2020-21 NFL P.O.W. Playoffs (Post Wild-Card Plays Here or follow the contenders!)

[DaveTuley]

OK, here we go with the playoff thread for the P.O.W. contest for the 2021-22 season. We had a record 27 qualifiers this season (compared to 12 last year!) who earned 10 points (1 point per win, half-point per push, plus a 2-point bonus in Week 18) during the regular season, so congrats are in order just for making the playoffs. Since the field is so big, unlike last year when we used 1 thread for the whole playoffs, we're going to make separate threads for each round starting with this wild-card thread. Please read all the rules carefully!

As we made clear in the Week 1 thread at the start of the season, these players now use their number of points as units in the playoffs. We keep this as a P.O.W. contest as you make just 1 play per weekend (with reasoning for your play, please, as that's where most of the followers get the most value from these threads). You can bet a maximum of 5 units (wagers graded at even-money for contest purposes) and only use whole numbers.

I couldn't find where I promised what I was providing as a prize (so please someone send me a link if you find it LMEAO), but barring any change we'll go with the standard 1st-place prize of a 2-night stay at a Las Vegas hotel (sorry, you have to get yourself here), plus dinner for 2 with yours truly, plus a VFV shirt and a $100 online gift certificate to NFL.com goes to whoever has the most units after the Super Bowl (we'll determine a tiebreaker in addition to Super Bowl pick of those in contention when we get to that point -- usually a 2nd pick of the side/total that they didn't use for main pick).

There's always debate about this playoff format as some want to be able to go "all-in" if they so choose, but the main purpose of the P.O.W. threads (started long ago by eandhfred) have always been to give an objective best bet each weekend, and we want this contest to reflect that sensibility and not just have people making wild wagers just to win the contest. People have also said "But if the bets are capped, then if the regular-season leader goes 4-0 in the playoffs, they can't be caught"...to that I say: "WHAT'S WRONG WITH THAT?" If 2HOLLYWOOD2 risks 5 units each week and goes 4-0, he deserves to win. And we also no longer allow teasers or parlays as, again, this thread is supposed to be you giving your best single play of the week. So, here's the updated standings heading into the first round:

2HOLLYWOOD2	15	4	0	15
JIMMYJAM4508	13	6	0	13
JPDAWG	13	6	0	13
JSCHANILEC	13	6	0	13
BIMMERCANDO	13	7	0	13
AZTEC10	12	7	0	12
BUCKY	12	7	0	12
COMPASS ROSE	12	7	0	12
MRVOLO	12	6	0	12
MTHELLER	12	7	0	12
ROCKMAN IN PA	12	6	0	12
SENATOR L	11	7	1	11.5
ARCHIE8	11	7	0	11
DAVEY SHINES	11	8	0	11
DEANO	11	8	0	11
J. HERB	11	8	0	11
PHATMAN 15	11	7	0	11
STEVIEV	11	8	0	11
WINKYDUCK	11	8	0	11
RAY	10	8	1	10.5
BARNSTORM	10	8	0	10
BUCKEYEFAN80	10	8	0	10
CASEINPOINT	10	8	0	10
GENZO	10	8	0	10
ICE TEA 2	10	7	0	10
SEAHAWK RICK	10	8	0	10
TEXAN 73	10	9	0	10

The other difference from the regular season is that you don't lock in your bets at the time you feel you're getting the best line. Instead, we use static lines for the side and total of each of the weekend's games that are posted late Wednesday/Thursday morning (as a concession to make it fair for those who feel they're losing that advantage of being able to line-shop, I'll give the best numbers that have been widely available so far this week. Note: there's a chance both sides could win if a game lands in the middle, but, hey, that happens in real-life betting, too!!!

Here are the lines for wild-card weekend, in which we have 6 games with a change this year with 2 games Saturday, 3 games Sunday and even 1 on Monday night...again, 1 pick, also specify the units you're risking (up to 5, whole numbers only) and a reason you like the play...just like the regular season, the deadline is the scheduled kickoff time of the game you use, so you have until 8:15 p.m. ET/5:15 p.m. PT on Monday in case you miss the earlier deadlines GLA:

Raiders +6.5
Bengals -5.5
Over 48
Under 49

Patriots +4.5
Bills -4
Over 43.5
Under 44

Eagles +8.5
Buccaneers -8
Over 46
Under 48.5

49ers +3.5
Cowboys -3
Over 49.5
Under 51

Steelers +12.5
Chiefs -12.5
Over 46.5
Under 46.5

Cardinals +4.5
Rams -3.5
Over 49.5
Under 50

[mtheller]

2021 NFL POW - 12-points

RISKING 5-POINTS on Cincy -5.5

Cincy is essentially coming off of a bye week and the Raiders once again went down to the wire and playing on a day short week with travel. Cincy went to Vegas and beat the Raiders by 19 in November and are looking for their first playoff win since before text messages were around. Burrows and Chase will have a highlight game and move on easily with a 10+ point win.

[bimmercando]

2021 NFL POW - 12-points

RISKING 5-POINTS on Cincy -5.5

Cincy is essentially coming off of a bye week and the Raiders once again went down to the wire and playing on a day short week with travel. Cincy went to Vegas and beat the Raiders by 19 in November and are looking for their first playoff win since before text messages were around. Burrows and Chase will have a highlight game and move on easily with a 10+ point win.

Nice notes!
I may actually tease them come to think of it.
GL

[Caseinpoint]

POW 10 points
Risking 5 points
49ers +3 1/2
Niners came into form late in the season, while Cowboys have been inconsistent all season. Boys signature win this season came against the Pats and we all saw how NE turned out this year.

[jschanilec]

2021 NFL P.O.W. [13 points]
Risking 5 Points
Philly/Tampa Bay Under 48.5

My initial instinct was to lean Tampa Bay minus 8, but then I saw the weather forecast. Rain with gusty winds on Sunday favor the Eagles run game. I still think Brady and Bucs have enough to pull this one out, but I sense a lot of running the football which means a shorter game and, (hopefully) less points.

[jschanilec]

Well the weather wasn't a factor at all. Had to sweat that one out at the end.

[JIMMYJAM4508]

NFL POW. 13 points

risking 5 points

Bengals -5.5

Raiders had a tremendous season and incredible wins the past 2 weeks to reach the playoffs. Bengals also had some big wins in December while both teams were inconsistent through out the year.
I like the scenario of Cincy being home and catching the Raiders off such an emotional win. Joe Burrow has been amazing in college in must win and playoff games and was amazing in Cindy’s last 2 wins. I think Head Coach finally realized to stop being conservative and unleash this guy. I believe Cincy will blow out the Raiders here, as Raiders big run stuffer Philbon suffered injury in 4th qtr last week and is out. Mixon burrow and Chase all have big days and Cincy Front will pressure Carr into a few turnovers. Cincy certainly can win a playoff game now that Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton are long gone.
Bemgals is a route 45-17, Lay the points!

[rockman in pa]

Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 5 units

Offense with Burrows will be just too much for the raiders defense to handle. When they want to Bengals will just outscore them

Temperature at kick-off is predicted at 31 degrees with a chance of freezing rain. This will only add to raider woes. LV has not played
in a game below 40 degrees this season. Dome temps are usually between 67-70.

It won't be like the Freezer Bowl of January 1981. 9 BELOW at kick off. Bengals won over SD 27-7.
But between the Bengals and the weather it will be too hot to handle for the raiders.

[Mrvolo]

POW 12 Points
5 Units LVR +6.5
LVR on winning roll entering playoffs and Cinny lost 5 of last 10.First time QB do not do well in playoffs and Carr proven.Not going to be blowout and like points in game like this.Got 12 wins by being contrarian and this looks like the play right now.4-0 wins this,let’s enjoy the games.

[barnstorm]

NFL P.O.W. 10 points
5 Units on Buffalo -4
I'm banking on the Bills being pumped up big time at home, after beating the Pats in New England recently. I don't think Mac Jones is quite ready for this stage and Belichick will be conservative again and hope his Defense can win it. Josh Allen's legs might be the difference, extending a few key plays. Brutal cold too. 20-9 Bills.

[Seahawk Rick]

2021 NFL POW - 10-points

WHAT ELSE...5-POINTS on KC -12.5

Ben the rapist goes out with a big ole butt-kicking. The last time they played, Mahomes left the game with 12-minutes left and a 33-3 lead and Kelce wasn't playing. Mahomes says they haven't played a complete game. LOUDness will give the PITT O yet another thing to worry about, as it will be PLAYOFF LOUD. Chefs O has played its best ball the last 4-weeks. T.J. Watt should play the whole game this time, but it ain't gonna be enough to outflank Andy Reid and the tricks he'll pull to confuse the Tin Curtain. The Chiefs have the league's third-best special teams unit. The Steelers don't have the offensive line to protect Ben the rapist, the running game to create long drives or the consistent big-play ability to scare the Chiefs in coverage. KC is 4th in points scored and 8th in points allowed. I hope they beat these bastards by 40.

[JPdawg]

NFL POW (13 points)

Max 5 Points on TOMPA BAY -8

Yes Eggles have been scoring lately but have you seen that schedule? They haven't played a good team since before Veteran's Day. They finished with 5 games, all against the Little Sisters of The Beltway Poor. Of course they looked decent. Who wouldn't? Now young Mr. Hurts gets his first playoff start and I'm going to predict mixed results at best. Since the Dallas home opener, TB has outscored opponents at home by an average of 18.2 points. Bucs are going to try and put this Philly team away early, knowing they may well get a tough revenge game against the Rams next week and go back to the January Frozen Tundra where they flustered the Great Rogers the week after. PHI not a particularly good Dog and have failed to cover their last 3 in that spot. Finally, TB is laying only a point more than they laid earlier this year IN PHILLY. And we get Playoff Brady against a QB in their first playoff game. Seems like value.

Good luck to all (Yikes!?!) Twenty-Six of you!!

[bimmercando]

BIMMERCANDO 13 6 0 13 (typo as not 7 )

Figuring since it will be very cold we'll see what worked for NE 1st time out and a return to their ground game.
Going for the under 44 here.


5 units
Under 44 - D.T. Linemaker

THIS IS FOR NEW ENGLAND AND BUFFALO !!


GULP....33-10 and a whole 4thQ to go.

[DaveyShines]

POW 11pts Buffalo -4 Going to be a frigid game tonight in Orchard Park. Bills are hungry and healthy. Allen has lots of big game experience in his young career while the rookie Mac Jones is making his first playoff start in the coldest conditions he has ever faced. Buffalo will load the box and dare Jones to beat him with his arm. I see a few picks as he tries to force the ball in to some tight spots. Bills cover fairly easily in front of a rabid and delirious fan base.

[DaveyShines]

Forgot to mention that I'm risking the maximum 5 pts.

[Texan 73]

NFL P.O.W. PLAYOFFS
10 POINTS
Dallas -3 (Risk 5 Points)

Football is a game of emotion and psychology, who wants it more and who is coming off of a high or low emotional game. I think these teams are well matched. This could be the best game of the lot. I believe, in this situation, the Cowboys have several pluses on their side. First, they pretty much had an off week while the Niners played a very hard fought emotional game to the wire. Second, I will take Dak over Jimmy G most of the time, not to mention Jimmy's bad hand. Third, Dallas is at Jerry's World with a loud crowd who hasn't seen a playoff game in years. Fourth, Dallas has all of their defense back (such that it is). I see Dallas getting out in front, stopping the Niners run game, and making Jimmy G beat them with his arm (hand). Niners may run out of gas. Of course, since I have always hated the Cowboys and the way my luck has gone this year, look for a Niners blowout. GL to all!

[florabamaboy]

I love your comment about always hating the Cowboys and your handle is Texan 73. ;-) Did Jerry Jones do you wrong? I think you are right though, when everyone is one the 49er's you know that's the wrong side. I also think the Eagles are going to give Tampa a run for their money....They are going to copy the Saints playbook, it would be a major shock but I think they can beat them straight up.