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The Limper NFL – 2018 – Week 8

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  • The Limper NFL – 2018 – Week 8

    As I’ve said before, ATS Wins and Losses are based on Vegas Insider’s closing lines. The week’s “final” MOV projections do not change; however, depending on line changes, the model can and does, occasionally flip the pick. Last Sunday is an example. For the DAL @ WSH game, the final MOV projection was Dallas by 1.2, and while the line was Pick’em, the model’s pick was obviously Dallas; however, the closing line was Dallas -1.5, which flipped the model’s pick to Washington – a win, thanks to the zebras. I use the closing line because I have to use something to grade the model’s performance, and VI’s closing lines are online and public. Although this past week the model benefitted from a pick flip, it has been the other way for most of the season thus far.

    Anyway, going 8-6 ATS this past week brings the model’s record from Week 5 (when the data was no longer poisoned by old numbers) to 46.5%, and I’m hoping Week 8 gets the Limper over the hump.

    GLTA

    PS. My super-duper Over/Under picks last week were a perfecto 5-0!!! This, however, is a case of ‘I’ve-been-to-this-movie-before’, where in the past a big flop always seems to happen. That said, I have run the OUs since Week 5 and the model has gone 13-2 thus far, so my fingers are crossed for a continuation.

    Week 8 OU picks will post either Thursday or Saturday.

  • #2
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    Last edited by WJCJR; 10-29-2018, 10:12 PM.

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    • #3
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      • #4
        Judging the accuracy of the model in predicting a game total means to determine the difference between the projected totals and the actual total scores of as many games that have been played; and, for the entire season thus far, the average delta for my model has been 9.4 points. That sounds like a lot; however, compared against the Vegas line – itself a projection - and this season’s games, it’s not that bad, as Vegas books have been 10.3 points off for the season. Moreover, the model’s delta is now down to 6.8 points as of Week 5, when only current data began to be used, while Vegas has been off by 9.7, which is not much of an improvement.

        Now, as I’ve said, ‘I’ve been to this movie before’. I’ve never had a statistical model for NFL game totals that was consistently accurate over the long haul; and, despite its good start, it’s only prudent to point out that game totals are far more difficult to project than game spreads, and the Limper hasn’t, thus far, been exactly lights-out against the spread. Nevertheless, I’ve been putting my shekels down on my totals projections since week 5 and I’ve turned my season around; so, until that delta starts to climb, I’ll keep posting O/U picks.

        Naturally, the posted deltas, lines and picks, are all based on the most current data available; so, beware of major player injuries, sudden blizzards, and wild line movements – because things can change, and they usually do.

        GLTA

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        • #5
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          • florabamaboy
            florabamaboy commented
            Editing a comment
            Thanks for doing this! Like you, I am also a member on LMM. Always wanted to see if the data sets for Limper and/or LMM would be helpful in determining total plays as well. After 7 full weeks of data the deltas should be pretty solid. Look forward to tracking these results and incorporating them into my handicapping, off to a great start!!!

        • #6
          Great stuff week in and out. I know how much time it takes to do this kind of thing and also have a "normal" life, lol. Thanks again for posting these each week. Good luck!

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          • #7
            Originally posted by gcotton View Post
            Great stuff week in and out. I know how much time it takes to do this kind of thing and also have a "normal" life, lol. Thanks again for posting these each week. Good luck!
            Heck – this IS my “normal” life! At least for the NFL season. If I wasn’t churning numbers I might be playing golf - RETCH!

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            • #8
              Hey...am I missing something here?

              You picked Den +9.5 and they lost by only 7, yet you graded the ATS as a loss?

              And you picked GB +9 and they lost by only 2, thanks to Gurley's rather questionable decision at the end of the game, and you graded that ATS as a loss also?

              I guess an argument could be made that the LAR/GB game SHOULD have been a push, but it wasn't...methinks you are grading your model rather harshly!

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              • #9
                Originally posted by Maytag View Post
                Hey...am I missing something here?

                You picked Den +9.5 and they lost by only 7, yet you graded the ATS as a loss?

                And you picked GB +9 and they lost by only 2, thanks to Gurley's rather questionable decision at the end of the game, and you graded that ATS as a loss also?

                I guess an argument could be made that the LAR/GB game SHOULD have been a push, but it wasn't...methinks you are grading your model rather harshly!
                The Win/Loss record I use is based on the final posted MOV and the closing lines according to Vegas Insider, and these two games flipped. Although the lines are shown incorrectly, the DEN @ KC closing line dropped to KC -9, and the MOV was KC by 9.4, which – in the end - made KC the pick. Similarly, the GB @ LAR closing line was LAR -7.5, hammered down by a tide of Packer bettors, which meant the pick flipped to the Rams as this was under the MOV of 8.4.

                The point of the model is not so much making picks, as it is coming up with the best MOV possible, and leaving the ultimate pick-making to the bettor. The Limper is a guide, not a prediction machine, and using the closing lines from VI is the best, public (ie. honest) way, of grading the model’s accuracy I could come up with.

                Because I’m an early-in-the-week bettor myself, I grabbed both GB +10 and Denver +10.5. Hope you did as well.

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                • #10
                  PS - I think Gurley's decision was downright Belichikian. Keeping the ball out of Rodger's hands - and his Hail Mary mystique - was the smart play.

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                  • #11
                    Originally posted by WJCJR View Post

                    The Win/Loss record I use is based on the final posted MOV and the closing lines according to Vegas Insider, and these two games flipped. Although the lines are shown incorrectly, the DEN @ KC closing line dropped to KC -9, and the MOV was KC by 9.4, which – in the end - made KC the pick. Similarly, the GB @ LAR closing line was LAR -7.5, hammered down by a tide of Packer bettors, which meant the pick flipped to the Rams as this was under the MOV of 8.4.

                    The point of the model is not so much making picks, as it is coming up with the best MOV possible, and leaving the ultimate pick-making to the bettor. The Limper is a guide, not a prediction machine, and using the closing lines from VI is the best, public (ie. honest) way, of grading the model’s accuracy I could come up with.

                    Because I’m an early-in-the-week bettor myself, I grabbed both GB +10 and Denver +10.5. Hope you did as well.
                    Ahhh...I think you have explained this before...several times. My mistake.

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