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PLAYOFFS 2021 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

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  • PLAYOFFS 2021 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

    WINNER - WINNER, CHICKEN DINNER...

    CONGRATULATIONS to all that cashed in on a Survivor Pool this year with VOLO, MTHELLER and RICKYVAUGHN44 all cashing that I know of...Any others???

    Volo still has work to do on his shared pick with his partner. I brought over a post of his from the Week 17 thread that we can weigh in on.

    What do you do if you are still in a pool that plays out through the playoffs? Depending on how many or how few you have, it might take different strategy to get a bigger chunk of Survivor candy.

    ADAM's pools have one with 44 in Adam 1 and Adan 2 with 13 including Volo. Still too many to do a chop in either. ADAM 1 will have many sharing the final cash available unless there's an upset. Adam 2 has a good chance of chops starting next week if a few get knocked out this week. Nobody wants to get this far and not get some more dough out of it, but it seems every year there's ONE guy that just wants to play it out, and usually they end up getting a good chunk of cash and karma sits on the sideline and watches it happen.

    So, as Mtheller said in the Week 17 thread, you want to try to figure out who you think is going to win the Super Bowl and work backwards. Easy on paper, not so easy in reality as like mapping, one injury to a QB or a couple of main play-makers can take a strong team and turn them into a map-breaker in a heartbeat. You can't plan for it, but it's always a possibility. The goal in my mind is to get a team to the Conference Championships and hope they win. Most likely in a smaller pool like Adam 2, you'll be one of only a few left and will most likely have done a chop or two. Adam's pool rules are if you get a team to the SB and they lose, that's better than someone that wins a Conference Championship but doesn't have a team left for the SB. I can't remember if one person has had a team win the SB and got a big chunk of money as chops will take that amount down a great deal before the SB.

    Having the balls to pick an upset, especially in a smaller group like Volo is in is the way to possibly grab all the money left on the table, BUT, one of the hardest things to do. I gave the one story in the Week 17 thread of the 'Zag' of the century, but those stories are like seeing Sasquatch!

    I guess this thread is all for VOLO unless someone else chimes in that they are still in a pool.


    Soooooooooo...Let's gander at the opening weekend madness!


    CHI @ NO...No wild thunder-dome crowd this year for NO but they are battle-hardened in what might be Brees' last hurrah. CHI with a decent D, but not enough to take on the brain-trust that comes up with magic on offense it seems on a regular basis for the Aint's.

    INDY @ BUFF...I think BUFF can win the SB, nuff said.

    TB @ WASH...It will be cold in DC, that will fight the hot-air that flows in that area coming out a house painted white. WASH D is pretty damn good and might be able to slow Tommy Boy down some but the TB D is also good, and should slow up WFT offense more than TB's gets slowed down.

    LAR @ SEA...Goff...Can he throw with a hand he had surgery on two-weeks ago? LAR has a good D and it's gonna be a dogfight one way or another because SEA doesn't throttle teams but loves 4th quarter drama. I think they win as I don't trust Goff with a healthy throwing hand. The ballsy gamble is to go with SEA, which would leave you with one extra 'good' team left to use.

    CLEV @ PITT...I have no idea. Neither in my mind are SB teams, but somebody has to win. CLEVE almost choked it away Sunday, but now PITT has some guys back that will make a difference and be able to beat the Brownies. As much as I hate to see Ben the rapist win, I think they'll be in the divisional round.

    BALT @ TENN...BALT screwed me twice in pools so have a bitter taste in my mouth...Or might be the Fireball I had over the holidays! This will be a good game. TENN D is the question mark. BALT has got the engine running finally and there will be two-road teams win IMHO, so is BALT one of them?

    The dance begins...

  • #2
    Volo post from Week 17 thread...

    "Spent some time on this and in NFC I am saving GB for SB.Will be alive with Buffalo and KC in AFC and feel if I take Buffalo and they win I have a shot to split with a few or win the whole thing.My play this week is Tampa Bay then I pick KC in week 2 and Buffalo in week 3.To get there they must beat Colts then Pitt at home.I think Buffalo and KC are in AFC finals.If Buffalo beats KC I truly think we stand alone.
    I have a friend and he is a friend but he loves to bust my balls.He took some of my $ when Tiz The Law lost to Bafferts horse so last night after I cashed on Pool he said no way GB makes SB to deflate my ideas.One word led to another and he said the magic words “want to bet”
    He gave me 2-1 and my bet for me a big #.500 to win a 1000.As they use to say,I am playing with their money."

    Comment


    • Mrvolo
      Mrvolo commented
      Editing a comment
      I have GB in my plan in SB as I do not use them and have them playing Buffalo who I picked to beat KC in AFC.My partner likes GB to win SB but wants to have KC going.We are talking it out as I talked him off of Jet/Cleveland upset.NO in mix for first game also.

    • Mrvolo
      Mrvolo commented
      Editing a comment
      Now I see your point.The trick is to pick conference winner and hope nobody else has team in SB.My plan is Buffalo pick in AFC then use GB to win it all or same scenario but use KC instead of Buffalo.

    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      Yeah, it's tricky but like I said, 13-people won't make it that far and most of the money is usually chopped up by then. Every year is different though but most of the time a couple people are left to play for a small amount after the bigger chops.

      There will be an upset or two that will pare it down.

  • #3
    I like the way you're thinking Rick. GO BILLS!!!! 30 years since their first appearance in the big game---it was also in Tampa----could this be the year? I would die a happy man.

    Comment


    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      Every bills fan that lived through the '90s and four straight Super bowls without a win deserves a medal of freedom unlike the jackasses that the dumbass in the WH gives them to these days! I know for a fact the bills can give Kansas City a game at Kansas City based off what I've seen this year against my Seahawks and four other games I've seen them play. They are the real deal and it will be a matter of them handling the pressure that comes with a deep run into the playoffs... I hope they're up for the task! Never mind what mtheller says below, the Bills are on the rise!!

    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      Good win Davey...INDY shot themselves in the foot in the first half going for the TD on 4th and goal and the dumbass that went offsides when BUFF was just trying to hard-count INDY offsides and never was gonna snap it leading to a TD instead of a FG. They played well and will have a shot...I hope it's them and KC in the AFC Championship...That's MUST SEE TV!

  • #4
    Boy I Love Losing Superbowls

    Comment


    • #5
      Took NO this week as I feel they have a better chance of winning than WFT who I will bet plus the points.Have no interest in NO after this week as GB is our pick to go to SB.Look for Buffalo to advance and if alive in week 2 will make decision as GB opponent in SB and play it from there.GL and thanks to our friend Rick for keeping this going even if I am only reader.

      Comment


      • mtheller
        mtheller commented
        Editing a comment
        Pittsburgh might be worth a double look as Cleveland coaches and players test positive

      • mtheller
        mtheller commented
        Editing a comment
        Also, keep in mind that NO would have one more game before a GB matchup.

      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Agree with both mthellers comments. Volo's partner likes big favorites though so tough to get him onto PITT, or my SEA option.

    • #6
      Well Rick knows at least 2 readers.Thanks Mr. M. You are probably right with Pitt.but our map has NO in tough game against Seattle/LAR winner and we have to take a stand early so we are going this road.We see Buffalo vs KC our key game in week 3 and winner playing GB in SB.

      Comment


      • mtheller
        mtheller commented
        Editing a comment
        So I assume the map is NO -> KC -> BUFFALO -> GB?

    • #7
      That is my map but my partner who took me on because I played football in the 1940’s at a HS in the Bronx thinks I know something likes a flip flop on KC/Buffalo.Very tricky position I am in even though I talked him off of Jet win over Cleveland.If I am wrong and he is right he is kind of I told you so,so I have to make him want Buffalo in SB.
      To make matters worse,last night he is worried how we collecte 25,000$ without paying tax.I told him we have to win first and then live another year or our wives have the problem.He said goodbye.

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        We'll... Tell him not to worry about collecting 25k unless you guys pick an upset this weekend and everyone else picks a loser. The money is tax free!

      • Mrvolo
        Mrvolo commented
        Editing a comment
        I know

    • #8
      ...........................

      Comment


      • #9
        MILLION DOLLAR POOL FINAL...

        9,790 started and only 12 finished with 50% going out in Week 17...This is the toughest Survivor contest that I know of. I'll try to find out what chops might have happened up until Week 17. $81,500 per person is what it would be if there weren't any previous chops. Volo can find that coin in his couch cushions, but a fine pay day if that indeed holds up. I have a feeling there was probably at least one chop last week with 24 still in the mix, but I'll check with Dave the pool manager. I'm sure his tips are good.

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        Comment


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          Good question... I think Adam would work with you on that, especially if you threw a little cheese his way. My check way back when was lump sum. He has the money in different places but I would think cutting several checks wouldn't be a problem. Hopefully you'll have to face this issue next year!!!!

        • mtheller
          mtheller commented
          Editing a comment
          Hratch uses simplysportsware and it runs $175

        • mtheller
          mtheller commented
          Editing a comment
          I don't know if anyone ever complained about what he takes out, but he lays it all out there. This was in the week 4 update this year:

          "Here are the finances for this year so everyone knows what they're playing for.
          Original Entries: 217
          Week 1 Buy-Backs: 63
          Week 2 Buy-Backs: 0
          Website Fee: $175
          Donation to MS Society: $350
          Donation to Camp Haiastan: $1,500

          That leaves $25,975 and we always round UP at the Eliminator, so the total amount that's up for grabs for everyone is $26,000. That's $2K more than last year."

      • #10
        I've thought for a few years about starting a pool on a site like the million dollar one. Not do the double picks though and hope winners throw a morsel my way in the end.

        If I did, what kind of pool rules would you want...Just like Adam's? Or divide it all up Week 17? I wouldn't want to get too cute with the format.

        Comment


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          The bigger the pool, the more people left at the end obviously but usually Adam 1 is down to lower numbers but the fact that many huge upsets were foiled at the end of games kept that pool with way more than usual.

          I agree the playoffs could be its own entity.

          How many in Hratch's now?

          Yes, Dave wrote me once about how he doesn't want to deal with paying out a lot of people and he guarantees that with his format.

        • mtheller
          mtheller commented
          Editing a comment
          Hratch’s was the one I cashed in. We finished week 17 with 9 and it just splits at that point. Nothing further.

          It started with 217, and 63 people bought back in after week 1 loses.

        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          The 217 was what I was after.

          I think just a regular format like Adam's is a good model with no extra 10% tacked on. I'll have to see how much it costs to run a pool the site the million dollar one is on.

      • #11
        Ifffff I was in a Survivor playoff pool, I'd take PITT this week as CLEV and the Covid issues have got to be taking its toll on preparation and game day coaching decisions will be affected too. I'm not a Pittsburgh or Ben the rapist fan but business is business.

        I think INDY has a medium shot to beat BUFF and it gives you a chance to have an extra good team to work with as a QB injury to any team can throw the whole map into a tizzy!
        Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 01-08-2021, 08:29 AM.

        Comment


        • #12
          A few comments.I agree about no tipping in Adams but if I won a big # I would see how accommodating he is in paying out.If my # is more than 10;000 which Bank must report to IRS I would take 9900$ and I have 2 daughters with different last names and divert monies to them.
          About running a pool you have to crazy.People stiff you,where do you put $ to start,you are cashing checks like the Russian Mafia to name a few.For your efforts,let’s say you get 30,000$ and you make 1000 or so and a free entree,is it worth it?
          Will be interesting to see picks tonight.

          Comment


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            He could probably send a few smaller checks.

            If someone didn't pay an entry fee, they get kicked out of the pool Week 1.

            It would be a lot of work in the beginning. I can figure out the deposit stuff. Can deposit checks from my phone plus online payments.

            I have you down for 5-entries!

          • Mrvolo
            Mrvolo commented
            Editing a comment
            I sent you the check last week.

        • #13
          Also a bank must report multiple checks,the IRS is way ahead of us.

          Comment


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            There must be a way or there wouldn't be any big pools. Other places to put money besides banks. Your NY mafia friends can give me some advice! 😁

          • DaveyShines
            DaveyShines commented
            Editing a comment
            How about using etransfer?

          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            Haven't heard if it Davey but will look if I get serious about getting something going. Thanks.

        • #14
          Originally posted by Mrvolo View Post
          Also a bank must report multiple checks,the IRS is way ahead of us.
          Most banks now are at 3,000 in which they report. Probably why a lot of people booking/betting have now turned to venmo, bitcoin and so forth.

          Comment


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            Can just put it in a Schawb account maybe...

        • #15
          ADAM POOL PLAYOFF WEEK 1 SUMMARY...

          Spread around a good deal with BALT/TENN game not being touched BUT SEA gets 2 picks between the pools! 😎 A few BUFF doubters in ADAM 2 thinking KC will be their AFC team of destiny (Great stripper name I might add!). PITT pickers are hoping to use a team that you probably won't be able to pick the rest of the playoffs as they are not the force they usually are entering the playoffs but with all the CLEV problems, if they don't win, it will be one of the bigger upsets.

          I think INDY has a shot to take down BUFF and if SEA loses, I won't be totally surprised...All about Goff and a defensive battle.

          Volo and his partner are riding the Brees train vs Da Bears.

          Gentelmen...Start your tailgates!
          O
          ADAM 1 ADAM 2
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          Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 01-08-2021, 09:44 PM.

          Comment


          • DaveyShines
            DaveyShines commented
            Editing a comment
            Not surprising that nobody wanted to touch the Balt/Tenn game, which along with the LAR/Sea game (to a lesser degree) is a tossup.

          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            My Seachickens will probably be the only team to lose. Not enough to create a chop in Adam 2 IMHO.
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