28
                  Read rules a few times and you are right we take GB and if they win we have SB pick which keeps us as the winner unless somebody can get to SB with GB left and they win.
                  As far as chopping we would agree up to 3000$ each and play for rest.Will keep you posted.

                  Comment


                  • mtheller
                    mtheller commented
                    Editing a comment
                    Thanks Rick for sending the screen shot. Volo - Looking at the entries, you have got to look for a good chop. Assuming StokeCity is the same person on both entries (i.e. one is not an entry for a friend), he actually has the upperhand. He can essentially pick KC on one and Buf on the other and end up with an entry that has GB to use in the superbowl or an entry that has no one left.
                    Last edited by mtheller; 01-18-2021, 02:01 PM.

                  • mtheller
                    mtheller commented
                    Editing a comment
                    If it was my entry, I would ensure some chop this week as priority 1. Then I would take GB and hope that his entry that has GB left uses a different team and they lose.

                    The more I look at his entry, I think he goes GB with the one entry and TB with the other, that would put him in the same situation and have an AFC team to use in the Superbowl.

                  • mtheller
                    mtheller commented
                    Editing a comment
                    Essentially your only hope to cash more, outside of a chop is GB winning this week, so you might as well be on them.

                • #29
                  Stoke can have a team in SB but if Volo has the opposite team and wins, he gets an even bigger share depending on what the others do. Pretty big gamble though to not take money now and hope that scenario plays out as you don't know how stoked is going to play it if he thinks the winner of the AFC game will win the Super bowl or if the NFC game will win the Super Bowl and takes the opposite side. It as much as you can Volo in a chop and maybe still have a shot for some Super Bowl money...

                  I know, you can never tell a New Yorker what to do!

                  Comment


                  • mtheller
                    mtheller commented
                    Editing a comment
                    If I were a betting guy..........Stoke1 goes GB and Stoke4 goes TB.....one entry is eliminated and the other has the AFC team left to pick in the SB.

                    Readcom has the opposite sitituation that Volo has, so he goes KC this week (unless Mahomie is ruled out), but then would not be guaranteed a SB team.

                    SleepyJo goes to Church everyday this week and says a prayer and hope a sign from God tells him which team to pick.

                  • mtheller
                    mtheller commented
                    Editing a comment
                    In any situation and being that both games are going to be 3 point spreads this week, I would agree to any chop at this point, as it is a hard bet to hedge with small lines.

                • #30
                  We rejected a full split and will take 3000 and play for 10K.If Stroke 1 takes GB and they win and KC wins he is left without a team.We then beat him because we have AFC.I also have a man to man bet 250 to win 500 GB making SB.

                  Comment


                  • mtheller
                    mtheller commented
                    Editing a comment
                    Yep, my mistake. I was looking at it wrong. If he alternates his NFC picks, then he needs the Super Bowl to either be GB and Buf or TB and KC
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