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WEEK 1 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

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  • WEEK 1 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

    Hey kids, what time is it?! Wellllll…It’s SURVIVOR TIME!!!!!

    The fun-filled time of the year where we haven’t made a stupid/losing pick yet on an NFL team to win a game without a point spread to worry about, but know we will make a stupid/losing pick on an NFL team to win a game without a point spread during the upcoming season. I should make that plural. Let us all try to learn from our tragic lessons from years gone by, and make it to the promised land of collecting some dough at the end of our pools. As Al Davis said, “Just win baby!” Al didn’t play survivor pools though, and didn’t feel the pain we’ve all felt when a team we picked that was a 10-point favorite on their home field somehow goes brain dead and loses, ripping the very soul out of a survivor players gut. I’ve really depressed myself bringing up all those memories from past seasons…I guess all the therapy sessions have been wasted.

    OK! Positive note time! We have all of our picks as of now, and will do all the right things, and get all the right breaks to stay alive each week this season, and not be on the most popular belle at the ball, which gets upset and takes out half the pool with one gigantic BOOOOM! WE AREN’T DOING THAT!!!! Are we? Gulp...

    For the people that check out this thread, and bounce around ideas on who to go on, and who to be wary of, you know my routine of throwing out teams worth looking at to take each and then seeing if there are good reasons to do so, or scary reasons not to. It’s great when there is dialogue in support of, and against certain teams that look attractive each week. It makes the thread stronger when more people give their opinions and give some insight into a team and some news we might have missed that can help us get on, or avoid who we think will win each week. PLEASE DON’T BE SHY!!

    BTW, I did change my screen name with the new site to Seahawk Rick…Used to be Cybergolf1, but I wanted to cleanse myself of the old mojo from the previous forum set up, and begin a new giving a nod to the team that drives me effffffing nuts most games! The mighty Seachickens!!!!

    I usually put my rules for the Survivor road in the first week, that I usually break in the first week! The aren’t hard and fast rules to abide by every single week, but over the 10+ years I’ve been doing these pools, I’ve seen mannnnnnnny times where following my own rules would have saved me from making a decision on taking a team that ends up losing, and making me want to grab the Jack Daniels bottle and pummel my liver!

    Sooooo…For what little they are worth, here are scenarios I like to avoid when possible.

    #1…Stay off the HUGE favorites when possible. Yes, I get it, the 14-point home favorite looks too easy and win is guaranteed. WRONG!!!! Many times that ends up being the case, but a couple of times a year, that pick that can’t possibly lose, and you’d bet your first born, along with your entire Star Wars action figure set, goes down in flames along with your heart collapsing upon itself when you are on that team when they lay a giant turd. These pools don’t lose at least 90% of their players by December most years because all the big favorites win each week. It sucks to be on a loser, but it sucks QUADRUPLE when you are on the big kahuna that goes down and takes 50% plus of the pool players with it! If you only have one or two picks in a pool, I think it’s even more important to stay off the big favorites. When you have at least three or more entries in a pool, I think it gives you a little room to make a pick on the big favorite here and there as early in the season you have a little cushion. I still don’t feel you should be on a regular diet of taking the biggest favorite each week…I still do feel a regular diet of chocolate cake is highly advisable though!

    #2…Don’t map out your season and ‘save’ teams for later in the season. If you have 3-4-5+ picks in a pool, take one and map it out if you really want to, BUT, I don’t think there is anyone that I know who tried to map out a season of picks that ever cashed in at the end. There are just too many variables that make mapping out, and saving teams, a very futile effort. A starting QB going down takes most teams out of the running for picking them the rest of the season, so thinking it will be great to hold onto LAR, MINN, LAC, NO, or whomever you thing will be a great team to use in late November/December on a certain week, when they might have gotten you a win early in the season to move you forward, really isn’t the best way to go. There are usually 4-5 teams that surprise you and will be become viable options for you later in the year that you didn’t think would be any good starting Week 1. I was in a pool last year that went to double picks with 5-weeks left and it’s amazing how you can find value in some of the teams you thought would be toxic waste early in the season. It’s never easy if you make it to December in your pool, and have used most of your good teams, BUT, making it to December is the goal!!! If you can get to December, you’ll likely be down to the last 10-15% of active players, or even less! Make it to December however you can, picking anyone you think will get you there! Mapping in December makes some sense, but it can still backfire. Week 17 is always a crap shoot on who might be resting starters and who has quit, and who hasn't. Always an adventure!

    #3…Division games…I was in a pool last year where I was knocked out Week 13 and had the double pick thing going on late in the season, but decided to just keep picking on paper the rest of the season as a drill to see what dregs I’d have to take if I was really still alive to the end. I stayed alive on paper until Week 17 and one of the teams I would have been on was BALT at home vs. CINN. BALT with a win was going to the playoffs, BUT on 4th and 12 very late in the game, CINN scores to knock their division rival OUT! That loss took tens of thousands of dollars out of survivor players that thought that was gonna be a win! Most of them are still in the fetal position as of this writing. I would have been one them, an probably wouldn’t have the strength to write this crap down right now. BALT wasn’t a great team, but we’ve all seen where a team looks great all season, but goes against a division team that is very familiar with them, and gives them all they can handle, and wins. Week 1 with PITT @ CLEV is one of those games. I am not going near it.

    #4…Road teams….IFFFFF you have other options than taking a road team, take them. I feel being on a home team is a better when you have good option than being on a road team as the home team is the dog, with a chip on their shoulder, and will want to prove that they can beat a good team coming into their house! Really good teams have to win on the road to get to the playoffs, but as the season goes on, and the good teams get targets on their backs, a home dog can bark and take a bite out of your sorry survivor ass in a hurry!

    #5…Don’t pick teams that are going to lose! LMEAO!!! Joking aside, picking with your heart can drive you off the road as with most bets. My Seachickens over the years have lead me into some nasty losses at home, where I thought they really had the edge. Like with any betting, looking for teams coming off emotional wins, having a ton of injuries off the previous weeks game, having a big game the next week they might be looking ahead to, and so on. The Survivor Grim-Reaper can strike at any moment! TRUST THY GUT!!!

    #6...
    Oh yeah, almost forgot, don't double up picks on the same team! This applies more to people with only two or three entries. I think if you have more than five entries, you might be forced to on a slim-pickings week. Some people have 10 and 20 entries, which I think is nuts as you are jus asking for losses in the first few weeks where you are going on marginal teams or doubling/tripling up on teams where one gets upset. With only a couple of picks, you don't want to get knocked out of a pool on a single game when you had multiple picks.

    Again…These aren’t hard and fast rules that anyone needs to follow (Print, and use them for toilet paper if you want), but I’ve seen going against them cost many a player one of their picks. At some point in the season you are going to have to break these, or whatever rules you’ve set up for yourself to try and follow. Playing by your rules can get you knocked out too as we all know, but avoiding the land mines is the key to getting to December. They are everywhere, and you don’t see them until the 2nd half of a game…Too late to do anything about it then but find the stash of opioids you kept for such an occasion! They go great with Fireball!

    I for one can make a contrarian argument on for any dog to win a game, and see monsters behind every goal post that could come out and knock off a team I am on. I don’t think any favorite is a safe pick, but pick them you must!

    That’s it for this edition of Seahawk Rick’s Survivor Saga…I promise to not make my opening rants into versions resembling War & Peace!

    Down below I will put my take on teams worth looking at to get the party started!!! Feedback and discussion is MOST WELCOME!!!

    FYI….For anyone new to this thread, there is a pool many of us are in that is run by a guy in San Diego that I cashed in on one year, and is a totally legit pool. If you want to join it, private message me and I’ll send you the sign up info. It’s a $110 buy in, and has over 2,000 players. He does a 2nd chance pool too.

    Let’s start the Survivor engine and get to the finish line without driving off a cliff!
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-08-2018, 12:56 PM.

  • #2
    WEEK ONE GAME CHECK...

    OK troops, lets look at Week 1 games and see if we can pick some winners…And then pray to the Survivor God’s that you went the right way, and that the bounces are in your favor! Have cocktails close by as 4th quarters can take years off of your life in some of the games you pick!

    It always takes me the first few weeks of games to get a grasp of what each team might be capable, but Week 2 becomes overreaction theater to Week 1. I like taking good QB’s and good defenses as a starting point for finding some Week 1 winners. The oddsmakers as always are playing to the perception of the average fan, and how teams should be rated with their point spreads in the fans eyes to a big degree. Good teams with a big core group coming back have an edge, and maybe a few of their draft picks shine early. The games below are just some of my general thoughts and can be tossed in the fire along with any Captain and Tennille cassettes you might have lying around!

    Please chime in on teams you like, and why, along with some of the favorites that should be teams to avoid. We all have a favorite team we follow closely and that info can be helpful to us all to find a team we might not have been thinking about. Let’s help each other get to the money bag and get a handful!

    GOOD LUCK!!!!!

    TEAMS WORTH LOOKING AT…

    TB @ NO…The Voo-Doo kids get started at home with their new running game they got going last year with Kamara and a defense that is getting better as they moved up 13-spots to get DE Marcus Davenport. Brees is up there in his years, but still is getting it done. Tough to go against them at home vs. TB and no Winston at QB. NO is by far the favorite pick at close to 30% right now, and that fact alone makes you want to shy away if you are rolling with a one or two entries. I will include them as a pick because I have 5-entries in each of my pools. The one thing as of now is that for the 2nd year in-a-row, we have a hurricane to worry about in the home team area. HOU got whacked hard last year and the team was not focused on their opener that took me and many other survivor players out. This one isn’t as strong, and NO isn’t ground zero, but if it changes course and hits on Wednesday, and keeps the players from a regular routine, it’s worth taking into consideration. I’d play this one by ear.

    BUFF @ BALT…Nathan Peterman…Starting QB for BUFF…Nuff said. He played one game vs. LAC last season and was horrible…I’m sure all the reps have helped but it’s a tough go to get on the road in the opener and find a win vs. a good, but not great BALT team. Flacco has Lamar Jackson behind him now and knows he has to raise his game at QB to keep his job all season as he’s not what he used to be. New DC in BALT has the players excited, and a team that was +17 in giveaway/takeaways. I don’t have supreme confidence in Flacco, but I have enough faith in their defense to slow down Peterman in game one. One of my picks most likely.

    NYJ @ DET…Another bet against a team kind of thing with Darnold starting for NYJ, and hitting the road for the game vs. DET. DET is never in the talk of going to the SB, but Stafford finds a way to get them into the playoff hunt without a running game. New HC Patricia drafted two RB’s plus has LeGarrette Blount, who should finally give Stafford the help he needs to take the games off his arm some. It’s not a glamor game, but they’ll be down the ladder as far as a favorite pick of around 10% as I write this. I will include them as one of my picks.

    HOU @ NE…NE always is tough to go against, and HOU is a question mark right now as how close will they be to the team they were with Watson at QB and a healthy JJ Watt on D. HOU D wasn’t good last year, but maybe some of that is that they were on the field longer once Watson went down along with their offense. Honey Badger joins the defense, but is it enough to go to the home of Lord Vader and find a way to win against what is yet again a SB caliber team. Bellacheat had a lot of time to be ready to HOU. I don’t think I’ll be on this one, but worth a look.

    CHI @ GB…Mr. Rodgers is back, and that means a ton to GB. Jimmy Graham is a new weapon for them, unless you want him to block! LOL! GB drafted CB’s and along with a free agent CB and DE Muhammad Wilkerson to try to fix a leaky defense and give the ball to Aaron and the gang more often. CHI has a very good defense though, and Mr. Mack is in their stable now to help the 10th ranked defense last year get even better. The question is how will Trubisky play, and will he be effective on the road where the crowd will be on tilt with Rodgers back. It’s a division game, so I won’t be on it as there are enough other choices to stay off this one.

    SF @ MINN…SF with Jimmy G at QB won a number of games at the end of last season, but not against very good teams. On the road in MINN with a good D will test the G-Man right off the bat, and that place gets LOUD!!!! Sherman added to the defense, but RB McKinnon is out for the season with a knee. They hype machine is pumped up for SF, and it will take a lot of things to go right for them to match it. I’ll take the great D vs. the QB that hasn’t proved himself yet against stiff competition. I might include them in my picks.

    DANGEROUS BUT A MAYBE…

    PITT @ CLEVE…We all have jinx teams, and PITT is one of my main three along with CHI and LAC. Le’Veon Bell is playing holdout games, and still isn’t in the locker room as of this writing. CLEVE had a pretty good defense last year, and if they had a decent QB, they would have won 5-6 games easy IMHO. Tyrod gives them a big step up at QB with Mayfield waiting in the wings if he falters. New OC Haley will open up the offense. Josh Gordon will play some along with Landry at WR giving Taylor some weapons. It’s a division game, so a no-go for me.

    LAR @ OAK…Well, the OAK players are pissed they lost their best player, and Chucky has the pot stirred up big time…How much does all that play into game prep vs. what should be the NFC West winner and SB contender in LAR. They bring Suh on, along with Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib at CB. They had to get rid of LB’s to make all the stars fit together. Brandin Crooks gets added at WR to go along with Gurley in the backfield. On paper, they are tough…Can they make it happen and match the hype they’ve been given. As a Seachicken fan, I hope not, but we’ll see how all the egos mesh and if the starters lack of playing time in the preseason will have an affect on the opener.

    KC at LAC…I like LAC to win the AFC to win the west as many others do, but it’s a division game to get things rolling vs. KC and the Andy Reid “I can win, but just not the big one” road show and the conductor at QB, Parick Mahomes. He has plenty of targets, so can he get it done on the road against a very good LAC team. Division game, so a no-go for me, but I like LAC here.

    JAX @ NYG…JAX had a magical run last year and almost knocked off Imperial Stormtroopers in NE last year. BUT…Can Bortles look good two years in-a-row?? OBJ got his payday, and they drafted RB Saquon Barkley for NYG, but is that enough to make a jump into being respectable…I don’t think so. IF JAC can pick up where they left off, I think they win one on the road…BUT, they are on the road, and will leave that one to others to pick.

    LOOK ELSEWHERE UNLESS YOU HAVE A GUT FEEL…

    ATL @ PHILLY…Just sit back and watch this one, and hope for a good start to the NFL season! ATL might spoil the party for PHILLY fans.

    CINN @ INDY…When two bad teams play each other, take the home team…Take some Xanax while you’re at if go on INDY.

    TENN @ MIA…I have now idea…Gun to my head, pull the trigger so I don’t have to watch it…Unless I’m having trouble sleeping, then flip it on!

    SEA @ DEN…Oh how my Seachickens have changed…The LOB is MIA with Earl Thomas not in the locker room yet. KJ Wright one of their veteran LB’s out too so the one-handed dude Shaquem Griffen will start. They will have a better O-line because it can’t get worse and their RB’s are healthy for the moment. DEN has a good D though and Keenum at QB that will help some. I will watch and hope my birds surprise me…

    DAL @ CAR…Give the edge to the home team…No Dez or Whitten for DAL, but maybe that helps not having DEZ as a distraction. They have the kettle-jumper Elliott for the full season too and should help the running game. Can Prescott get past his regression from last year? Tough to play at CAR, and a nod to them to win. I don’t have a strong enough feel to take CAR, but maybe you do!

    WASH @ ARI…Who the F**K knows!

    Well…Let’s bat the games around and get the collective brain cells working together to find some gems and not pick any piles of steaming goat ca-ca!
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-03-2018, 09:36 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      Good news I can read.Ha Ha.When I was in 3 rd grade my teacher said Little Volo,I was only 5-10 then,if you reach 83 at the rate you are going it will be a miracle.
      She also said stand up straight,only kneel in church and. Do not bet the Obvious.The first team I threw out this week is NO.GL to all and let’s get to week 2.

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        I know NO is gonna be a big favorite, but I have multiple entries, without a lot of confidence in anymore than 3-4 teams...That's the conundrum that makes breaking my rules in Week 1 ALWAYS happen! LOL!
        Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-04-2018, 11:41 AM.

    • #4
      All right...good to see you, Seahawk Rick (aka cybergolf1...I'm still working on the "Title" issue LMEAO

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Have your 'people' take care of the grunt work!! ;-)

    • #5
      Baltimore over Buffalo looks to be the best option in the opening week. Good luck, guys.

      Comment


      • #6
        My two picks right now Are Baltimore and Detroit.How is this for a parlay.My grandson is a Senior in HS and is applying to College.His 4 that he is interested in are
        not in any order,ND,Duke,BC and Northwestern.All 4 Won and covered last week.

        Comment


        • #7
          Who is this Seahawk Rick that is doing this thread??? Never heard of the guy..,....Better put him on your watch list....lol,.......just kidding....he is one of the good ones on here. ...make sure you follow him or read his threads each week......pretty much knows what he is talking about, lol. Love ya CYBER!!

          Comment


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            'Pretty much knows what he is talking about" LOL! You must be reallllllly drunk when you read my 8,000 words of nonsense at the top of the thread each week!

            Now go tell someone to write a better reason for their pick on the POW thread!!!

            ATL...What a surprise! I actually think they can go in there and get a win...PITT is another story...On the road to open with Le'Veon on the side of a milk carton as of now. Better team, but the BROWNies think they can actually win a few games this year, and why not pull out the trick bag on the dreaded Steelers and Ben the rapist at QB! CLEV with a decent defense and a QB that can help their offense not go 3-and-out 20-times a game.
            Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-03-2018, 08:37 PM.

        • #8
          In all honesty, my two choices this week would be either ATL or PIT

          Comment


          • #9
            Your voice from Miami.Not a Survivor Pick but Dolphins are a bet against team.I bet them under 6 1/2 wins and will bet TENN Sunday.They had trouble selling tickets so they partnered up with local Police buy one get one free etc.When Owner came out about no problem kneeling outside of Church the police etc sent tickets back and may protest on support your law Sunday.
            As I said last year the only truly American sport is Horse Racing as I never saw a Ahorse kneel.SeaHawk,have to get use to your new name,how many entry in Million $ pool?

            Comment


            • Seahawk Rick
              Seahawk Rick commented
              Editing a comment
              I agree that MIA has to prove something to be trusted at all in any game going forward this season. IF the game is at TENN, it's a play for me, but staying off road teams.

              I don't want to make anything on this thread political, but fans, Police, and whomever else doesn't like the kneeling because they think it's about the flag are missing, or just not wanting to hear about the reason they are kneeling, but I get why people can be angry about it all. I'll leave it at that. The NFL should just put the players back in the locker room like it used to be, but the military has been paying the NFL to have players out on the field. Something needs to give. Players reps and NFL are still talking about it all...Not sure if any solution is possible to please everyone. It's a mess.

              I will still watch, as this is my part-time job that I never seem to make any money at!

              I'm with you on your picks VOLO, which means we are in trouble! ;-)

          • #10
            Originally posted by TARB View Post
            Baltimore over Buffalo looks to be the best option in the opening week. Good luck, guys.
            It's one if my picks TARB...

            Comment


            • #11
              Did not want to make a political statement but only show Miami does not have the support of a home crowd.I have a feeling we go along ways this year.

              Comment


              • #12
                Originally posted by Mrvolo View Post
                Did not want to make a political statement but only show Miami does not have the support of a home crowd.I have a feeling we go along ways this year.
                No worries Volo, you weren't trying to fan any flames...I was just trying to comment on the kneeling without fanning the embers and being political myself...It's all good. Hot button topic we'll leave for another thread that someone else can start.

                Let's win big boy!

                Comment


                • #13
                  I think I'm leaning Baltimore here. I like NO best of all, but obviously, so does everyone else. For that reason, I'll stay away. I also like Minnesota, but do think they have value coming up in home games against Buffalo and Arizona. For that reason, I think I'll stay away. Baltimore appears, on paper for now at least, to have a tougher schedule. I can't foresee wanting to use them until possibly week 12 or week 15, so now seems as good a time as any.

                  Comment


                  • Seahawk Rick
                    Seahawk Rick commented
                    Editing a comment
                    Not sure how many entries you have but if only 1-2, good to stay away from the most popular pick.

                    I like BALT better than MINN but will include MINN in my picks as I have 5 entries rolling this season in my pools.

                    Good luck!

                • #14
                  I'm going with Detroit mainly because I cant find another game where I like them better than this week. Might get eliminated but goal is to stay alive all season not to stay alive until week 2.

                  Love these discussions you guys.

                  Comment


                  • Seahawk Rick
                    Seahawk Rick commented
                    Editing a comment
                    Yeah Huge, DET not a strong contender for playoffs but new HC can get energy going and they stocked on RB'S to take some heat off Stafford.

                    You might have read above that I don't map stuff as things will always screw up maps when big injuries happen but seems like a good time to catch Darnold on his first real game.

                    Good luck!

                • #15
                  This is a screen shot of part of the Survivor Grid you can find on https://www.survivorgrid.com/picks

                  There are a few ways to filter it, and for those of you that like to map things out (You know how I feel about that! LOL), it offers you a look into the future based on possible point spreads for the whole season.

                  It takes into account several big survivor pools run by free sites that get a lot of players. It will give you decent idea of the who the average guy/gal is likely to be on, and might give you an idea of who to steer away from if you are trying to avoid being on the really popular picks.

                  The numbers shift some during the week, but not to a huge extent unless a main player is making news that they won't or will play.

                  There is a longer list, but I just put the top 11 on here for now. I'll update it when I have time.

                  Some of us have Thursday deadlines, but other pools don't need picks in until just before kickoff so you can see how things might change in who the masses like and dislike.

                  Click image for larger version  Name:	survivor grid.JPG Views:	1 Size:	38.7 KB ID:	290
                  Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-05-2018, 10:32 PM.

                  Comment

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