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  • Getting ready for Breeders Cup 2021

    Haven’t got 2021 pps yet ( got free 2020 by mistake😎). However hers some early thoughts for Friday’s 2 yrolds by veteran turf writer Ed McNamara
    Dissecting Friday’s races

    Juvenile Turf Sprint (5 furlongs)


    Averly Jane at the Skidmore Stakes – Photo Courtesy of Chelsea Durand

    The newest Cup race began in 2018, and all three winners led wire to wire. That’s a tiny sample size, but if you’re thinking about betting a closer, maybe you should think again. I had trouble getting beyond the main speeds, 5-2 morning line favorite Averly Jane and 4-1 second choice One Timer. Grass sprint guru Wesley Ward trains undefeated Averly Jane, a filly who will try to give him his third straight Juvenile Turf Sprint victory.
    Juvenile Fillies (1 1/16 miles)


    Echo Zulu, trainer Steve Asmussen’s 4-5 favorite, is flashy, very fast and 3-for-3 with by a total of 16 3/4 lengths. A potential hole is the absence of a two-turn race. Recent history says that may not be a problem. Three of the last four Juvenile Fillies winners hadn’t gone two turns, and of the past 11, only five had. So, if you really like Echo Zulu and don’t mind a short price, maybe you shouldn’t be too concerned. However, her main rivals — Juju’s Map (5-2) and Hidden Connection (5-2) — are stakes winners at 1 1/16 miles. Nothing is ever simple, especially among 2-year-old fillies.
    Juvenile Fillies Turf (mile)


    Route experience has been a necessity, because all 13 winners had gone at least a mile on the grass. Chad Brown’s Maram took the race’s 2008 debut, and America’s turf king added four victories. American-based horses have won it the past seven years, and only two Euros — Flotilla (2012) and Chriselliam (2013) — earned the trophy.

    Pizza Bianca is the lukewarm 5-1 favorite in a wide-open race with a lot of early speed. I’m leaning toward course-and-distance winner Cairo Memories (post 2, 12-1), and Consumer Spending (8-1) and Turnerloose (12-1) also catch my eye. A $100-plus exacta would be no surprise.
    Juvenile (1 1/16 miles)


    Corniche – Photo Courtesy of Benoit Photo

    Eight of the past 11 Juvenile champions had won around two turns, including seven of the last eight. Two who hadn’t — Uncle Mo (2010) and Shanghai Bobby — were undefeated and coming from a key prep, the Champagne Stakes, a one-turn mile at Belmont Park. Good Magic is the outlier, breaking his maiden in the 2017 Juvenile after running second in the Champagne.

    Like Echo Zulu in the Juvenile Fillies, 6-5 favorite Jack Christopher (post 1) is unbeaten, untested and without two-turn experience. Like Good Magic, he’s trained by Brown and ran in the Champagne. He’s 2-for-2 by 11 1/2 lengths, and it would be no shock if he dominated.
    Brown rarely talks up his horses, but he’s very high on Jack Christopher. “From day one he’s showed amazing ability,” Brown told TVG. “He’s done everything right. I’m really excited about this horse.”


    Jack Christopher’s main challenger could be the 2-for-2 Corniche (5-2, post 12), a front-running winner of Santa Anita’s 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah. He could give Bob Baffert his fifth Juvenile victory. Neither colt drew well, so bad-trip chaos could occur.
    Juvenile Turf (1 1/16 miles)


    Euros have an 8-6 edge in 14 runnings. Although the past five winners had won going at least a mile, overall, only eight had gone that far. From 2012-15 George Vancouver, Outstrip, Hootenanny and Hit It a Bomb got there first, and none had run more than 7 furlongs. The conclusion: Don’t eliminate a possible contender based on where he’s from or whether he’s been tested at a mile or beyond. Sprinters stretching out can succeed here.

    The tepid favorite is England’s Dubawi Legend (4-1), who’s stuck on the far outside in post 14. I prefer England’s Albahr (6-1, post 2), coming off an impressive win in Woodbine’s Grade 1 Summer Stakes at a mile. Trainer Charlie Appleby has had a tremendous year for international superpower Godolphin, sweeping the Epsom Derby and the King George and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes with Adayar and the Irish Derby and the English St. Leger with Hurricane Lane. He’s also won major stakes in America with Althiqa and Yibir.

    Appleby’s first Grade 1 win came in the 2013 Juvenile Turf with Outstrip. He’ll also send out Modern Games (5-1, post 1), who like Outstrip never has been past 7 furlongs.
    "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
    “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

  • #2
    If anyone has the PP's for both days and doesn't mind sharing, I would be willing to accept them . My email is [email protected] Much appreciated! Now let's win some cash!

    Comment


    • gcotton
      gcotton commented
      Editing a comment
      Thanks Redeye!!

    • Barryt
      Barryt commented
      Editing a comment
      Hope that is Braves fan not Hawkes or Falcons

    • gcotton
      gcotton commented
      Editing a comment
      Barry....Braves and Falcons, lol....don't watch the NBA, haha....and the funny fact is that I have only been to Atlanta maybe 10 times in my life

  • #3
    Thanks Barry! I'm pretty partial to the Larry Rivelli trained filly in the Sprint on Friday. While my nephew isn't riding her in this race, he has worked her and exercised her several times this Summer at Arlington. Larry is a great guy and really hope he can get the win.

    Comment


    • #4
      Barry, did you get them. Can send brisnets if you like

      Comment


      • Barryt
        Barryt commented
        Editing a comment
        Paid for them only $6. Tx for the thought tho&gl

    • #5
      Here is a topic to kick around.A old angle was Euros on turf getting (L) for first time.This kicked out many winners over the years.Now we have no (L) for Breeders Cup so we have to look at American horses running without it for the first time.I think it is worth considering.Anyhow GL and bombs
      away.By looking at it I mean maybe Euros still the play.

      Comment


      • #6
        Great post and good read from Ed!

        I am really high on Kimari in the turf sprint……

        Comment


        • #7
          Here a good guide from Isr Bet
          You can download it from here
          https://news.1st.com/blog/breeders-c...dium=paid_refe rral&utm_campaign=1st_bet_breederscup_standard _desktopmobile_superbillboard_superbillboardros&am p;utm_content=1st_bet_breederscup_standard_desktop mobile_superbillboard_superbillboardros_equibase_2 048x480_1024x512
          "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
          “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

          Comment


          • #8
            Breeders Cup Day 1

            Didn’t realize there’s no dirt sprint for 2yrods

            Here’s early analysis comments are welcome

            Dmr R6 turf 5F.

            The track profile makes it hard for horses post 8 and out to win(0.28IV) compared to posts 123 (1.68) . You can watch R4 which is also 5f T.

            Ward has uncoupled from post 2 , 6 and 8 and #8 is ml Fav. My instincts say bet the 2. It’s 12-1. If it comes 2-8 2-6 or 2-1, I’ll be a winner overall for the BC.

            Ward took the 2&4 to England but the 8 stayed home., but boxing 268 is not the worst bet.

            Cottons #9 looks good but the 9 post and E type is going to get caught wide I think.

            R7 1 1/16

            Hard to bet against #6 Echo Zulu as #5 seemed to be Cox’s B team racing at Elp.

            A repeat of Spinaway 6-4 is likely. #1, along with #6, has a WO at DMR. WORTH a shot: 6-1 exa and 6-4-1 tri

            R8 1m T

            Pressers and closers have the edge and favourites win a lot, 43%, but#1 is ml Fav at 5-1. Euros don’t look strong.

            watch R 2 also 1 mile on turf for clues. IN RACE2 early speed held, fin143 with1 @30-1 getting thru on inside. Fav #8 was way back early and didn’t do much.

            Tough race Cox 4&5 and Brown 7 & 11 have two each.

            Browns look better.

            None of these have won a G1 route, #1 was 2nd at WO. The 8 &14 have won G2 routes and 6&12 a G2 sprint. So picking between these 4 gives me 1&14 but it’s hard to judge the Euros.

            Kinda wide open I’ll be using 1,7,11,14 + best Euro in pics.

            Got the Pic3 6-6-1 paid $61 for my $7. 20 investment.



            R9 1 1/16m
            With scr of#1 12 looks much the best I have pic 3 going 6-1-12 pays 27 for 2.40 investment.
            Baffert has three 8,9, 12. Pletcher two The #12s race in the AP was outstanding . Mike Smith chooses this one( no kidding) but must still overcome post 12 with a relatively short run to the turn. It’s 21&3 1q time is fastest of all so it could get the lead by the turn or at worst be 3rd and tucked in . Hard to bet against. But boxing the 3 Bafferts is a consideration.

            #1 gave up 2 lengths in stretch at a mile.

            #2 from Japan won at 11/8 as FTS . It’s a complete unknown but certainly a threat, wish they had a high profile NA jock. Then 154 is not really fast for 11/8 but it was an about distance so coulda been longer.




            R10 1m T

            #2 is only G1 winner and comes off a splendid LF . Hard to argue .

            #1 is entry mate and certainly in the mix. Don’t like to take those pp 10-14 s though on form the 10 and 14 are contenders. I Will probably have a better idea on the Euros after R 8..but again #2 @ 6-1 is a good bet &12 box exa.
            Last edited by Barryt; 11-05-2021, 05:31 PM.
            "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
            “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos

            Comment


            • Barryt
              Barryt commented
              Editing a comment
              R6 Looked at replays of #8 s races. This horse has tremendous gate speed and should clear this field to the rail well before the turn. It pulled away in the stretch. #2 was badly beaten last time , so leaning more to #8 than# 2
              Juvenile Turf Sprint has been won wire-to-wire in all 3 of its renewals from posts 5, 9 and 13., so historicallly post 8 shouldn’t be the handicap it seems from the Dmr5f profile.
              Last edited by Barryt; 11-05-2021, 09:51 AM.

            • Barryt
              Barryt commented
              Editing a comment
              UNCOUPLE BOB BAFFERT WON AND 4-11 paid $18 so I’m ahead for the day
              Race 2 was right as kind as #3 had near perfect trip and had no stretch push at all.

              Bonus pick DAM #8 is now scratched. I’ll put the early scratches here
              R1 6F
              There are 8 FR, 2 pressers and 1 closer. The track profile is pretty neutral except closers have a tougher time. The presser I like is #8. If you throw out it’s Turf races and it’s route it’s record is 9- -3-2-1. It was 4.80 adgainst Fratelli and in that race Fratelli had unpressured lead. Today it’s 20-1 ml. The fly in the ointment is Baffert with 2,4 & 11 which are LR 3 yrolds that could improve immensely and destroy the field despite running styles.
              So #8 WP 411/8 exa and 4.11 box exa 611/611/8 tri
              Last edited by Barryt; 11-05-2021, 01:42 PM.

            • Barryt
              Barryt commented
              Editing a comment
              Early scratches
              Race 1
              Pool Changes: NO PICK 5 WAGERING
              PGM # RUNNER CHANGE
              7 Run Snappy Scratched
              8 El Diablo Rojo Scratched
              Race 3
              PGM # RUNNER CHANGE
              5 At the Spa Scratched
              8 Rose Maddox Scratched
              Race 4
              PGM # RUNNER CHANGE
              6 Thunder Love (GB) Scratched
              Race 5
              Carryover: Pick 6: $66,306.64
              PGM # RUNNER CHANGE
              9 Groovy Huey Scratched
              Race 6
              PGM # RUNNER CHANGE
              13 Thunder Love (GB) Scratched
              14 Sumter Scratched
              Race 9
              PGM # RUNNER CHANGE
              1 Jack Christopher Scratched
              Race 10
              PGM # RUNNER CHANGE
              15 Ready to Purrform Scratched
              16 Detroit City Scratched

          • #9
            My plays will revolve around:
            6th - #7 Armor
            7th - TRI 6/2/all
            8th - #3 Cachet (12-1 ml) Biggest bet of day
            9th - #10 Command performance
            10th - #2 Albahr

            GLA

            Comment


            • #10
              Hey guys i barely post except for when i have questions about Vegas. Recently asked about Rampart, Gcotton i am the one that emailed the forms and drf guide. My real name is Joe, long story about the Lyle thing. Since I cannot sleep in Solana Beach right now, I would like to share something as modestly as possible. Been a long, long follower of Dave's and love this space even though I miss Chu and TP......but check this out from one of your own.....
              https://www.dmtc.com/media/news/five...s-in-last-1961

              I played a $600 straight exacta 7-8 in last race and am now in BCBC tomorrow!!!! Finished 4th.

              Comment


              • gcotton
                gcotton commented
                Editing a comment
                Thanks for the DRF pages Joe! After you sent them, that is why I posted the thread about DRF vs Brisnet, lol.....Taketheredeye graciously sent the Brisnet ones my way as well. I printed both off to compare, but as I stated, kind of lean DRF. Best of luck this weekend!

                P.S. It's ok to be a "lurker" on here, but also don't hesitate to post on here either. A bunch of GREAT handicappers in all sports on here.

              • gcotton
                gcotton commented
                Editing a comment
                Congrats on the 4th place finish in the contest and best of luck this weekend in the BIG contest! Keep us posted on how you are doing in it. And don't hesitate to email either, as I will if I see something at one of my Midwest tracks.

              • Taketheredeye
                Taketheredeye commented
                Editing a comment
                Way to go, best of luck!!

            • #11
              Del Mar Friday

              1st race exacta's 2-4-7 with 1-2-4-7-10
              also # 2 W&P

              2nd race #4 W&P

              Comment


              • #12
                Friday 2nd Race $5 EX Box 3-4-6-8
                $3 Tri Box 3-4-6-8

                Good luck!

                Comment


                • #13
                  Barryt close on the 6th. I loved the 3 ended up with Trifecta so nice start. Good luck tonight and tomorrow

                  Comment


                  • #14
                    Does anybody like Art Collector at 9/1 odds in the Classic on Saturday?

                    Comment


                    • #15
                      Nothing today guys except for the free beers in the contest area. big goose egg. Still have more than half of the bankroll. Hope tomorrow goes better.

                      Comment

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