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WEEK 1 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

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  • WEEK 1 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

    Hellllllloooooo Boys & Girls! Hope you're all vaxxed up and ready to get on the Survivor Merry-Go-Round where the further we go, the more of a chance we have to barf!

    I hope everyone is healthy and keeping this bastard at bay...If you've had the Demon Covid, I hope it wasn't a bad case. MY PSA for getting the vaccine is that do it for yourself, your family, your friends, your planet...This shit is real and I know a number of people that got it, including vaccinated people that got mild cases because THEY GOT THE VACCINE! Don't be an idiot, and don't listen to the social media misinformation out there that people actually make money off of spreading it. You won't grow a horn or be chipped like a dog...FAUX News will have you believe such things, but they are playing to the lower end of the gene pool and getting people killed in the process.

    OOOOOOOOKKKKKKKKKK....OFF that soapbox and won't bring it up again.

    For those new to this thread, we try to have a place to go back and forth on teams that will be good Survivor/Eliminator picks each week..We try to let everyone know if there are some key injuries that might not get on everyone's radar before the games begin. I'd love to see even more 'conversation' instead of just saying who you are picking each week. I'm not saying write a novel, but back up your pick(s) with some reasons you think they at at good choice that week.

    My general strategy is to be on home teams and avoid division games when possible. I'm not a big fan of being on the biggest favorite on the board as when those teams lose, they can take 50-60% of the pool players with them! I think if you have multiple picks that it's not the worst idea to be on the big favorite, but just don't make a steady diet of it.Bottom line, whatever 'rules' you make for yourself, you'll probably break one in Week 1!

    You'll see people with 10 & 20 entries in bigger pools and usually the winners only have 1 or 2 entries. Money can't fix stupid. Part of it is when they have multiple picks on a bigger favorite they think is a 'lock' and watch the team unlock the loss column for them to add to and lose multiple entries in on one team!

    Some people like to map...Most know I'm not a huge fan of that as you are just trying to get to early-mid December anyway you can as most years, pools are down to a low percentage and there is even the possibility of some chopping of remaining money left. Not stupid to leave some good teams for December/January, but an injured QB wipes that 'saved' team off the map in a hurry. There are a few teams nobody thought would be good that show some progress and over-achieve, and some that are thought to be playoff contenders that can't get out of their own way and wallow in their preseason press clippings.

    The 17-game season will make the numbers of losers grow IMHO as it's one more week to need a good team to choose from and cull the herd a little more.

    Do what your gut says, or just have some Woodford or Tequila near by to get you through the heart-breaking losses and the last second wins! Nobody gets to the end of one of these things without gaining some gray hairs, but keep an open mind to some of the 'B' teams out there that can get you some sneaky wins without having to be on the big favorites every week.

    survivorgrid.com is a decent site that will let you do mapping if you so choose, and gives a good indicator of teams Survivor value as in a team might only have one other week they look to be a solid choice so you'll want to pull the trigger on them before they get to tougher competition. The flip side is some teams will be a good choice during many weeks of the season so they don't need to be use too early. It also shows a consensus of people in big pools they track so you can see by Wednesday who the biggest percentage of people are going on.

    A number of us on this thread are in a $100 buy-in pool that is run by a guy (Adam) that started it maybe 20-years ago on pencil and paper and now has up around 2,000 entries for a $200,000 pot that splits half at the end of the season and then who's every left gets into a playoff for the other half. If you are interested in joining, private message me and I'll send you entry info. I won $10,000 in it once and I feel like I'm Woody Harrelson in Hunger Games where I was the king for one year, and now just trying to be relevant! There is also a million dollar pot pool me and some of the others are in that goes to picking two-teams towards the end of the year based on how many entrants are left. That pool goes from 10,000 to down under 30 for the pot-splitters. ****I put Adam's pool entry info down below in the thread!

    Some of us are in some smaller pools too...Feel free to ask to enter them and if you are in a pool that's open to new players, put the word out and maybe some of us will want to get in and help build the pot!

    I'll throw some garbage out each week about the games on-tap that can be printed off and used to line the bird cage or used as toilet paper when the next scare to civilization happens and the 36-roll packs at Costco become worth more than one of the fur coats Volo has that he got from Joe Namath back in the day!

    Be well,and above all else, get picks in each week on Monday/Tuesday so you don't become a casualty and 'Missed Deadline' is next to your name. You can always change your picks, but put some in the chamber early so you got somebody chosen.

    Pick some winners!!

    Seahawk Rick
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-07-2021, 09:23 PM.

  • #2
    LET'S ROLL THE DICE AND FIND A POT OF GOLD COME JANUARY!!!!

    OK kids, time for the start of the merriest time of the year!!! No, not the big lawn dart and Jello wrestling fiesta at Volo's posh Miami mansion, it's SURVIVOR TIME!!!

    The time of the year that gives everyone hope they can pick a winner a week for 17-weeks and collect untold riches to pay for hookers and Fireball during Super Bowl! Most years, I have enough left to have some Mac & Cheese...With a fine Chianti.

    Like I said above, lets try to get some conversation going each week where people can give reasons they like or not like a team. With Covid lurking around the locker room, that will be a reason not to take a team possibly along with all the injury news no one person can stay on top of.

    I usually throw some of the games out there that will get some attention by players. PLEASE post other games you think should be mentioned and any news you can share on teams you follow that might give us all an edge.


    ON THE RADAR...


    [email protected]...Well, the defending champs are bringing back ALL 22-starters I read. That right there is reason enough to feel like they are worth a pick. DAL always lulls us into thinking 'this is their year!' but only to fizzle come playoff time. Dak is back and will make them a better team. Is there a letdown with TB? I don't think Tommy boy will let players think they just have to show up and other teams will just fall down.

    [email protected]...I'm a believer in BUFF and the path they are taking and the D is solid. Josh Allen is only getting better. I don't like Ben the rapist so that taints my view of them but to start off the season against the BUFF D when PITT only averaged 90-yards rushing last year makes it a tough go for the Steelers.

    [email protected]...I think this could be the easiest team on the board as SF is healthy again and Jimmy G just needs to be average with the D they have. I picked them as my POW play as DET last year gave up an average of 32-points...5th worst in NFL history or something like that. I might take some of Volo's money he won at the horse track this summer and back up the truck on the 9ers! I'll probably break a rule right off the bat and take them with a pick.

    [email protected]...What does a SB loss do to a team? Many times they don't even make the playoffs but I think this KC team is a different cat and knows they have the talent to be in the hunt and play for the AFC Championship. An improved O-line will let Patty Boy do what he does best...Everything! CLEV the talent to hang around as they won 11-games last year and were a very hot redzone team. I don't know much about KC's D, but I think they'll put too many points on the board each week for many teams to beat them if the O-line meets expectations.

    [email protected]...Love LAR with Stafford in the mix instead of Jared Cough...As in he coughs up fur balls. Sean McVay will craft a game plan for a QB with a brain that he didn't have the last few years. CHI has the Red Rifle, Andrew Dalton at the help even though the whole fan base wants Justin Fields to be the starter. Andy might get pulled after the first 3-and-out!

    [email protected]...Almost forgot about this one. Darnold goes against his old team and McCaffrey is back and should add some energy to the team and help Darnold out on the offensive side of the ball. A rookie QB for NYJ is always a crap shoot and on the road even a little tougher. Not sure how many times you can take CAR this year, but it might be a way to get a win from a 'B' team that you'll need a few of this season.

    [email protected]..Not a big fan of road teams and BALT can be used down the road at home, but I haven't read anything yet that gives me any confidence that LV can bring it against a wild running QB in Jackson and a usually strong D.

    Chime in on these games or any others you think are worthy of consideration and we'll bat them around and come up with a short list.

    Adam's pool pick deadline isn't until Saturday this week, but it's Thursday the rest of the season.

    Whatever pools you are in, get picks in now, as you can always change them but you don't want to be the 'Missed Deadline' dude...It happens in Adam's pools multiple times every season.

    GOOD LUCK!!!!!!
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-07-2021, 09:12 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      Great to see you back Rick! Always look forward to your weekly writeups. Entertaining and informative. Let's get the Survivor Rollover going again this year! PS I'd be interested in joining Adam's pool and the $1,000,000 pools. Can you PM me the info? Thanks.
      Last edited by DaveyShines; 09-07-2021, 04:37 AM.

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Davey, check you PMs.

    • #4
      Feels like it was just yesterday that I was collecting my winnings from last year. Guess it is time to start looking at week 1 games. Just returned home from a footballpalooza weekend. Flew up to ATL Friday Night to go to the Bama/UM game on Saturday, then flew down to Tallahassee Sunday morning to go to the FSU/ND game Sunday Night.

      I'll wait for Rick's first post and maybe chime in with some insight.

      Comment


      • mtheller
        mtheller commented
        Editing a comment
        I gave up on the million dollar pool. Feel I have better chances on a smaller pool without multiple picks in some weeks. Really need a group to get together and pool the picks in order to have a shot. I split with a few others in Hratch's pool last year.

      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Yeah, Volo feels the same way. I might drop out at some point but $$$ signs have an alure... I'm in for two entries this season. 3 in Adam's pool.

      • mtheller
        mtheller commented
        Editing a comment
        10k plus entries in that pool, so are you really playing for $1MM or hoping to split 10 ways and take home $100k? Let's be real, how many times will that pool ever have a single winner or less than 5? Feel the money is better spent with more picks in Adam's pool.

    • #5
      Always wait to read this every week and GL to all VFV members.Last year I cashed as a partner in ADAMS second pool.We split 4000$ but missed the playoff pot of 90,000$ when GB goes for 3 trailing by 8 with little time left.In a bunch of little pools and 2 entries in Adam.Looks like in week one we have SF and LAR top picks.Can we beat both and knock out 50%?Back latter with picks.I also gave up on Million $ pool

      Comment


      • #6
        Who is this?

        Comment


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          Your worst nightmare! I know you only come on this thread for the Liz Hurley photos!
          Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-07-2021, 08:56 PM.

      • #7
        Oh I remember now---


        Hi and congratulations to all who won ANY dough last year- crazy year--
        Will be back with picks-- 3 in adams pool before I buy back in as usual to 2nd chance lol


        Best of luck to all who try and beat this seemingly easy game - It's like 3 card Monte- seems easy but ya never beat it

        Comment


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          Even gets tougher with a 17th game... I might just draw out of a hat this season! Only 14 teams won't be used so you might have to take a few B-level teams.
          Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-07-2021, 12:47 PM.

      • #8
        Good to this thread back again. Can pick up lots of interesting and profitable facts here.

        ps: fully vaxed and disappointed to learn I won't be growing a horn.

        Comment


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          Nice to see you back Redeye... There is the possibility of you growing a 6th toe in each foot along with developing constant cravings for peanut butter on sushi and wanting to belt out J-lo songs at any given moment. I read it on the internet, so it must be true! 😁
          Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-07-2021, 12:48 PM.

      • #9
        Hey there, been a couple of years since I've been on here, with no survivor success since I left so I thought I'd come back and hear the experts! In two pools Adam's and Dave's with 3 each.

        Comment


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          Great to have you around Steam! If you want 'expert' analysis, you'll need to find a different thread!! 🤣

      • #10
        Always great discussion in these threads, so thanks to everyone for chiming in with Survivor thoughts.

        Now, before the season starts, I hear everyone mentioning "Adam's pool" and "Dave's pool" etc., but I've never gotten in one outside Vegas. Is anyone able to post contact info for those of us looking to join the fun? (And any added info such as entry fees or things like "this one closes registration early on Wednesday" would also be appreciated. Or send on DM if uncomfortable posting in public on one or any pool.

        Comment


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          Thanks for dropping by Dave!

          I posted Adam's pool info a number of years ago and somebody said that it wasn't a good idea to make it public so I had people DM me if they wanted info on the pool.

          I'm fine with posting and Adam wouldn't care as he charges 10% on top of the $100 entry fee so he makes more with more players in the pool.

          Anyone see issues with posting the email he sends out?

          Dave's pool is one that has over a million in the pot but it's closed to more entries as of now at 13,000. $1.3 mil.
          Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-07-2021, 07:15 PM.

      • #11
        Adam's $100 pool entry information...

        This will make it easy for anyone that wants to get into it. He's flexible on getting the dough and as long as he knows you're sending it, the deadline isn't a big deal...But get your entries in ASAP so he knows you're gonna enter and email him if need be about how you're paying. He charges everyone an extra $10 as his fee for running the pool. If you win, I wouldn't tip him, but that's up to you...He's making over $20,000K off this one and another good chunk off his 2nd chance pool. He's worked hard to get this thing as big as it is.

        -------------------------------------

        There’s still time to get your friends and family in, but the deadline is quickly approaching...

        THINGS TO KNOW:
        1. The actual deadline for entry is being extended to Saturday, September 11th. This is the day before the first Sunday games. The first Thursday game is off limits, and cannot be picked.
        2. The deadline for making your pick, ONLY FOR THE FIRST WEEK, is Saturday, September 11th, at 8:00pm PT (11:00pm ET). EVERY OTHER WEEKLY DEADLINE WILL STILL BE ON THURSDAY NIGHT, at 5:00pm PT (8:00pm ET). This is the weekly deadline, REGARDLESS of whether you pick the Thursday game, or not.
        YOU MUST SIGN UP FRESH, WHETHER YOU WERE IN THIS POOL LAST YEAR OR NOT. It takes only about 30 seconds (separate signup for each entry. If you're entering multiple times, you can use the BACK button, and just change your username and submit again).
        Please send in the money, immediately, if you haven’t already...
        To sign up, go to: http://www.nflsurvivor.com/signup/
        THEN, follow these payment instructions:
        Send a check ($110 per entry) to:
        Adam Blumenfeld
        5663 Balboa Avenue
        Suite 437
        San Diego, CA 92111
        I can accept Paypal, Venmo, Zelle and SquareCash (CashApp). Please include an extra $5 per entry for electronic payment (So, $115 per entry).
        The Venmo account is: @Adam-Blumenfeld-4.
        The SquareCash (CashApp) account is: $AdamBlumenfeld.
        The Paypal account is: [email protected].
        The Zelle account is: [email protected].

        DO NOT REFERENCE ANY KIND OF POOL, or words like "entry", or "picks" or "survivor". DO NOT PUT ANY SPORTS ICONS IN THE NOTES. Just list your Username(s), and I'll figure it out. Electronic payment companies have anti-gambling policies.
        If you don't have SquareCash (CashApp), and want to sign up for free, if you give my referral code, we both get $5. It's up to you. My code is: PDJVQKT. The link is: www.cash.me/app/PDJVQKT
        Please don't ask me to confirm receipt, unless you really think something has gone wrong. I've got many entries that I'm trying to keep straight. You can tell if I've received your payment by logging in. Your status will be either "Pending" or "Active". Please don't ask me to confirm receipt, unless you really think something has gone wrong. I've got over 2000 entries that I'm trying to keep straight.
        If your status is "Pending", it just means that I haven't received your payment. YOU ARE STILL IN THE POOL. YOU HAVE FULL FUNCTIONALITY OF THE WEBSITE. YOUR PICKS WILL COUNT. But, make sure your money is on its way... Just the fact that you have signed up, and not told me to remove you, means you have agreed to send in payment. So, send in payment...
        As stated above, I CAN accept Venmo again. My Venmo account was previously shut down for two years, because too many of you mentioned gambling in the notes. DON'T DO THIS!!!
        Any Questions:
        email - [email protected]
        FEEL FREE TO FORWARD this to anyone that you feel might be interested. BUT, IF YOU DO pass this pool on to your friends, BE SURE to send this email, so they know about not mentioning gambling... The more, the merrier... and the more money in the pot. That's it. Sign up, send your payment, and pass this on... and good luck.

        Adam
        [email protected]
        Website address: http://www.nflsurvivor.com

        Comment


        • #12
          The guidelines I like to follow for these

          **DO NOT take the #1 team of the week: These picks do go down and if one goes down it wipes out a lot of the pool. Not you if you are not on this team.
          **Try to avoid Div games: There are only 6 of them and they are so important
          **Try to avoid Road Teams: Funny things happen on the road - especially when indoor teams go outside
          **Try to avoid Underdogs: If Vegas doesn't think a team can win why should I?

          ​​​​​​​

          Comment


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            Nice to see ya on the board Wink...All good points. I don't think anyone on this thread takes underdogs, but we'll all take a road or division team at some point.

            The #1 pick thing is a funny one as yes, you feel like absolute dog crap if you're on a team that loses with 70% of the pool on them...There isn't enough Absolute to ease the pain. I think the super favorites have their place as the goal is to find a team that will get you a win, but not make a steady diet of it. People with multiple picks have more wiggle room early in the season to go on some bigger faves, but if you only have one pick, better to find a team a few rungs down the ladder IMHO.

        • #13
          Survivorgrid.com

          Here's an early look at big pools and how the picking is going so far. The list doesn't move around much unless a big injury happens at practice or if Covid becomes an issue for key players later in the week.

          The top 3 get a lot of love and even CAR is in the mix. [email protected] might be the sneaky play of the week as HOU is not going to be much this year but have Tyrod Taylor at QB, which isn't the worst thing in the world...First game for Trevor Lawrence at QB for JAX.

          Click image for larger version  Name:	sgadamw1.JPG Views:	1 Size:	26.2 KB ID:	21657
          Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-07-2021, 09:28 PM.

          Comment


          • #14
            I'm on SF in Adam's pool. Would've taken TB but for some reason he doesn't allow it in Week 1. Jimmy G is back and motivated with first round pick Lance breathing down his neck. Kittle is healthy again and the SF D is pretty darn good. The Lions might be the doormat of the conference.

            The Rams might be ripe for an upset. They lost some key starters from last year and their O-line is reportedly shaky. The Chicago D is (especially front 7) is solid and the Red Rifle might be able to make some hay.
            Last edited by DaveyShines; 09-08-2021, 04:49 AM.

            Comment


            • Seahawk Rick
              Seahawk Rick commented
              Editing a comment
              I'm onboard the 9er train this week as if they lose this one, I don't deserve to be in a pool and should just move to Tibet and try out that whole monk thing. I can still have an offshore there, right?! 😁

              I need to look at the LAR/CHI game more to get a handle on injuries. The Rifle is a decent QB. Not sure about LAR D... Need to research.

          • #15
            I know it’s Detroit but that game is a 1pm Eastern time game for SF. Not sure how those games have been going recently except that it really doesn’t affect Seattle. Just something else to think about for that game. Good thing is they just need to win, not cover.

            Comment


            • Seahawk Rick
              Seahawk Rick commented
              Editing a comment
              Welcome back Buck! Not sure of 49er early start record but the first game of the year is a good one to have it on as players are pretty jacked up for an opener IMHO.
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