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WEEK 1 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation
Hey kids, what time is it?! Wellllll…It’s SURVIVOR TIME!!!!!
The fun-filled time of the year where we haven’t made a stupid/losing pick yet on an NFL team to win a game without a point spread to worry about, but know we will make a stupid/losing pick on an NFL team to win a game without a point spread during the upcoming season. I should make that plural. Let us all try to learn from our tragic lessons from years gone by, and make it to the promised land of collecting some dough at the end of our pools. As Al Davis said, “Just win baby!” Al didn’t play survivor pools though, and didn’t feel the pain we’ve all felt when a team we picked that was a 10-point favorite on their home field somehow goes brain dead and loses, ripping the very soul out of a survivor players gut. I’ve really depressed myself bringing up all those memories from past seasons…I guess all the therapy sessions have been wasted.
OK! Positive note time! We have all of our picks as of now, and will do all the right things, and get all the right breaks to stay alive each week this season, and not be on the most popular belle at the ball, which gets upset and takes out half the pool with one gigantic BOOOOM! WE AREN’T DOING THAT!!!! Are we? Gulp...
For the people that check out this thread, and bounce around ideas on who to go on, and who to be wary of, you know my routine of throwing out teams worth looking at to take each and then seeing if there are good reasons to do so, or scary reasons not to. It’s great when there is dialogue in support of, and against certain teams that look attractive each week. It makes the thread stronger when more people give their opinions and give some insight into a team and some news we might have missed that can help us get on, or avoid who we think will win each week. PLEASE DON’T BE SHY!!
BTW, I did change my screen name with the new site to Seahawk Rick…Used to be Cybergolf1, but I wanted to cleanse myself of the old mojo from the previous forum set up, and begin a new giving a nod to the team that drives me effffffing nuts most games! The mighty Seachickens!!!!
I usually put my rules for the Survivor road in the first week, that I usually break in the first week! The aren’t hard and fast rules to abide by every single week, but over the 10+ years I’ve been doing these pools, I’ve seen mannnnnnnny times where following my own rules would have saved me from making a decision on taking a team that ends up losing, and making me want to grab the Jack Daniels bottle and pummel my liver!
Sooooo…For what little they are worth, here are scenarios I like to avoid when possible.
#1…Stay off the HUGE favorites when possible. Yes, I get it, the 14-point home favorite looks too easy and win is guaranteed. WRONG!!!! Many times that ends up being the case, but a couple of times a year, that pick that can’t possibly lose, and you’d bet your first born, along with your entire Star Wars action figure set, goes down in flames along with your heart collapsing upon itself when you are on that team when they lay a giant turd. These pools don’t lose at least 90% of their players by December most years because all the big favorites win each week. It sucks to be on a loser, but it sucks QUADRUPLE when you are on the big kahuna that goes down and takes 50% plus of the pool players with it! If you only have one or two picks in a pool, I think it’s even more important to stay off the big favorites. When you have at least three or more entries in a pool, I think it gives you a little room to make a pick on the big favorite here and there as early in the season you have a little cushion. I still don’t feel you should be on a regular diet of taking the biggest favorite each week…I still do feel a regular diet of chocolate cake is highly advisable though!
#2…Don’t map out your season and ‘save’ teams for later in the season. If you have 3-4-5+ picks in a pool, take one and map it out if you really want to, BUT, I don’t think there is anyone that I know who tried to map out a season of picks that ever cashed in at the end. There are just too many variables that make mapping out, and saving teams, a very futile effort. A starting QB going down takes most teams out of the running for picking them the rest of the season, so thinking it will be great to hold onto LAR, MINN, LAC, NO, or whomever you thing will be a great team to use in late November/December on a certain week, when they might have gotten you a win early in the season to move you forward, really isn’t the best way to go. There are usually 4-5 teams that surprise you and will be become viable options for you later in the year that you didn’t think would be any good starting Week 1. I was in a pool last year that went to double picks with 5-weeks left and it’s amazing how you can find value in some of the teams you thought would be toxic waste early in the season. It’s never easy if you make it to December in your pool, and have used most of your good teams, BUT, making it to December is the goal!!! If you can get to December, you’ll likely be down to the last 10-15% of active players, or even less! Make it to December however you can, picking anyone you think will get you there! Mapping in December makes some sense, but it can still backfire. Week 17 is always a crap shoot on who might be resting starters and who has quit, and who hasn't. Always an adventure!
#3…Division games…I was in a pool last year where I was knocked out Week 13 and had the double pick thing going on late in the season, but decided to just keep picking on paper the rest of the season as a drill to see what dregs I’d have to take if I was really still alive to the end. I stayed alive on paper until Week 17 and one of the teams I would have been on was BALT at home vs. CINN. BALT with a win was going to the playoffs, BUT on 4th and 12 very late in the game, CINN scores to knock their division rival OUT! That loss took tens of thousands of dollars out of survivor players that thought that was gonna be a win! Most of them are still in the fetal position as of this writing. I would have been one them, an probably wouldn’t have the strength to write this crap down right now. BALT wasn’t a great team, but we’ve all seen where a team looks great all season, but goes against a division team that is very familiar with them, and gives them all they can handle, and wins. Week 1 with PITT @ CLEV is one of those games. I am not going near it.
#4…Road teams….IFFFFF you have other options than taking a road team, take them. I feel being on a home team is a better when you have good option than being on a road team as the home team is the dog, with a chip on their shoulder, and will want to prove that they can beat a good team coming into their house! Really good teams have to win on the road to get to the playoffs, but as the season goes on, and the good teams get targets on their backs, a home dog can bark and take a bite out of your sorry survivor ass in a hurry!
#5…Don’t pick teams that are going to lose! LMEAO!!! Joking aside, picking with your heart can drive you off the road as with most bets. My Seachickens over the years have lead me into some nasty losses at home, where I thought they really had the edge. Like with any betting, looking for teams coming off emotional wins, having a ton of injuries off the previous weeks game, having a big game the next week they might be looking ahead to, and so on. The Survivor Grim-Reaper can strike at any moment! TRUST THY GUT!!!
#6...Oh yeah, almost forgot, don't double up picks on the same team! This applies more to people with only two or three entries. I think if you have more than five entries, you might be forced to on a slim-pickings week. Some people have 10 and 20 entries, which I think is nuts as you are jus asking for losses in the first few weeks where you are going on marginal teams or doubling/tripling up on teams where one gets upset. With only a couple of picks, you don't want to get knocked out of a pool on a single game when you had multiple picks.
Again…These aren’t hard and fast rules that anyone needs to follow (Print, and use them for toilet paper if you want), but I’ve seen going against them cost many a player one of their picks. At some point in the season you are going to have to break these, or whatever rules you’ve set up for yourself to try and follow. Playing by your rules can get you knocked out too as we all know, but avoiding the land mines is the key to getting to December. They are everywhere, and you don’t see them until the 2nd half of a game…Too late to do anything about it then but find the stash of opioids you kept for such an occasion! They go great with Fireball!
I for one can make a contrarian argument on for any dog to win a game, and see monsters behind every goal post that could come out and knock off a team I am on. I don’t think any favorite is a safe pick, but pick them you must!
That’s it for this edition of Seahawk Rick’s Survivor Saga…I promise to not make my opening rants into versions resembling War & Peace!
Down below I will put my take on teams worth looking at to get the party started!!! Feedback and discussion is MOST WELCOME!!!
FYI….For anyone new to this thread, there is a pool many of us are in that is run by a guy in San Diego that I cashed in on one year, and is a totally legit pool. If you want to join it, private message me and I’ll send you the sign up info. It’s a $110 buy in, and has over 2,000 players. He does a 2nd chance pool too.
Let’s start the Survivor engine and get to the finish line without driving off a cliff!
The fun-filled time of the year where we haven’t made a stupid/losing pick yet on an NFL team to win a game without a point spread to worry about, but know we will make a stupid/losing pick on an NFL team to win a game without a point spread during the upcoming season. I should make that plural. Let us all try to learn from our tragic lessons from years gone by, and make it to the promised land of collecting some dough at the end of our pools. As Al Davis said, “Just win baby!” Al didn’t play survivor pools though, and didn’t feel the pain we’ve all felt when a team we picked that was a 10-point favorite on their home field somehow goes brain dead and loses, ripping the very soul out of a survivor players gut. I’ve really depressed myself bringing up all those memories from past seasons…I guess all the therapy sessions have been wasted.
OK! Positive note time! We have all of our picks as of now, and will do all the right things, and get all the right breaks to stay alive each week this season, and not be on the most popular belle at the ball, which gets upset and takes out half the pool with one gigantic BOOOOM! WE AREN’T DOING THAT!!!! Are we? Gulp...
For the people that check out this thread, and bounce around ideas on who to go on, and who to be wary of, you know my routine of throwing out teams worth looking at to take each and then seeing if there are good reasons to do so, or scary reasons not to. It’s great when there is dialogue in support of, and against certain teams that look attractive each week. It makes the thread stronger when more people give their opinions and give some insight into a team and some news we might have missed that can help us get on, or avoid who we think will win each week. PLEASE DON’T BE SHY!!
BTW, I did change my screen name with the new site to Seahawk Rick…Used to be Cybergolf1, but I wanted to cleanse myself of the old mojo from the previous forum set up, and begin a new giving a nod to the team that drives me effffffing nuts most games! The mighty Seachickens!!!!
I usually put my rules for the Survivor road in the first week, that I usually break in the first week! The aren’t hard and fast rules to abide by every single week, but over the 10+ years I’ve been doing these pools, I’ve seen mannnnnnnny times where following my own rules would have saved me from making a decision on taking a team that ends up losing, and making me want to grab the Jack Daniels bottle and pummel my liver!
Sooooo…For what little they are worth, here are scenarios I like to avoid when possible.
#1…Stay off the HUGE favorites when possible. Yes, I get it, the 14-point home favorite looks too easy and win is guaranteed. WRONG!!!! Many times that ends up being the case, but a couple of times a year, that pick that can’t possibly lose, and you’d bet your first born, along with your entire Star Wars action figure set, goes down in flames along with your heart collapsing upon itself when you are on that team when they lay a giant turd. These pools don’t lose at least 90% of their players by December most years because all the big favorites win each week. It sucks to be on a loser, but it sucks QUADRUPLE when you are on the big kahuna that goes down and takes 50% plus of the pool players with it! If you only have one or two picks in a pool, I think it’s even more important to stay off the big favorites. When you have at least three or more entries in a pool, I think it gives you a little room to make a pick on the big favorite here and there as early in the season you have a little cushion. I still don’t feel you should be on a regular diet of taking the biggest favorite each week…I still do feel a regular diet of chocolate cake is highly advisable though!
#2…Don’t map out your season and ‘save’ teams for later in the season. If you have 3-4-5+ picks in a pool, take one and map it out if you really want to, BUT, I don’t think there is anyone that I know who tried to map out a season of picks that ever cashed in at the end. There are just too many variables that make mapping out, and saving teams, a very futile effort. A starting QB going down takes most teams out of the running for picking them the rest of the season, so thinking it will be great to hold onto LAR, MINN, LAC, NO, or whomever you thing will be a great team to use in late November/December on a certain week, when they might have gotten you a win early in the season to move you forward, really isn’t the best way to go. There are usually 4-5 teams that surprise you and will be become viable options for you later in the year that you didn’t think would be any good starting Week 1. I was in a pool last year that went to double picks with 5-weeks left and it’s amazing how you can find value in some of the teams you thought would be toxic waste early in the season. It’s never easy if you make it to December in your pool, and have used most of your good teams, BUT, making it to December is the goal!!! If you can get to December, you’ll likely be down to the last 10-15% of active players, or even less! Make it to December however you can, picking anyone you think will get you there! Mapping in December makes some sense, but it can still backfire. Week 17 is always a crap shoot on who might be resting starters and who has quit, and who hasn't. Always an adventure!
#3…Division games…I was in a pool last year where I was knocked out Week 13 and had the double pick thing going on late in the season, but decided to just keep picking on paper the rest of the season as a drill to see what dregs I’d have to take if I was really still alive to the end. I stayed alive on paper until Week 17 and one of the teams I would have been on was BALT at home vs. CINN. BALT with a win was going to the playoffs, BUT on 4th and 12 very late in the game, CINN scores to knock their division rival OUT! That loss took tens of thousands of dollars out of survivor players that thought that was gonna be a win! Most of them are still in the fetal position as of this writing. I would have been one them, an probably wouldn’t have the strength to write this crap down right now. BALT wasn’t a great team, but we’ve all seen where a team looks great all season, but goes against a division team that is very familiar with them, and gives them all they can handle, and wins. Week 1 with PITT @ CLEV is one of those games. I am not going near it.
#4…Road teams….IFFFFF you have other options than taking a road team, take them. I feel being on a home team is a better when you have good option than being on a road team as the home team is the dog, with a chip on their shoulder, and will want to prove that they can beat a good team coming into their house! Really good teams have to win on the road to get to the playoffs, but as the season goes on, and the good teams get targets on their backs, a home dog can bark and take a bite out of your sorry survivor ass in a hurry!
#5…Don’t pick teams that are going to lose! LMEAO!!! Joking aside, picking with your heart can drive you off the road as with most bets. My Seachickens over the years have lead me into some nasty losses at home, where I thought they really had the edge. Like with any betting, looking for teams coming off emotional wins, having a ton of injuries off the previous weeks game, having a big game the next week they might be looking ahead to, and so on. The Survivor Grim-Reaper can strike at any moment! TRUST THY GUT!!!
#6...Oh yeah, almost forgot, don't double up picks on the same team! This applies more to people with only two or three entries. I think if you have more than five entries, you might be forced to on a slim-pickings week. Some people have 10 and 20 entries, which I think is nuts as you are jus asking for losses in the first few weeks where you are going on marginal teams or doubling/tripling up on teams where one gets upset. With only a couple of picks, you don't want to get knocked out of a pool on a single game when you had multiple picks.
Again…These aren’t hard and fast rules that anyone needs to follow (Print, and use them for toilet paper if you want), but I’ve seen going against them cost many a player one of their picks. At some point in the season you are going to have to break these, or whatever rules you’ve set up for yourself to try and follow. Playing by your rules can get you knocked out too as we all know, but avoiding the land mines is the key to getting to December. They are everywhere, and you don’t see them until the 2nd half of a game…Too late to do anything about it then but find the stash of opioids you kept for such an occasion! They go great with Fireball!
I for one can make a contrarian argument on for any dog to win a game, and see monsters behind every goal post that could come out and knock off a team I am on. I don’t think any favorite is a safe pick, but pick them you must!
That’s it for this edition of Seahawk Rick’s Survivor Saga…I promise to not make my opening rants into versions resembling War & Peace!
Down below I will put my take on teams worth looking at to get the party started!!! Feedback and discussion is MOST WELCOME!!!
FYI….For anyone new to this thread, there is a pool many of us are in that is run by a guy in San Diego that I cashed in on one year, and is a totally legit pool. If you want to join it, private message me and I’ll send you the sign up info. It’s a $110 buy in, and has over 2,000 players. He does a 2nd chance pool too.
Let’s start the Survivor engine and get to the finish line without driving off a cliff!
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