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WEEK 7 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

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  • WEEK 7 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

    THE BIG DOGS WON…EXCEPT FOR A BEAR…(Guess who had them as a pick?!)

    MINN was a big favorite, and for a little while in the first half, MINN pickers might have had just a little bit of stomach acid starting to rise up their throat, but the MINNY boys got it going and made survivalist rest easy. GB almost screwed the pooch, that would have taken out a big chunk of players, but Mr. Rodgers waved his magic knee brace,f and found a way. Most of the other top picks did get you a W, except for Da Effing Bears, that took one of my four-picks in the mini-pool I’m in out. WHY do coaches always want to play for FG’s and take three plays to set up the spot further away than comfortable after moving the ball down the field at a good clip. My UW Huskies did the same effing thing vs. Oregon where they let 30+seconds run off the clock with two timeouts left and took their foot off the pedal, and you guessed it, the freshman kicker missed from 37-yards when they had time to move the ball at least 10-yards closer! Ahhhhhhhhhh! What GB did at the end of the game is how you should try to win a game by helping get the ball closer for your kicker!

    PHILLY looked good, and so did Wentz as he’s getting back into the grove…NYG was deflated off the CAR win, that turned into a loss on the bomber FG last week…NYG might be giving it up. ---- ATL has all the offense and not much defense, but had enough to keep King Crab legs and the rest of the Bucs out of the win column. ---- PITT and CINN had a good, tough division game that a ‘pick’ helped win for Ben the rapist and the gang…You can do the ‘rub’ a yard off the line of scrimmage, but that yard was almost 9-feet! ---- LAC showed CLEVE that they have a ways to go in their rebuild…LAC has only lost to the two undefeated teams at that moment in time, and will be gunning for KC in the division. ---- Peterman…Effing Peterman…BUFF had a shot to win the damn thing and knock a decent number of people out, BUT noooooooo, our boy Peterman throws a completion to the wrong team and lose it…Need to have Watson healthy before getting on the HOU wagon…Schierby was on HOU I think and saw a survivor life pass before his eyes I’m sure! ---- JETS win two in-a-row! Yeah, they played a banged up INDY team, but a win is a win, and it helped me win a ML bet in the ‘Survivor with a twist’ rollover thing a few of us are doing. ---- SEA got me the other win as they hand Chucky and Beastmode a butt-whooping across the pond in London. Raiders bitched the whole week about going with Gruden being the head bitcher…SEA run game has been great 4-weeks in-a-row, and have themselves in the WC hunt in an average NFC as of now. ---- WASH wins in the antenna game I pointed out coming off the NO embarrassment on MNF…CAR made a run, but Cammy couldn’t be Superman for the kitties…They are still a good team, but WASH is good enough to give some good teams fits. ---- LAR is undefeated, but why do I think a good portion of the hype is fading a little bit. Altitude and cold made a difference, and let DEN back into the game late…LAR’s stellar on paper defense has let a good amount of points in many games, and I think they’ll get beat a few times this season. ---- DAL let it loose on JAX and their supposed great D…I’ve been saying IFFF Dak can get the passing game going, Elliott will balance it out nicely to give them a shot to win the East or at least a WC…Two shit-burgers for JAX in two weeks…I’ll give them a break at KC, but they didn’t get off the bus in DAL. ----BAL has a verrrrry good D, and Mariota is not 100%...TENN is average at best right now, and BAL will be down to the wire for the division crown. ---- The KC/NE pinball machine got cranked up and proved to be a great game to watch. A few first half misses by KC, and a ‘Catch-and-release’ move by the KC D lineman letting Brady run in for a TD late was the difference in the end…We’ll see them again I hope in January!

    I don’t think anyone BESIDES ME lost a pick as most were on MINN, and some of the other bigger favorites. You might have had up to 10% of your pool go out depending on the pick makeup, but Adam’s pools didn’t lose too many.

    OK…Lets find a way to get through Week 7!!!

    Here’s some garbage to chew on…


    LAR @ SF…For me, this is a ‘Dangerous but maybe’ game as this is a division game with SF finding ways to play good teams tough. Maybe the LAR D will show up in full force and shut them down, but it might be more of a game than you think, as LAR has the undefeated target on their back, and will get everyone’s best effort. Not sure how the heartbreaker in GB will affect them.

    TENN @ LAC (LONDON)…Not sure if Mariota will generate enough offense to beat LAC. TENN is having a tough time doing much lately, and a trip to London is a tough way to get out of their rut. This WILL be one of my picks. LAC is cranking it up vs. the average at best teams, and should keep marching on.

    BUFF @ INDY…IF Peterman is starting, I give INDY a good shot at winning at home…Not that I want to be on the game, but it might a shot to use a team that many might be afraid to go on. Ballsy pick, but not a totally horrible one. INDY has a fair amount of injuries, so look elsewhere, as if you have a single pick, gonna be tough to go with these guys, but let your gut be your guide. Probably more of a ‘Dangerous but maybe’ game.

    CINN @ KC…CINN D is not playing well, and will be without three defensive starters that went out in the PITT game. Tough going in those games where both teams get beat up. KC is still the HOT offense, and will carve up these cats. I WILL use KC as a pick. Big whoop! LOL.

    NYG @ ATL…NYG hasn’t scored at least 20-points in 4-games, and ATL is beat up, but still finding a way to get points on the board. I’m not sure if NYG has quit yet or not, but with Eli at QB, there isn’t a lot to be confident in as Manny only has six TD passes in six-games. I have this one on my radar.


    HOU @ JAX…IFFF Watson has to stay in the pocket again because he is still nursing the sore ribs/chest, JAX might be able to get their D going again in this division match up. JAX knows their backs are against the wall, and better right the ship before it takes on more water.

    MINN @ NYJ…JETS, JETS, JETS on the big roll! Hey, two games for these guys is a big roll…MINN goes outside to face a team with some confidence that thinks they can beat the one of the bigger guns on paper in the NFC. MINN did what they should have done vs. ARI, and now goes on the road to see if they can show the NFC they are to be a tough out the rest of the season. NYJ will give them their best shot…It’s a roadie, so probably many other places to look, and many have used MINNY already in Week 1 pools.


    NE @ CHI…NE looking great, and CHI D looked lost at MIA last week…IF I knew the CHI D would get back to looking tough, I’ll give them a shot to keep it close. NE hasn’t played there for a while so the place will be jacked-up to take down Tommy Boy…Check weather.

    DEN @ ARI…DEN showed some grit by not letting LAR run away from them in DEN. It’s a roadie though, and you should look elsewhere for salvation.

    CLEVE @ TB…A game effort in Winston’s first game back from being a dumbass, and he should be sharper with another week of practice. Maybe a ‘Dangerous but maybe’ game. An under the radar game for sure, but it’s a test of your gambling spirit to take them.

    DET @ MIA…Tanahill? Osweiler? Too many questions, and DET has a little something going on, and will coming off the bye. Just hope it isn’t a game your cable provide makes you watch!

    CAR @ PHILLY…PHILLY looking better, CAR is good enough to give them a game.

    NO @ BALT…NO has the offense, BALT has the defense, and the game is in BALT…That’s enough to keep me away from this one.

    DAL @ WASH…Division game with two fairly evenly matched teams. No thanks!

    Playing defense with your picks isn’t a bad idea as pools are down to 10% or less, and a big favorite can chop 30% plus out of your pool so don’t be reckless, but staying off the big favorite is probably a good idea if you are down to one pick in your pool.

    Throw your ideas out there, plus check injury and weather reports to see if you can come up with a golden egg this week!

    Good luck!
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 10-15-2018, 09:26 PM.

  • #2
    Survivor Grid for Week 7 - Tuesday. Teams with at least 1% in one of the pools represented.

    INDY getting a lot of love vs BUFF and Peterman who should get the start. He did lead a TD drive vs. HOU, BUT, he threw the dagger ball that shut the door on their upset bid. Can the guy get better??

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    • #3
      Week 7 weather forecast as of Tuesday.

      The MIA warm weather could play a role with the Motor City Kitties maybe being affected by it in the 2nd half...

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      • #4
        Game to stay away from is Atlanta.Line opened 6 and is now 5 1/2.This looks too easy.For my one play will take Indy.


        • #5
          Survivor Pool Rollover: hit (barely) with NE to bring total to $398. Started with $100 in Week 4 and have rolled with KC -190, PITT -155 and NE -180. Trying to take home teams at less than -200 on ML. Going back to well and betting NE again this week at Chicago @ -165 which will return $639. GL all.


          • #6
            GL but why change and go on road team?This game looks like a trap.


            • #7
              Mrvolo: my preference is to take home teams but I took KC @ DEN on MNF. The other options I had were TBAY and BALT (for home teams less than -200) and I consider them both to be vulnerable. I just feel that Mack injury is the tipping point. I don't see a trap. NE should take care of business in the Windy City.


              • Mrvolo
                Mrvolo commented
                Editing a comment
                I see your reasoning,have no interest in game GL.

            • #8

              I also barely survived my rollover and it’s ironic that I switched from NE to GRBY . Phew!phew!
              the only team I like this week is the Rams . SF is kinda travel weary while Rams have only left Cal to go next door to SEA and Denv.
              But im probably going to break the rules and take a Total .My POW Atl Giants [email protected] 1.847.
              Since GIANTS play MNF I can do both.
              so LAR $268 to $327 then $327 on the O 54 yielding $605. Probably won’t have the courage to watch the GIANTS game so I’ll go for a late dinner and a long walk.
              only concern is ATL has to get a FG kicker or that bet I’ll be off.
              "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
              “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos


              • Seahawk Rick
                Seahawk Rick commented
                Editing a comment
                There are no rules in Rollover Survivor!!!

            • #9
              I am leaning TB and KC right not...KC is over -200, but I don't want to force anything, and I'd rather not be on a road, or division game if possible.

              I will knock it around, but don't want to make my bet too early and have some crazy injury in practice eff it up!

              Will make decision by Friday and let her fly!


              • #10
                Ugh I hate this week. Probably going Atlanta at home. Not sure I have the testicular strength to pick 1-5 Indy even with Anderson starting at QB for Buffalo..... did I mention I hate this week?


                • Seahawk Rick
                  Seahawk Rick commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Yeah, not the menu we would like with teams on the bye reducing our options.

                  I like ATL and think they have enough offense to win. I might use them as one of my three picks in my lunch money pool.

                  INDY is possible but Anderson is an upgrade but what kind of timing with Wr's will he have.

              • #11
                And why weren't we all on DEN?!

                I actually got off at my exit driving home from work, and went into the McDonalds parking lot, and was gonna put them in, BUT, I was two minutes late! D'oh!!! I just was thinking how they've only lost to good teams by small amounts...ARI is just not good.


                • Deano
                  Deano commented
                  Editing a comment
                  We need to start looking at fading the Cardinals every week. They are a terribly coached team right now. They made a bad Broncos team look like a playoff contender.

              • #12
                ADAM POOL SUMMARIES....

                Who would have ever thought there would be 30% of the picks on INDY!!!!! I have liked INDY all year in that they have been in most of their games late into the 4th quarter, BUT, I don't know if I'd put my survivor life in their hands....Anderson at QB is obviously a question mark, but Peterman actually ran a TD drive on HOU, whos defense is way better than INDY's. Be my guest...

                LETS GO BUFF!!!!!!!
                ADAM 1 ADAM 2
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                • #13
                  Week 4 of my Survivor with a twist...

                  Last week SEA and NYJ came through with my take two teams and bet them on the ML individually, and rollover the winnings, and see how far it can go. Survivoresque, but can take the same team twice!

                  $100 Starting wager on each. Gonna try to take -200 or better teams when possible...BUT will go higher than -200 if I don't feel good about the -200 or lower teams.

                  WEEK 1
                  #1 NE -275 --- to win 36.36
                  #2 DAL -140 --- to win 71.40

                  WEEK 2
                  #1 CAR -290 --- $136 to win $46.90
                  #2 NO -280 --- $171 to win $61.07

                  WEEK 3
                  #1 SEA -145 --- $183 to win $126
                  #2 NYJ -140 --- $232 to win $165

                  WEEK 4
                  #1 TB -195 --- $309 to win $158
                  #2 KC -250 --- $397 to win $159


                  • #14
                    I switch to KC for my one pick.My friend had Denver in Adam 2 for all your reasons Seahawk.GL on your rollovers.


                    • Seahawk Rick
                      Seahawk Rick commented
                      Editing a comment
                      I am a big fan of KC Volo...Coming off a big NE game, but these guys know they gotta keep winning to take the division as the Chargers are gonna be around in December. I didn't think of DEN all that much this week, until it was too late!! They aren't going to the playoffs, but they are way better than some teams like ARI.
                      GO CHIEFS!

                  • #15
                    I was all in on Indy in my pools this week (Adam1 and 2, SZN 1 and 2, and FanDuel free $250k pot). I hedged myself at the 11th hour and went with the rams in Adam 1. Never like taking a road team or division game but I made an exception. I did however want to preserve the Rams for later but we will see. GL


                    • Seahawk Rick
                      Seahawk Rick commented
                      Editing a comment
                      Maybe it's INDY's time to get back into the win column...I have no idea what Anderson can bring to the table, if anything for BUFF.

                    • Seahawk Rick
                      Seahawk Rick commented
                      Editing a comment
                      INDY won for fun Schierby! BUFF has gone from bad to worse...