Week 17 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

[Seahawk Rick]

TEXANS ROPED SOME LIGHTNING...

The Chargers with playoffs in their sites, forgot they had to actually play hard to beat Houston. I didn't watch the game play-for-play, but outplayed they did vs the Bolts...Hard to not have wanted to be on them in Survivor pools as LAC lost a game they could have won the week before vs KC if they kicked a few FG's instead of going for every 4th down they had it seems...I had them on my map from back in November, then at the 11th hour thought I'd get off the big favorite as I had some other decent teams to pick from. Luck be a lady...

SEA knocked some people out too as they miss an FG that should have put away the pesky Bears, but the mighty Nick Foles brings them back for a TD and one of the best catches of the year for the 2-point conversion and the win. ATL almost spit the bit with DET having a chance to win late, but pick time for Mr. Boyle.

VFVers Sirjohndaly survives in Adam 2 and they must be down for another chop after the $5K you took off the table going into W16. 3-left. Adam 1 is now down to 6 and gotta think there is a big chop of some sort or maybe divide it all and have a Happy New Years'!

The million dollar pool took a hit with the LAC loss with 61 on them plus SEA with 11. I luckily avoided the bomb and move on with PHILLY and KC winning for me. Down to 20. The good thing is that number got below 25, which was the threshold for picking one or two teams. We pick one this week and I'll most likely be on NE...Yeah, I know, the biggest favorite on the board, but I'm the only one that has them to use. IF the pool goes under 10 this week, one pick again next week for those that move on, or double picks if it's 10+. As always, King Covid rules and need to wait as long as possible to make a pick as we saw with Huntley for BALT get the Covid boot on Saturday. Damn...

Not sure who is left besides Sirjohn, but make yourself known! I know Volo is still alive in a pool and down to single-digits!

Staying off the big favorite again is a decent way to go as long as you have a team you are comfortable with.

Two more weeks...Seems like a year!

GOOD LUCK!!!!!


TINY TAKES

[email protected]Love INDY. Too much for LV to beat IMHO. INDY will be focused as the playoff race is getting hot now and they are on a roll.

[email protected]Lot's of injuries and Covid for TB. Worth see how the Wednesday injury report looks if your deadline is Thursday. Hard to think that NYJ will win, but it's their Super Bowl!

[email protected]BUFF is finding their stride and ATL is gonna see the bad end of their improvement and be lucky to keep it within 20.

[email protected]Let's see who is the QB for NO...If Hill can go, I like the Aint's at home with the tough D that won't have to be on the field as long as they were vs MIA Monday night.

[email protected]I don't know how JAX can win on the road vs an NE team that just got whacked and will be roaring to go vs a team that couldn't beat the JETS and is on the road for the 2nd week in-a-row...

[email protected]Hard to believe HOU can find lightning in a bottle two weeks in-a-row. Jimmy G has some injury issues that might play into it so check on the injury report if you are thinking about them. SF has to bounce back to stay in the WC race and HOU has their attention after the LAC win.

[email protected]Can DET find a way to grab a win on the road for the 2nd week in-a-row? Goff back will help if he plays. Weather will be iffy but not the snow we had here last Sunday. Hard to trust SEA right now, but every time I think they are sucking, they win!

[email protected]GB rolling but not blowing people out, but W's have no pictures next to them. MINN is decent, and needs to bring it to beat GB on their home turf. I think it will be a close game. I'm rooting hard for MINN as that might get TB to play for a win W18 if they have a shot somehow at the #1 seed. I have TB and BUFF left to use in my pool, that's why I bring it up.

Comb the injury and and Covid lists as much as possible, and have a 'B' tema ready to go if you get some late news that might really hurt your #1 pick.

Just Win/Chop baby!!

******Correction...3 people have NE to use this week in million dollar pool.

[Seahawk Rick]

Any of you that think outside the box on the hedging front, weigh in with your thoughts as that's not a strong suit of mine. The scenario is I'm likely on NE this week as a single pick and a huge ML number. If I'm lucky enough to get to W18, it could be double-picks with at least one of my teams being a big favorite with BUFF, possibly both if TB has something to play for. It just might not pencil out...Maybe hedge in W18 if I make it that far.

[mtheller]

Assuming you go NE this week (which is obviously a solid pick), Jax ML is 7:1 right now. A $500 ML bet on Jax returns $4000. Obviously, IF Jax were to upset NE, you would be up $3500 less your entry fees for the season (not a bad thing). The problem wouldn't be until week 18 and the possibility of having to make double picks. You would need to bet 2 MLs since either game could potentially knock you out. Assuming you make it to 18, you would then need to significantly increase your outlay to cover entry fees and the loss of $500 on the Jags in W17, then cover your bets in W18.

Best case scenario right now is the pool is down to 20. Hopefully you guys can come to an agreement to take at least $10k each and play on for the rest.

[Seahawk Rick]

Yes mtheller...Doing a hedge is the prudent thing to do. I'll figure out something by Sunday. Thanks for playing out some scenarios. Not gonna worry about W18 until I can make it through W17!

[Mrvolo]

First hats off to our leader Rick and his gutsy call Sunday.In a perfect world,NE wins and all the other big favorites go down.GL
Now on to my small under 1000$ losers pool.It is a hand run and goes thru SB and is a repeat.If it gets down to a few will let you know.

[Seahawk Rick]

Thanks Volo...A gutsy call would have been going on ATL!!

[Hoya1984]

Still alive in 2 of the 3 I entered (knocked out in Circa). My dilemma this week. Have SF available in both and was planning on using in both but with Jimmy G news debating only using one. Do not have the obvious picks like NE or Buffalo. If I do not use 2 SF my options include Seattle or Chicago or LAC. Also have one TB available but was hoping to save that for next week as I do not have great choices next week. Best might be Minnesota over Chicago but if Minnesota loses this week are they out of potential 7 seed so meaningless game. Given I think I should save TB am debating Chicago for one SF for one but do not love my fate in Nagys hands. That said NYG offense is so bad it is worth considering. Obviously SF line will be double digits even if Lane QB so better hedging options and middle opportunities.

[Aztec10]

I wonder if tampa really will fight fir the 2 seed? They are pretty banged up going into the game sunday. I expect they can beat the jets with 1 arm tied behind brady's back, but thought the same chargers v texans last week. At what point does it make sense to retreat and live to fight another day. We'll see.....

[Seahawk Rick]

Arian's said in the last week he'd play to win if seeding could improve. He did sitting people can cause a dropoff.
Maybe he's blowing smoke.They own tiebreaker with DAL and maybe have a shot to move up

A small part me thinks picking TB this week and having NE to use W18 if there's double picks and I'm alive. They play at Mia. Have BUFF to use W18 if I make it that far.

[Seahawk Rick]

Haven't focused on SF beyond the blurb I heard about Jimmy G. See how he practices.

SEA was playing hard vs CHI and guessing they will again. It would be a pick em if played in Detroit.

CHI could be the under the radar pick. Foles again? Seems like the win will give them some energy.

I'm afraid of TB not having something to play for in W18... What's your take on it Hoya? I think they play hard this week but banged up. Jets are not showing signs of life but will give it their all vs Tommy.

DEN beat LAC a month ago... LAC has been quirky to say the least, but the HOU game would be a wake up call you'd think.

MINN worries me too that they might not have something to play for.

Let's keep kicking it around.

[Aztec10]

Tough to throw a ball with a fractured thumb on your throwing hand

[Seahawk Rick]

Just read it's his thumb. He won't play IMHO. Only one person had them to use in my pool.

[Aztec10]

No Wentz for the colts, no Jimmy G for the 49ers. Knowing how the nfl likes to play favorites wonder if any games will be pushed back this week. The one absolute from where I sit is the vaccination % that the shield has touted doesn't seem to be realistic as majority of the players put on the covid list are out 10 days. That indicates not vaccinated....... Good luck survivors, especially with that thursday pick deadline in adam's pools.

[Seahawk Rick]

Wentz is 10-days as he's not vaxxed... Can't push game. Nobody had him in my pool to use.

[Seahawk Rick]

With new rule enacted Tuesday, maybe Wentz plays.

[Compass rose]

Add that TB may " rest" Brady

[Seahawk Rick]

That will blow hard. Arian's said if they had something to play for as far as seeding, they'd play to win.

If I make it to W18, and need double picks, would love to use TB... Blaine Gabbert could probably beat the Jets though!

Need to get through Week17 first for any of it to matter.

Foles and Herbert taking Sunday off would help!

[Seahawk Rick]

SURVIVORGRID.COM

I usually post all the teams that have at least a 1% average. This week the list is longer than usual. People have used up many of the good teams since Week 1 and now have to dig a little deeper. WTF? Who thought CHI would be a team you'd be picking in Week 17? Even after the giant egg laying, NO gets some love...Hill back will make them attractive. Watch out SEA, DET might want to pluck some of those feathers of yours!

I'll be on the top dog this week...Don't want to be, but need to be.

[Seahawk Rick]

Sirjohndaly...Let us know if you chop some more...

I gotta think Adam 1 does some sort of chop.

[Seahawk Rick]

W17

Lucky to be alive, but alive I am. Have NE to use this week along with two other people. We just need one team this week. SEA/CHI/NO/NYG are what most remaining players have left to use this week. A few with LAC. 13 have TENN, but I feel they will save them for W18.

IF I'm fortunate enough to make it through W17, I'll have BUFF to use, but if we need double picks, it gets more interesting. Have TB, but they might not have anything to play for along with MINN. If the pool gets down to 10 or less, the remaining players only need one pick. We'll see...Gotta get through this week first.



Teams left to use in pool...

[Aztec10]

Don't overthink it. Pats need to right the ship! They make short work of young trevor and the jags sunday!

[Seahawk Rick]

No overthinking. A Patriot I will be... Unless King Covid rains down upon them the next few days.

Lord Billy will make them win.

May upsets reign supreme onto the others...

[Seahawk Rick]

We'll... After saying I wasn't going to overthink it in the post above to Aztec, I now am going to think a little more as I have to still plan for week 18 and the possibility of double picks, and who I have to choose from if I make it that far. If it's just one pick needed, then it's an easier decision as I have BUFF.

For W18 double pick scenario, a thought now is to take New England this week and have Buffalo to use in week 18. Who is 2nd team?

Tampa Bay, who might not have anything to play for?
NO on the road at ATL?
WFT on the road at the Giants?
MINN who will have nothing to play for most likely at home against CHI as Cousins out vs GB and a likely loss.
LAC on road at LV.

My possible twist is to take TB this week vs the JETS in a game that they will play hard for I feel, and then have NE as an option in week 18 at MIA. I am not a huge believer in MIA with this win streak as they have not played good teams for the most part. They did beat Baltimore on a Thursday night game, which tends to favor the home team and maybe Baltimore was caught off guard.

With TB being an iffy W18 pick, NO/WFT are the options with LAC available. I could add NE to the list if I take TB this week. Just trying to add a team that would have something to play for into the W18 mix.

Hmmmmmmmm...

[Sirjohndaly]

So I have San Fran but terrified of trey lance. Green Bay is interesting now that cousins is out with covid. I was eyeing them for week 18 too but no guarantee packers will have any reason to play starters. Could lock up the 1 seed tomorrow. They did extend deadline to Saturday for Adams leagues

[Seahawk Rick]

Yes, Green Bay becomes an iffy pick like my Tampa Bay pick in week 18 if I make it that far.

Cousins out hurts MINN. Cooke is back.

Any more if a chop of the money?

[Seahawk Rick]

I have Minnesota to use also in week 18 if I make it that far, but with them likely to lose to Green Bay, that will leave them nothing to play for.

[Aztec10]

Best laid plans can blow up in a heartbeat with a few positive rona trst results. Survivir 2021 will be remembered for having to live in the moment. Planning ahead is a bumpy road. Good luck to all and happy new year.

[Seahawk Rick]

Pretty sure I have decided to stay on New England this week...

[Aztec10]

You're a funny man seahawk. Ruminating out loud that mind firing off a gazillion synapses. Pricess has brought you to this point. Good luck, keep it moving forward

[Seahawk Rick]

Just trying to cover my bases!!! 😁

[Seahawk Rick]

LIZ HURLEY FANTASY SURVIVOR PICK....

Four in-a-row for my Lizzy!! I asked her for a New Year's kiss for all the wins I'm getting her...She handed me a 9-volt battery, and said 'Lick this!' Damn...

W1: SF (W)
W2: DEN (W)
W3: NYG (L)
W4: NO (L)
W5: TENN (W)
W6: INDY (W)
W7: CAR (L)
W8: SEA (W)
W9: BALT (W)
W10: TB (L)
W11: CLEV (W)
W12: HOU (L)
W13: LAR (W)
W14: LAC (W)
W15: PHILLY (W)
W16: KC (W)
W17: NE

Happy New Year indeed....Oh myyyyyyy....