Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

WEEK 4 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • WEEK 4 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

    GET YOUR "KICKS" ON ROUTE '66!"


    Survivor God's can smile upon you and they can barf on you...They had a shit-eating grin watching over my two picks this past weekend and toyed with me to the point that I was ready to drink lighter fluid to end the tension... Two kicks seal the deal on two games I had every right to lose. BALT with injuries and Covid issues on their defense, along with two dropped TD passes, somehow found a way with the help of the refs missing the play clock going to zero to set up for a chip shot FG of 66-efffffffing yards. I wouldn't have bet Volo's money on that one going through the uprights...But it did. And Doinked on top of it all! Unefffffffffing unbelievable.

    Then, LV found many ways to not win the game in regulation even though MIA had 4th and 20 with little time on the clock, but get the 1st down and the tying FG. LV didn't want to win it in OT either, but somehow found a way to get into a position to win the damn thing with a FG.

    Lucky be a lady tonight....I should be out of both the big pools I'm in, but I'm not. Onto Cincinnati! That might be a hint of who I like this week...

    Everything pretty much went to plan last week and I warned of being on KC as LAC was on the edge of winning, and win they did on the road in KC....I liked TENN if Eason was going to QB but would have pulled my pick if I knew Wentz was going to start but those ankles weren't 100% and that cost INDY who is playing their way out of the playoffs in Sept....CAR is now without McCaffrey for a few games but got an expected win at HOU...ARI didn't breathe hard in their game at JAX...Fields for CHI must want to get his line from college in front of him have the sack-a-thon vs CLEV...BUFF did what BUFF will do to many this year and beat up on WFT's horrible D...NO is still playing well for the most part but hard to tell how good NE is...ATL/NYG should have been a tie as nobody deserved a W in that one...CINN beat up on a very injured PITT team and hard to gauge how big a win that really was...DEN had a practice game vs NYJ High School...LAR showed who is the king of the NFC right now showing Tommy boy the bright lights of Hollywood are shining on them, and not him this season...My Seachickens have maaaaaaajor issues and let what will be known as a good MINN team crush them in the 2nd half...Oh 49ers, you scored too fast and gave Aaron too much time, and showed how good that guy is...Da Boys are the beasts of the NFC East and might clinch the division by Thanksgiving!


    TINY TAKES...

    Decent number of games to pick from this week, but look at the Future Value (FV) of some of them as you might want to wait on a few...


    [email protected].Hard to think that HOU can find a way to win here...Not sure if Tyrod is playing, but BUFF will realllly have to take them lightly to lose this one. Lots of FV for BUFF

    [email protected]TENN D might not be great, but NYJ isn't great and keeps showing how much they suck. Not sure how they stop Henry and a pretty good offense. A decent amount of FV for them.

    [email protected]Except for NYJ in Week 8, this is the only place to take CINN IMHO...They've played well and the MINN win looks better in Week 1, but the CHI loss in Week 2 doesn't say much for them and PITT win was against the B-team Steelers. JAX really isn't good with the 29th ranked D and 23rd ranked O doesn't bode well for them. CINN O is ranked even lower, but will improve against these kitties without claws. Travel on a short week always tough for average to crap teams to overcome.

    [email protected].I took NO as my POW pick and like them at home for the first time all season as they'll be in front of the voo-doo crew and they should be rocking the house! Winston and Taysom and Kamara aren't producing great offensive stats but the D is coming to play each week and will be too much for Danny Two-Nickels to overcome in an emotional return for the Aints in the Super Dome. GB win looks good but CAR loss looks bad and who knows about the NE win and how that will rate down the road. NO has some FV left in the tank.

    [email protected]This will be a get-right game for KC as PHILLY hasn't shown any signs of being able to beat a team like KC. Not sure what Coach Andy's status is for the game but Patrick can call his own plays if need be and win this one! KC with a ton of FV left if you want to wait until they are home where PHILLY fans aren't throwing batteries at them!

    [email protected]GB beat up on a beat up 49ers team but still a good win on the road. Now they have another team that is probably more beat up as Ben the rapist isn't anywhere close to his old self...Just retire. GB with decent FV left.

    [email protected]The return of the favored son will be a big ratings night for NBC...Gotta think TB will forget all about the LAR loss as they'll want to win one for Tommy boy at his old house. Bill will know some ways to slow him down, but the talent level isn't close and an early lead will simmer down the Boston crazies! A ton of FV left for TB.

    [email protected].LAR 5-point favorites, which seems a little high for a division game against a good ARI team. I think LAR wins, but other games to be on other than this one. LAR with lots of LV left.

    Get some placeholders in if you haven't done so!!!!

    Write up your takes on games you like and give a reason if you can to help us all out...Also, post injury and Covid news of note too.


    ******One other thing about Adam's pool. I'm going to post that I vote for a Friday night deadline as not seeing injury and Covid news after practice that day can really screw you up. I invite all of you that agree with me to post on the thread I start or on your own. It needs to be in big numbers for him to change. I don't think he will, but I want to try. I badgered him for 5-years about it and ready to do it again!!!
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-28-2021, 07:47 PM.

  • #2
    Those whose pools allow it I expect TNF to be a very popular play of: Bengals (Jags). Great chance to advance with a team that realistically has NO FV after this game. But this game stinks to high HELL! Bengals off a big win over Stillers and have Green Bay up next and playing a AAA-team (mixing meta[hors). Should they win? YES! Will they win? Probably. But this game just "smells bad."

    So now we have to do what most pool entrants will do most of the season. How do these teams play:

    Houston: AT Buffalo
    Jags: As mentioned - TNF at Cincy
    Lions: AT Da Bears
    J-E-S-T JEST! JEST! JEST!: Tennessee

    Buffalo will be a VERY popular play. As they should. Bills - as expected - have a TON of FV. If I make it that far I have to pick TWO games Weeks 17 & 18 and in those weeks Bills host: Falcons and J-E-S-T JEST! JEST! JEST! so having Da Bills this late would be great and while Week 18 might not mean something odds are Week 17 will.

    Lions/Bears: Good luck picking that game. Put a gun to my head and I might even take the kneecap biters but no way I am risking my Survivor life with the Lions. On the road!

    Tennessee hosts Houston (Week 11) and Jags (Week 14) so having them here would be nice. If need be Week 18 they are at Houston and if they need that game having them would be nice.

    Tampa Bay has a LOT of FV but taking Brady at New England on SNF is appealing. But future games also look nice: Host Miami (5), Host Da Bears (7), NY Football Giants on MNF - we REALLY need Peyton/Eli here (11), AT J-E-S-T JEST! JEST! JEST (17) and if they really need the game they end the season hosting Carolina

    Rams host Arizona but Rams have a lot of FV and not sure I want Rams after the big Tampa win and at Seattle up next

    New Orleans does look appealing hosting NYG. But while NYG is winless they have fought to the end and I have a tough time asking Jameis Winston to do something good for 60 minutes. Or even 6.

    KC has a lot of FV but after 2 losses they travel to Philly to play the Iggles off a MNF road game against the hated Cowgirls

    RIGHT NOW..........................

    Leeeeeeeeeeeeeeean to Cincy - even though I know I should not. Perfect flat spot for them. I will see how pools go and if Bungals are #1 I will avoid them.

    Comment


    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      I hope there are more horseshoes in my ass to pull out as the last two Sundays have been a rollar coaster ride!

      I think I can get some on Amazon... Hope there aren't supply chain issues! 😁
      Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-27-2021, 12:33 PM.

    • mtheller
      mtheller commented
      Editing a comment
      Detroit is not a good team........but they aren't a bad team. They will knock people out of the eliminators this year on games where paper says they can't win.

    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      BALT was without 7-defensive starters so that helped DET a lot plus a BALT WR dropped two TD passes.

      I agree DET isn't horrible and will knock a few teams off as they have a good offensive line and Goff is good enough to help them get better.

      I was happy to be on the right side of history with that kick!

  • #3
    Makes the Saints pick even stronger.

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ltiple-sources

    Comment


    • #4
      The way I see it---if you had Balt in pool(which I did not, but I know someone who did,nod nod wink wink)
      You sure have the gods smiling on you- and a great chance to win it all this year!!
      Last edited by Compass rose; 09-27-2021, 06:57 AM.

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        If memory serves me correctly, that same lucky MFer had ARI last week and was the beneficiary of a missed kick at the buzzer...

        I mean that guy is blessed... Or, just an idiot! 😉
        Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-27-2021, 12:35 PM.

    • #5
      To all commenting on the Ravens win..................in 2010 I "tri-won" my pool.

      BUTTTTTTTTTT - in Week 1 I had Da Bears over Da Lions. That was the (in)famous Calvin Johnson TD so basically I shoulda been KOd in Week 1. Down the line I had Cleveland against Carolina. Browns up 1 in dying seconds and Panthers hit the upright 3/4 way up the pole on the potential GW FG. I had 3 other really lucky breaks. The way I see it I am still paying for it all these years later. Sorta like the Dodgers in 1988. For them to win it all Tommy had to pull rabbits out his ass (Ewwwwwww - at the thought of it) and it took 32 years to pay off that "bill."

      Hopefully I Don't have 20 more years to "pay off" the "bill" from 2010.

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Anyone that gets paid on these things has a few wins that should be losses as you have alluded to... I've had my near death experiences in the last two weeks and it's only week 4!

        I'll count my lucky stars and hope the Survivor God's are just fucking with me and have a gift for me come January!

    • #6
      In my 2 small pools still alive with 2 picks in each and taking Cinny and Buffalo.Our 2 picks in Adam,will wait for my partner and then for my pick
      out of NO,Cinny or Buffalo.He was the winner last year in Adam2.

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Care to share any reasons you like CINN & BUFF Volo?

      • Mrvolo
        Mrvolo commented
        Editing a comment
        Right now in pools looking to go against Jets,Houston,Giants or Jax and play against them when they are on the road.Also do not want to be on the most played and Division games.I like
        when a bad team has a short week and travels.Right now my #1 pick will be Cinny.
        In a pool for 1400$ I have 2 out of 47 picks and will Go Buffalo and Cinny and from previous weeks Buffalo will get more then 50%.If they win,OK but if they lose and Cinny wins I could be 1 out of 20.For a old timer I put more thought into this then it looks like.
        In the other,a buy back,there are 81 left and this pot will reach 4000$ and use the same logic.I do not look ahead just yet but if I am alive with 20% of starters I then map out a plan.I find things change drastically from say week 4 to week 9 or 10.
        Adams is a different story but lean to Cinny or NO right now.
        As a friend told me,he does not to know my thought process because it is like a merry go round.
        Hope this helps,no charge.

      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Thanks Volo!!!! Good stuff!

        I'm not a mapper either but am looking at a teams FV/Future value more so you get a decent team used before they get into a tougher part of their schedule.

        I agree in Division games and roadies but find myself taking a road team when the other team seems like they don't have horses.

        Injuries/Covid can make a big difference as BALT showed last week. Couldn't get off them in Adam's pool but did in million dollar pool.

        I'm not big in taking MNF teams with Covid around as you could lose key players on Sunday and too late to move to another team.

    • #7
      SURVIVORGRID.COM SUMMARY...

      DEN & TENN are top dogs...I kind of like DAL some with a CAR team not at full strength...

      *******That was supposed to be BUFF, NOT DEN!!! Too much Fireball.. .

      Click image for larger version  Name:	gridw4.JPG Views:	143 Size:	15.1 KB ID:	22277
      Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 10-04-2021, 04:55 AM.

      Comment


      • #8
        Click image for larger version

Name:	fvw4.JPG
Views:	163
Size:	148.9 KB
ID:	22279

        Comment


        • #9
          Rick, as you know, this is my first year in Adam's pool. I have wondered why he sets a Thursday deadline while all of the other pools I've ever been in have a Sunday 1pm deadline (unless taking a Thursday or Saturday game). Has he told you his reasons for doing this? I agree, it's an absolute handicap in the best of times but even worse during Covid---see Baltimore Week 3 as a prime example. I guess the only consolation is that it's the same for everyone so it's an even playing field in that regard. Having said all that, I just signed up for Adam2. Glutton for punishment, I guess!

          Comment


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            Agree... I'll get my post on the chat on his site this afternoon.

          • mtheller
            mtheller commented
            Editing a comment
            His reasoning is pretty simple. He does it so Friday morning, everyone already knows everyone's picks for the weekend. It gets a conversation going early in the weekend and people have something to talk about. It also does not handicap for people picking a Thursday Night game later in the season, i.e. few people left, a bunch of people lose on Thursday Night, then the people still "alive" can not change their Sunday strategy based on the outcome of Thursday Night.

          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            He's the only pool that does it I don't buy his reasoning but it's his pool. I beat on him for years to change. Simple for him until you get fucked by Friday injury/Covid news. Tell me how you feel Week 17 when you still have a pick left and 5-players go out on the Covid list for your team Friday before the game
            Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-30-2021, 10:34 PM.

        • #10
          Cincy

          Is who I went with........for now. Obviously I have less time to change that pick than normal but RIGHT NOW the Bungals are who I am going with

          Comment


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            Not many spots going forward to use them. Not sure how good they really are yet as I don't know how much weight to put on the MINN win.

            Injuries???

        • #11
          My partner is on Tennessee and I am taking Buffalo in Adam.Rather take them now then wait for week 17-18.

          Comment


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            BUFF has many games to take them still. Have them to use in Dec. Isn't a bad thing but maybe you're thinking they don't have much to play for Week 17/18.

          • Mrvolo
            Mrvolo commented
            Editing a comment
            In small pools,Buffalo and NO

          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            Way to stay off that biggest picked team on the board!!! LOL!

        • #12
          looking at Buff and GB--
          Will know more tomorrow. Because I do more research about this than LeBron about the covid shot--

          Comment


        • #13
          Going with CINN & NO in Adam's pool and CINN in million dollar pool.

          CINN has a decent defense allowing 18 ppg and JAX offense is pretty sucky and the defense is equally bad allowing 30 ppg. JAX just traded last year's No. 9 pick CB CJ Henderson...Should help Burrow.

          NO is back home for the first time and healthy with a NYG team rolling in that lost their LB and two WRs to injury last week. NO D playing well and Winston and Hill keeping the offense on the right track along with Kamara.

          CINN doesn't have much in the way of FV.

          Gotta take some shots with lesser teams as there aren't 18 good teams but you gotta make 18 picks.

          Hopefully I won't need the lucky horseshoe stuck in my booty... Don't want to wear it out!!
          Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-29-2021, 08:59 PM.

          Comment


          • #14
            Also had one of my 2 picks in Adam’s on Baltimore. Thought it was over on the 4th and 19 or whatever it was but we’ll take it! As many others are, I have Cincy and Buffalo locked in right now. Considering New Orleans as a possible swap.

            Comment


            • #15
              Thursday and extensive research completed just in time to pick NO-poor Gmen- and Buff cause,
              well, Houston.
              Figure One will will anyway--
              Luck on all your picks

              Comment


              • Seahawk Rick
                Seahawk Rick commented
                Editing a comment
                Does your 'extensive' research involve darts or a hat with pieces of paper?!

                Like the NO pick.... I'm a litt queasy about the CINN pick but feel they can win by a TD.... Stomach acid boiling will be a thing.

                I need to put new batteries in the lucky horseshoe!
                Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-30-2021, 09:36 AM.
            Working...
            X