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Some Tampa Bay Downs Toughts

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  • In race 9 I am torn between #2 and #7. Both Ali and Ward are having good meets. Ali was hot early on, Ward is always steady. Ward’s live ones usually get bet more than this one, so I’ll go with Ali.

    $20 win #2 Passions Image
    $2 exbx 2-7
    .50c tri 2,7/ALL/2,7

    Hope Ali rediscovers his touch....

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    • Yuck. Challenging track....

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      • Had the # 6 and tossed him out of the pk 4,,,,,,Singled on the #3 ,Gallardo disappoints as chalk,again.good luck Friday,ALL

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        • JMO but if you bet on a horse to be ridden by Either of the GeeGees( get it) Gamacho or Gallardo, you are paying a huge discount. At least 20% on longer priced horses, but 49% on logical favourites. I.e 3/5 instead of evens.
          "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
          “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

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          • Yep. Hate when they’re riding one of my horses. One note: Gallardo has run second at HUGE odds at least three times so far for trainer Axmaker.

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            • Mar19 2021


              R1 trainers of #1-5 are 5/139, = 3% trainers of 6+7 are 13/122= 10%.

              Having said that only 1,3&7 have not lost yet at MC10k. The #1 intrigues as its first race was decent then hit the sly then turf and it has the best breeding bris rating at the dis. Post 1 was 0/35 but won wtw on Wed. Need 4-1 to bet. #3 has best SR Jan8 and is back in 5 days, usually a good sign. Again need 4-1. Don’t like the 7 very much: a plodder.

              In this class dis Fav shows 91%. Probably the 6 is Fav.




              R2&3. 7F track profile favours outside speed horses despite it being 7F.

              R2 #7 doesn’t seem up to that task and I also don’t like 1&3.

              All the others2456 offer something and it depends which something happens [email protected] I’d bet the 6.

              R3#4 looks logical, but it’s a dead closer without much early speed and it has 2nditis.. 2 looks 2nd best but also a closer. Gonna pass. Part of a show parlay if I start one in R1




              R4&5 1&1/16 Turf

              R4 KOC HAS UCE 1&3 and #2 has best turf races. Probably a 123 box and the #2 in Dd &pics if near 5-1.

              R5 Again the inside horses offer the best chances so 24 box or 124 box if #1 draws any money. if not put the 8 under 2&4

              That’s it for today

              Gl

              Barryt

              "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
              “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

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              • Good luck, Barry. I like a handful today but they’re all in the 4-1/10-1 range. Will post something if it looks like we’re getting a decent price.

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                • Race 3
                  Trainer Ubide is a guy I noticed about four years ago when I first started researching Tampa. He had good ROI with very few starters, a type of guy I like to follow. Of course, he went O fer the next few years. But two weeks ago he scored a first time starter at 15-1. Maybe he’s back to his high ROI ways? This horse ran good here off a 9 month layoff and has a couple wins over the course. If he improves off that layoff effort, he could be right there at a nice price.

                  $20 win #5 Mi Tia Christina 8-1
                  $2 DD 5/8
                  $1 P3 5/8/ALL

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                  • Meh. Well beaten third.

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                    • Schistl at 6-1? I’m in.

                      $20 win #8 Pharoah Fancy Pants

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                      • Schistl wins at 7/2. What a debut meet for this guy.

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                        • Race 5
                          Hoping Ali can get back to winning like earlier in meet. Horse had a good debut, running fourth on the turf. Next out, he got clobbered out of the gate. Gonna toss that one and hope the debut was a better indication of its talent. Sitting at 23-1 with 5 mtp

                          $20 win #9 Table One 6-1
                          $2 exbx 1-9
                          .50c tri 1,9/ALL/1,9

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                          • Looked good turning for home but ran out of gas. Finished fourth.

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                            • Good call in the fifth, Barry. You were all over that one.

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                              • Schistl with two long ones in today. I’ll stick with him.

                                Race 6
                                #4 Razzledazzlem 10-1

                                Race 8
                                #8 Soaking Wet 15-1

                                Will bet to win and fool around with some exotics. Good luck today, folks!

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