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Ranking College Football Playoff Teams

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  • Ranking College Football Playoff Teams

    The committee will issue its initial rankings this week.
    My, not the committee's, rankings:

    1) Georgia
    2) Oklahoma
    3) Alabama
    4) Ohio State
    5) Michigan State
    6) Cincinnati
    7) Oregon
    8) Wake Forest
    9) Notre Dame
    10) Michigan

    The top 4 teams should probably win out through the regular season schedules. Oklahoma might possibly lose a game.There is not really any realistic debate about the top four teams right now, except for the possible order after Georgia.The question is where does the committee put Cincinnati. 5th, 6th or 7th? I am putting an undefeated B1G team ahead of an undefeated AAC team. I think that Michigan State will drop out of the top 10 when losing a game in the following weeks. Michigan State has a very difficult schedule left, at Purdue, Maryland (the easy game), at Ohio State, Penn State. I see 2 or 3 losses coming up. Wake Forest is through the easy part of its schedule and should lose 2 or even 3 games in the next 4 weeks.Notre Dame keeps plugging along and will be favored in all 4 game left. ND has 2 cupcakes at home, Navy and Georgia Tech. ND should be favored by about a field goal in it 2 road games, st Virginia and at Stanford.Oregon has 4 tough games on deck and should lose at least 1 game, which will sink its chance to make the playoffs.I think that Georgia knocks out Alabama in the SEC Championship game.

    This is how I hope the final four works out (2 & 3 could be reversed):
    1) Georgia
    2) Oklahoma
    3) Ohio State
    4) Cincinnati
    Last edited by TARB; 11-02-2021, 05:17 AM.

  • #2
    I say it will be close to this:
    Georgia Bama
    Oklahoma
    Cincinnati
    Oregon
    Ohio St
    Michigan St

    I think OKL will lose 2 of their final 3, probably both road games. The committee will have some explanation if they have OSU ahead of ORG this week. I am a Buckeye until the end, but head to head has to mean something.

    Comment


    • #3
      Predicting the committee's initial rankings:

      1) Georgia
      2/3) Michigan State
      2/3) Oklahoma
      4) Alabama
      5) Cincinnati
      6) Oregon
      7) Ohio State

      I will also predict that Michigan State, Oregon and possibly Oklahoma &/or Alabama will not make the final four to play for the championship. The two possible final scenarios that I see are:

      1) Georgia
      2) 1-loss Alabama or undefeated Oklahoma
      3) Ohio State
      4) Cincinnati

      If there are both a 1-loss Alabama and an undefeated Oklahoma, then I see Ohio State at #4.
      Last edited by TARB; 11-02-2021, 07:51 AM.

      Comment


      • mtheller
        mtheller commented
        Editing a comment
        TARB - a one loss Bama team also means there is a 1-loss UGA team, you think at that point UGA still is a 1 seed?

    • #4
      Some takeaways from the committee's initial rankings:
      The committee umphaticly said that they want the two best SEC teams to meet in the final game.
      Oklahoma at #8 is just ridiculous. An undefeated Big 12 team behind 1-loss Michigan, 1-loss Orego, 1-loss Ohio State, and undefeated AAC team Cincinnati is a crime. Ohio State is a great team that should probably make the final four, but should pay the price for that loss in the initial rankings. Putting Oklahoma eighth in the initial rankings says that the committee does not want Oklahoma to make the final four. Can a 13-0 Oklahoma even rise up to #4 in the final rankings? Maybe not.

      I think that the committee wants the final four to look like this:

      1) Georgia
      2) Alabama
      3) Ohio State
      4) Oregon or Cincinnati

      Comment


      • Buckeyefan80
        Buckeyefan80 commented
        Editing a comment
        How does that happen? If it plays out and Georgia plays Bama in the SEC Championship how does Georgia stay at 1 and Bama 2 regardless of result? There's a lot of games still to be played so we will see but if Bama loses and the rest win out they shouldn't be in the picture. If OSU or Oregon lose again they shouldn't be in either. All of that is dependent on what happens tho so we shall see.

    • #5
      1) Georgia
      2) Alabama
      3) Oregon
      4) Ohio State
      5) Michigan
      6) Oklahoma
      7) Cincinnati
      8) Notre Dame
      9) Oklahoma State


      I expect that Michigan will lose this week at Penn State and drop out of the competition.
      Last edited by TARB; 11-07-2021, 08:46 AM.

      Comment


      • #6
        Just as a point of reference, here are my power rankings for the top nine contenders for the college football championship:

        1) Georgia 102
        2) Alabama 95
        3) Ohio State 93
        4) Oklahoma 86.5
        5) Michigan 85.5
        6) Oregon 84.5
        7) Oklahoma State 84
        8) Cincinnati 82
        9) Notre Dame 80

        This is hoe I see it all working out in the end to get to the final rankings that determine the playoffs:

        1) Georgia
        2) Ohio State
        3) Oklahoma
        4) Cincinnati
        5) Notre Dame

        Alabama eliminated in the SEC championship game. Michigan eliminated by Penn State and / or Ohio State
        Oregon eliminated by Utah and / or Oregon State.Oklahoma State eliminated by Oklahoma. Notre Dame never catches up.
        Last edited by TARB; 11-07-2021, 09:39 AM.

        Comment


        • #7
          1) Georgia
          2) Alabama
          3) Oregon
          4) Ohio State
          5) Cincinnati
          6) Michigan
          7) Michigan State
          8) Notre Dame
          9) Oklahoma State

          I expect Ohio State to knock out Michigan State this week. Probably, Utah eliminates Oregon this week. Notre Dame will finish with an 11-1 record, but is unlikely to make the playoffs. However, if the number four spot comes down to Cincinnati and Notre Dame, I think the committee will opt for Notre Dame and screw Cincinnati because Notre Dame has the national profile that Cincinnati does not and more people would watch a ND / Georgia matchup than a Cincinnati / Georgia matchup. A 1-loss Big 12 champion (Oklahoma State) most likely noses out both Cincinnati and Notre Dame for the number four spot. I am still hoping that Georgia eliminates Alabama in the SEC championship game. This would be an outstanding final four:

          1) Georgia
          2) Ohio State
          3) Oklahoma State
          4) Cincinnati
          Last edited by TARB; 11-14-2021, 07:28 AM.

          Comment


          • #8
            My current power ratings four the top nine competitors:

            Georgia 103
            Alabama 95
            Ohio State 93
            Michigan 88.5
            Oklahoma State 87
            Notre Dame 84
            Oregon 83
            Cincinnati 82.5
            Michigan State 80

            Since Ohio State has to play at Michigan in the last regular season game, that game will determine which team plays Wisconsin in the B1G championship game and which team is eliminated from the competition. My power ratings have it a pick-em game. Assuming that Michigan beats Ohio State and Wisconsin beats Michigan, then no B1G team makes the playoffs. If Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon and Oklahoma State all have two losses, then a 2-loss Alabama probably makes the playoffs. That would be a travesty.
            Last edited by TARB; 11-14-2021, 07:58 AM.

            Comment


            • #9
              I took a shot on Oklahoma State at 100/1 odds. $50 pays back $5,050. This is a saver wager, as I already have Georgia at 10/1 odds that returns $4,950.
              I am hoping that they meet in the final game.

              Comment


              • #10
                1) Georgia
                2) Ohio State
                3) Alabama
                4) Cincinnati
                5) Michigan
                6) Notre Dame
                7) Oklahoma State

                The Ohio State / Michigan game will undoubtedly eliminate the loser. Michigan is a live dog this year and could actually upset Ohio State if the team plays well and maybe wins the turnover battle. I, for one, expect Ohio State to take care of business and beat Michigan again again this year. I make Ohio State a 7-point favorite. If Stroud has another outstanding game, he should nudge out Alabama's QB for the Heisman trophy.

                Notre Dame's schedule is over with an 11-1 record. That being said, it is very unlikely for ND to make the final four. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma and then wins t he Big 12 championship game, then the Cowboys will probably make the playoffs. They are coming off four straight blowout wins.

                I think that this could be the final four:

                1) Georgia
                2) Ohio State
                3) Oklahoma State
                4) Cincinnati
                Last edited by TARB; 11-21-2021, 09:00 AM.

                Comment


                • #11
                  Really appreciate this analysis as the season winds down. Your projected final 4 would indeed be outstanding as enough of the old guard. You are 1 of the few that has okie state on your radar. I am not a fan of Coach Gundy but he has his team dialed in. They don't beat themselves, and will be a tough out going forward. I am rooting for michigan next week but the buckeyes sure are finishing w/a flourish. Nice bearcats win yesterday, and I sure hope you are correct in your assessment of them finishing in the top 4. They also are a well coached team that deserves a shot. Still much to be decided, look forward to the next few weeks. Go Blue!

                  Comment


                  • #12
                    What are the chances of the various teams to actually win the championship? Based on the odds at Westgate, here are my approximate chances to win the championship:

                    Georgia 51%
                    Ohio State 20.5%
                    Alabama 20.5%
                    field (any other team) 8%

                    Of course, there is a very large big in futures bets. For example, Westgate is paying off bets on the teams as if they had the following chances of winning:

                    Georgia 61.5%
                    Ohio State 25%
                    Alabama 25%
                    field 9.5%
                    Last edited by TARB; 11-22-2021, 04:05 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #13
                      The field breaks down as follows:

                      Michigan 2.1% (pay off at 2.5%)
                      Cincinnati 1.7% (2%)
                      Oklahoma State 1,7% (2%)
                      Notre Dame 1.7% (2%)
                      Oklahoma 0.85% (1%)
                      Last edited by TARB; 11-22-2021, 04:42 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #14
                        Do we think the top 4 tonight will be Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State and Cincy?

                        Comment


                        • #15
                          Yes, in this order: Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama, Cincinnati.

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