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WEEK 8 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

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  • WEEK 8 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation


    Seven OT games in-a-row…More FG’s deciding games in mostly bad ways for the kicking teams…Mahomes goes nuts passing. Things to count on this season in the NFL, along with the sun coming up, and Jason Whitten saying something stupid on MNF. Man, I wish Tony Romo could do those games…

    No huge upsets, but there were some close calls that could have knocked out more than the roughly 10% of survivalists this past weekend.

    LAC dodges a crumpet in the butt with TENN going for the two-point conversion to win the game, and failing. I like the aggressive call, but TENN hasn’t gotten a two-point conversion in 7-attempts I think. Hard to take away much from the game where the jet lag must have been a factor.

    NE pickers along with DaveyShines and his Roll-Survivor-Roll bet must have been in momentary paralysis when that last hail mary got launched that could have tied the game. NE looking good, and Trubisky is getting better and better. What happened to the vaunted CHI D?

    BUFF has taken the CLEV torch and will be a bet against most of the season unless Allen comes back at QB that ‘might’ give them a shot vs. a crap team to get a win. INDY had the bulk of the survivalists on them, and they were rewarded! INDY has proven they can beat a cat turd easily at home.

    HOU is quietly getting it done…Maybe not against great competition, but getting W’s…JAX has folded up like a $5 tent, and we’ll see who JAX wants to get as their new QB after Bortles fake us all out last year into believing he might be able to become a good QB!

    DET is now 3-3 and in the division hunt, but hopefully lose to my Seachickens this Sunday. The fish are who we thought they were, a team that has a good record, but isn’t good enough to get a wildcard.

    MINN took care of business on the road, and are getting better every week as they send Darnny and JETS back to the drawing board to do more work on their rebuilding efforts.

    PHIL defense never came out after halftime and let Cammy make a big comeback on the road vs. the champs that now have ‘no pressure’ on them
    says coach Pederson…Ummm…You play in Philly…They threw batteries at Santa in Philly…They will be boohooing the crap out of them this season no matter how shiny that Lombardi they won is!

    CLEVE…4th OT game of the year, and another heartbreaker…UNLESS YOU’RE ME!!! I had TB as a survivor pick AND as one of my two-picks in the Roll-Survivor-Roll thing some of us are doing. I was counting the money, burning the money, blowing the fire out, throwing the money away, hoping for a push, and then FINALLY getting a miracle win after multiple FG chances missed, BUT the final one somehow got through the uprights!

    BALT had a kicker that was at one point 222 for 222 making extra points…He’s now 222/223 as he missed the one to tie it vs. Brees and the boys. NO got a good win there, and will be in the thick of it for the NFC Conference champs…Not easy to go against that BALT D on the road.

    DAL didn’t want to miss out on stepping on their Johnsons in the kicking game as their kicker missed a chance to tie the game at WASH…I’m still not sure what the hell that 5-yard penalty was on the center for moving the ball around was, but that 5-yards made the difference it looks like.

    LAR got their D going finally…Yeah, vs an SF team that is nowhere near playing with the big boys yet, and Aaron Donald tried to get the defensive player of the year award all sealed up in one game! LAR now has to get on the road for a number of games…We’ll see what their made of.

    KC was my ‘Liz Hurley Fantasy Survivor Pick Of The Week’ and they didn’t let me down as Mahomes is just awesome, even though the CINN D was pretty beat up. They have a lot of home games left, and will be a very tough out there. I also got a survivor pick and Roll-Survivor-Roll win out of them. They get a few defensive guys back towards the end of the season, and will be a dangerous team as long as they stay healthy.

    DEN beat the crap out of ARI that might be giving BUFF a run for toilet plunger team of the year. DEN will give some teams a fight, but not gonna make a run in the AFC.

    ATL and NYG was one of the uglier games of the season so far to watch. ATL offense didn’t look good most of the game, and their defense only looked good because they were playing NYG! Sorry CompassJoe! Nice clock mismanagement at the end of the game! Geeeez…

    More bye-weeks keep the options down, but there are a few to be picked to get you to Week 9!


    DEN @ KC…Really tough to pick against KC right now as that offense is a dragster! DEN will be a tougher defense for them to go against, but not sure how to stop the Chief’s bullet train. DEN doesn’t have the offense to keep up. Division game, but might be one to take a shot at.

    GB @ LAR…GB isn’t right, and LAR IS right…LAR will want to keep chugging towards the #1 seed, and this will be a another speed bump in that quest.

    NE @ BUFF…If you’ve been meaning to have a colonoscopy, or your wisdom teeth pulled, next Monday night is the time to do it. I think NE could let Peterman come over and QB for them, and they still win! I just can’t see any chance that BUFF has to win, including Gisele keeping Tommy home in bed because he has a fever. Many have taken NE probably, but go for it if you want.

    NYJ @ CHI…I don’t think this will be a letdown game for CHI after losing to NE, but I guess it’s possible. The CHI offense is getting it going…Not sure where their defense has gone, but I think NYJ on the road is gonna have enough to take Bears down in their den.

    CLEV @ PITT…Division game as we know, with CLEV getting the tie at home vs. a PITT team that wasn’t playing as well as they are now, and are coming off a bye. I will stay away, but CLEV will find a way to lose this game, that really can’t go to OT now, can it?! Naaaaaah…


    MIA @ HOU…I’m not totally sold on HOU right now, but IF Watson is healing up and can run, I’ll give them the nod over MIA on the road vs the 9th ranked D in the NFL.


    PHILLY @ JAX…NO PRESSURE on PHILLY! IFFF they lose to JAX, they might not be let back into PHILLY. The NFC East is wide open and a win keeps them in the hunt. JAX seems lost, but they’ll try to give the champs a game.

    WASH @ NYG…Only one-point favorites on the road. Division game, and NYG hung with an average ATL team and their so-called hot offense. No thanks.

    SEA @ DET…Hmmmm…DET has won the last 3-out-4 and is on the upswing…SEA has won 3-out-of-4 and is on the upswing…SEA has a run game…DET has a run game. SEA has a good defense…DET doesn’t have such a great defense. They rank 30th vs. the rush, and 24th in points given up. SEA run game is cranked up, and that can make the difference. SEA gets KJ Wright back at LB for the first time this season, along with a good blocking TE. They are coming off the bye for a 10am bodyclock game. I like SEA, but a tough pick to take in Survivor.

    TB @ CINN…Not sure if CINN gets some of their starters back on D, but they aren’t running on all cylinders right now. TB is a big question mark too. Flip a coin.

    BALT @ CAR…Might be a 10-7 game, but could be a good one. CAR has a little swagger off the PHILLY comeback, and BALT needs to get that shot at beating NO sewer taste out of their mouths.

    INDY @ OAK…OAK off the bye minus Beastmode. It’s a character check game for them, as INDY thinks they can actually beat people, but go to the blackhole. I just don’t know how OAK is mentally.

    SF @ ARI…I’d rather drink curdled milk with a side of liver.

    NO @ MINN…Revenge game for whatever it’s worth, and a possible preview of a playoff game to come.

    OK…That’s some crap to get the discussion started!

    I got through with 3-picks by some miracle, and like LAR, CHI & KC (Maybe HOU) right now for picks in my bowling money pool. Not sure about Roll-Survivor-Roll ML picks yet…Not many teams with good odds that I like, and most likely will be trying for teams that just get me through to Week 9.

    Throw your ideas out there, and let’s find some winners!!

  • #2
    I’m going with Houston.$328 to win $98 with my survivor roll over money

    First of all HF 0n TNF win SU at a ridiculous rate 90% when fav by more than 7: all win at about 75%

    2 ndly it’s Osweiler for Miami and if any team knows his weaknesses it’s Houston

    3rdly 2 of Miami’s 3 wide receivers Wilson and Stills are out. Lvg Amandola and out of favour Parker.
    added bonus Revenge Game for Lamar Miller vs Miami’s run D.

    With Watson hobbled by a partially collapsed lung, I expect little offence in this game with Houston maybe pitching a shut out. Say final score 23-6
    "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
    “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos


    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      Seems like a good play Barryt...I have HOU on the radar as a survivor pick, and might consider them as one of my two Roll-Survivor-Roll picks. Nothing with home teams that have low odds that I like, so it's about making a play this week, and moving on...I am not going to force a low ML number just for the sake of making more this week. I even thought about SEA as a ML pick! OK...I'll put down the vodka bottle.

  • #3
    Maybe Brady is sick, the lines only 13.5. I think Belichick could name the score here! -1000 on the ml
    very cool wet and windy in Buf on Monday. Total is 44

    first half ml is only -365...feels like good value rather than -1100 fultime
    Last edited by Barryt; 10-23-2018, 04:36 PM.
    "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
    “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos


    • #4

      This has teams with at least 1% in a pool represented in the grid...A few none 1% ones on there that got listed above OAK.

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      • #5
        Week 5 of my Survivor with a twist..ROLL-SURVIVOR-ROLL

        Last week KC easily, and TB by a miracle came through with my take two teams and bet them on the ML individually, and rollover the winnings, and see how far it can go. Survivoresque, but can take the same team twice!

        $100 Starting wager on each. Gonna try to take -200 or better teams when possible...BUT will go higher than -200 if I don't feel good about the -200 or lower teams.

        WEEK 1
        #1 NE -275 --- to win 36.36
        #2 DAL -140 --- to win 71.40

        WEEK 2
        #1 CAR -290 --- $136 to win $46.90
        #2 NO -280 --- $171 to win $61.07

        WEEK 3
        #1 SEA -145 --- $183 to win $126
        #2 NYJ -140 --- $232 to win $165

        WEEK 4
        #1 TB -195 --- $309 to win $158
        #2 KC -250 --- $397 to win $159

        WEEK 5
        #1 CHI -312 --- $468 to win $158
        #2 HOU -361 --- $557 to win $ 154
        I wasn't gonna force -200 or better lines, so we'll see if I can make it another week.


        • #6
          Rick - you mention staying away from Pittsburgh and I am wondering if you can elaborate a little please. I was leaning that way as they are at home and off a bye. As awesome as KC is I worry about the Denver D getting everything right(plus I like them vs AZ in two weeks if I am still around) and NE on the road seems more risky than Pitt at home. Rams and Bears aren’t viable choices imo.


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            Deano...I will stay away mainly because it's a division game and CLEVE gave them everything they could handle in the first game. Do I think PITT is the better team? Yes...BUT, I feel CLEVE is scrappy enough to make a game of it as this is practically a playoff game for them when they play these guys, and like I said, they probably find a way to lose it. PITT has the better offense, and CLEVE D isn't that great, and their offense, except for running the ball isn't that good either. It points to a PITT win as they seem to have found more of a grove in the last few games.

            I'm not trying to talk anyone off taking PITT, but I will look elsewhere to find three teams for my pool.

            GO WITH YOUR GUT!!!!! It's gotten you this far!

        • #7

          I was just going to put picks in for Week 8 in my gas money pool and see that somehow one of my picks got onto MIA last week!!! Fuck!!

          I never had MIA in as a pick or DET....I have no idea wtf happened. It's a 3rd party site. Runyourpool. I'm sure it wasn't a technical issue. I had TB in I thought. Crap!

          $10 buy-in...If this was Adam's pool I'd be choking myself out!

          Lesson learned I guess...Two picks left.

          Going on HOU and CHI.

          DOUBLE CHECK YOUR PICKS!!!!!!!!
          Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 10-26-2018, 02:40 PM.


          • #8
            Adam's Pool Summaries...

            'MISSED DEADLINE' got a pick in each pool...Guessing it's the same person that just threw away two shots at some big dough. I feel like total dumbass for not having the right team as one of my picks last week, BUT, at least I had a pick in!

            Someone took SF in Adam #1...WOW!
            ADAM 1 ADAM 2
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            • #9
              Not survivor but a similar subset. I’m going to fade GRbay on the ml for its next 4 road games. It’s a really tough schedule @ Rams, @NE ,@SEA @Minny.
              parlay 100 into approx$300
              "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
              “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos


              • Seahawk Rick
                Seahawk Rick commented
                Editing a comment
                They have MIA at home....That can be a win if nothing else IMHO...But those are tough road games. I'd see if their D improves as it goes along.
                Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 10-26-2018, 02:38 PM.

            • #10
              Bet against the best QB in the league (even on 1 leg) at your peril. The man is a savant. I give them a puncher's chance against LA off the bye. Their defense is bound to improve. Think the Pack can win 2 of the 4.


              • #11
                What are you doing on Survivor Rollover Davey? Splitting your pick into two?


                • #12
                  Funny you should ask...going with The Monsters of the Midway at -380. No stock split this week. Will roll $639 and hope it turns into $807. Trubisky and company gave the Brady Bunch all they could handle. Mack is still suffering with a wonky wheel but the Jets injury report is longer. Da Bears have a balanced attack and that young QB can really scramble and has a cannon arm. On the last ditch hail mary pass of some 50 yards he really couldn't step into it with a defender in his face. Imagine what he could do with an open lane? GL all. Hang on to your jock straps!


                  • Seahawk Rick
                    Seahawk Rick commented
                    Editing a comment
                    As you saw above, I am on them with you. HOU came through for me so hoping to finish the other pick off with a win!

                • #13
                  The Fantasy Survivor Liz Hurley Pick of the Week issssssssssssssssss...

                  CHI ...J-E-T-S are probably without two starting WR's and the guys Darnold will be throwing to haven't score a TD all season. They are down starting RB Powell and CB Johnson also most likely. Darnold has a league high 11-picks and CHI has 17 takeaways...NYJ has lost 9 of last 11 on the road. CHI offense isn't great, but if they play a clean game, they should take down the Big Apple crew.

                  I'm just pretending that I could buy back in after Week 3!

                  Week 1: BALT --- (W)
                  Week 2: SF --------(W)
                  Week 3: HOU------(L)
                  Week 4: LAC ------(W)
                  Week 5: CAR ------(W)
                  Week 6: ATL-------(W)
                  Week 7: KC --------(W)
                  Week 8: CHI

                  Shagadelic Baby!


                  • #14
                    Deano...I told you PITT was a slam dunk! Lol!

                    CLEV hung around for 3 quarters and then found several ways to lose it!


                    • #15
                      Week 9 thread up and running...