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The Limper Line – NBA 2021 – Week 2/15 – 2/21

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  • The Limper Line – NBA 2021 – Week 2/15 – 2/21

    The Covid 19 factor has really messed with my model, both in terms of the minimization of “home team advantage”, and the hyper frustrating schedule changes. The former required a lot of tinkering with the algorithm, but the latter makes for an almost daily clusterfuk I can barely keep up with. This will mean that, as much as I try to post projections as early in the day of each game , last minute game postponements will often end up delaying my daily post. I’ll try to make these daily posts as quickly as I can, but I’m a one man band and old as dirt, so you’ll get what you get, when you get it.

    Normally, my NBA model requires at least 2 months of data, after which I post around 2 months of fairly reliable projections, but given the weird scheduling this season, I’ve brought things forward a few weeks. I usually continue to post until the metrics used to determine reliability drop into the red, but it is my expectation that the model will begin in the red and edge into the green, before its ultimate collapse – but anything can happen.

    A reminder worth reminding again: The Limper doesn’t make “predictions”, it takes past performance data and matchup variables to project game winners and margins of victory (MOV); and should only be used as a guide for the bettor to make his own “predictions”. Also, although I post likely ATS picks, based on the projected MOV and “current” Vegas line, as the line changes, so might the pick, and it is the Vegas Insider consensus closing line the model uses to determine its “final ATS pick”, for grading purposes. Finally, I’ll post the standings record below only once at the beginning of each week for reference.

    GLTA, and – we’re off!


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  • #2
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    • #3
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      • #4
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        • #5
          As bad as this week has been, it’s understandable. With a little over a month’s data to work with, I knew it was a risk to begin posting, but with a truncated schedule it seemed worth it. Now – it doesn’t. The numbers are deep in the red, and I don’t want to continue posting numbers that are simply unreliable. I’ll post through the weekend, but then stop until after the All-Star game.

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          • #6
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            • #7
              This is my last posting until after the All Star break. Starting as early as I have has been a mistake. In this time of pandemic, with starters sitting unpredictably in numbers which reflect pre-playoffs strategies (when teams heading to the playoffs will sit starters or reduce their minutes), projections based on past performance data is a joke. And, given the increasing number of postponements and schedule changes, which is a time-consuming process I have barely been able to keep up with, I haven’t been able to apply the injury module for most days’ games. I do plan on returning before the playoffs, but I won’t restart posting until my results numbers improve dramatically. GLTA

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