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  • Derby Day Thread

    Starting the thread early. Just one Time runs in the 8th on the undercard and will be tough again. As for the big race as far as the Cox runners go I would look elsewhere.

  • #2
    Right now looking to key Messier.Kind of fits same running style as last year’s winner and if gets to the front early without too much pressure he could hold on.Never worse than second and high Beyer numbers.Originally liked Mo Donegal but post moved me to Messier.Will box them and key Messier.GL

    Comment


    • #3
      Post 1 isn't that bad imo especially with the new starting gate...it's the shortest way around!

      Comment


      • DaveyShines
        DaveyShines commented
        Editing a comment
        Yes Just ask Calvin BoRail and Mine That Bird Bombs away!

    • #4
      Originally posted by senator l View Post
      post 1 isn't that bad imo especially with the new starting gate...it's the shortest way around!
      this is true...also mo donegal has won twice from the # 1 hole including the wood memorial...go todd!

      Comment


      • DaveyShines
        DaveyShines commented
        Editing a comment
        I like a Pletcher exacta box

    • #5
      Looks as if the track superintendent will play a role this weekend, especially on Friday as the forecast is not promising.

      Comment


      • #6
        Might be wet both days. Hope the turf races can stay on

        Comment


        • #7
          I hope everyone here at least gets the free VSiN daily newsletter each morning in their email to keep up on things I'm doing. This week, I'm planning to post my "Team Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes" column on Thursday with our Derby picks along with plays for Friday's Oaks card. I'll then update the file on Saturday morning with the rest of the Derby undercard. GLA

          Comment


          • tonylove
            tonylove commented
            Editing a comment
            How do you get the newsletter emailed to you? Is it free?

        • #8
          Here's our column at VSiN.com: https://www.vsin.com/team-tuleys-tho...-weekend-56-7/

          Comment


          • DaveyShines
            DaveyShines commented
            Editing a comment
            I'm with you DT on your Derby exacta. I'm gonna box the 3 Pletchers with Messier and Happy Jack. GL all.

          • Senator L
            Senator L commented
            Editing a comment
            Good call on Secret Oath - square price too!

        • #9
          Yes, tonylove, the VSiN newsletter is free at VSiN.com/newsletter

          Comment


          • #10

            HAPPY DERBY DAY TO EVERYONE!
            May the Horse be with you- That is the winning horse.


            There is no doubt this is one of the best if not the Best racing days of the year!

            Its been 4 years since Justify won the triple crown. Now we have another fast young phenom with similiar numbers to Justify
            however Taiba will try to win the K Derby in just his 3rd start. Only 2 have tried this in the last 73 years with no good fortune.
            With that - the favorite has won the past 5 of 8 Kentucky Derby`s and 6 of the 10 last winners have been California based.
            The Florida Derby has produced 4 of the last 9 Derby winners. Obviously there is no guarantee of my selections winning
            especially in a 20 horses field. However, I possess a strong successful record in this race. This is the greatest 2 minutes
            in sports and a great betting opportunity.

            6- Messier 8-1..........Wouldnt this be fitting especially being a life long NY Rangers fan! Messier is the horse to beat in my opinion. First of all in 6 career races
            Mark has 3 wins and 3 seconds(Sunday Silence had 2 and 2, so hes sitting in great company) and has never gone off higher than odds of 6-5, nonetheless is a juicy
            8-1 on the moring line so plenty of value here. His speed figures are amongst the fastest in here and we know from above California horses have done extremely well here the past decade.
            His Jockey, Hall of Famer Johnny Velazquez has won the Derby 3 times in the last 5 years alone all in wire to wire fashion,
            so Johnny V is White HOT in this race(although last year Medina was ultimately disqualified). He is trained by the master of this race Bob Baffert although Baffert is suspended
            they moved him to Bafferts former assistant Tim Yakteen, so not so concerned about that. I'm confident Johnny V will get Messier on the lead or close to it, bred by Empire Maker,
            Messier should handle the distance with no problem thus giving him every chance to stamp further greatness to the hockey legends namesake. Sat Morning Odds 7-1.


            12- Taiba 12-1........Making only his 3rd lifetime start, this ultra talented phenom beat Messier last month in the Santa Anita Derby. Guess What? Yes he is also trained by Baffert and running
            in Tim Yakteens barn. The reason I am picking Messier over Taiba this time around are mentioned above and I love Messier`s experience with 6 starts, it was also Messiers`s 1st start off a
            short layoff so i dont believe he was fully cranked where he will be today. In Taiba first 2 starts he has similiar beyer speed numbers to that of the immortal Justify, so you must respect him, and he also
            gets hall of fame rider Mr. Money Mikey Smith.He is lacking racing experience, racing in 2 small fields and now facing 19 rivals which he must overcome, however the speed and talent is there and I do think
            he will be way less than his 12-1 Morning line odds. Finally he is owned by the same owners as Medina Spirit who won Last years Derby than was DQ 10 months later. Medina also passed away earlier this year
            so really emotional for this group. Sat Morning Odds 5-1


            3- Epicenter 7-2.....One of the two Morning line favorites, trained by Hall of fame and the worlds most winning trainer, The Ass Man, Steve Assmusen and ridden by future hall of famer, the Magician, Joel Rosario.
            Epicenter has improved in all starts, has speed, can rate, is coming out of the Louisiana Derby, which seems to be trending as a quality Derby prep especially since they changed the distance to 1 3/16. The knock
            for me is Assmusen is really overdue here as he is 0-23 in this race with a bunch of 2nds and 3rds. At a short price, I am also concerned of the quality of the fields he beat where I felt they were kind of weak, therefore
            I am leaning with the more proven California horses in this race. I was visually impressed with Epicenter being able to rate off the speed in the LA Derby, hes had 6 weeks and should give ASS his best chance to get
            off the schneid. Epicenter also has a win over the Churchill surface Sat Morning Odds 9-2.


            9- Tiz the Bomb 30-1......His trainer won the Belmont at 80-1, the Preakness at 11-1 so if your looking for a live longshot here it is. That is Mr. Ken McPeek(of course I met and shook hands
            with him the summer before he won that Belmont and didnt have a dime on him) The horse with a cool name has experience with 8 starts, has raced in large fields(12 horses average in last 5 starts) and
            has 5 wins- The most wins by any horse in this field, many dont even have 5 starts.. Tiz the Bomb is extremely versatile with a win on dirt, turf, and synthetic. He is coming into this in peak form making his
            4th start of the year, each one much better than the previous one, with 3 excellent workouts since in last win. His numbers and style are similiar to that of Animal Kingdom, so if there is a bit of a pace meltdown
            I believe this one is a beautiful value at 30-1. His Jockey is a BC Classic winning one, and knows this horse very very well with 4 wins in 7 starts in his irons. Brian won the last race yesterday at 35-1.Sat Morning Odds 24-1.

            10- Zandon 3-1........ The Morning line favorite- Not sure why as Epicenter has already beaten him plus has more wins. This is his 3rd start off a layoff for trainer Chad Brown(0-7 in this race). He won the Blue Grass
            in his final prep(the Blue Grass hasnt produced a Derby winner in a very long stime) closing from last place, a tough style in recent years in this race, But he is ridden by the amazing Flavour Flav- Flaven Prat.
            Again, I dont feel he is fast enough, and will use underneath defensively as must respect connections. Sat Morning Odds 8-1


            13- Simplification 20-1....Ridden by the exceptional young stud, Jose Ortiz, This guy has rebounded with a solid win after his 3 previos defeats. He came in 3rd in the Florida Derby and ideally had the wrong set up.
            This is the only horse I want out of that race this year, and today he will get the right set up and Jose is due to win this race one of these years. His trainer came here a few years ago with Gunnerva , so that experience
            should go a long way here. Definetly a throw in at this price. Sat Morning Odds 42-1.


            Longshots to Consider for exotics:

            1- Mo Donegal- 10-1
            2 - Happy Jack 30-1
            5- Smile Happy 20-1
            7- Crown Pride 20-1
            8- Charge it 20-1
            11- Pioneer of Medina 30-1
            14- Barber Road 30-1

            15- White Abario 10-1
            16- Cyberknife 20-1
            19- Zozos 20-1

            Wagering Strategy-
            Definetely feel the 2 California horses are the fastest in here, they just need to get the trip, and they both have great jockeys.


            If You just want to bet to win:

            $40 Win & Place on Messier
            $20 Win & Place on Tiz the Bomb

            If you want exotics make all these plays below for

            $20 Exacta Box 6-12 = $40
            $2 exacta 6 with 3-9-10-12-13 =$10
            $2 exacta 3-9-10-12-13 with 6 = $10
            .50 tri 6-12 with 6-12 with all = $18
            .50 tri 6-12 with all with 6-12 = $18
            $1 tri 6-12 with 6-12 with 1-5-8-9-10-11-13-14-15-16-19 = $22
            $1 tri 6-12 with 1-5-8-9-10-11-13-14-15-16-19 with 6-12 = $22
            .50 tri box 3-6-8-9-12 = $30
            .50 cent tri 6 with 1-3-9-10-12-13 with 3-9-10-12-13 = $15
            .50 cent tri 1-3-9-10-12-13 with 6 with 1-3-9-10-12-13 = $15

            Best of Luck & enjoy the races!

            If you have any question please email or call me at 516 491 3248.

            Comment


            • DaveyShines
              DaveyShines commented
              Editing a comment
              Messier (the hockey player) won 1 cup for the Rangers but he won 5 with the Oilers. Messier (the horse) was bred in Milton, Ontario, Canada at the famous Sam Son farms. If he wins, he'll be the 3rd Canadian bred to do so after Northern Dancer in '64 and Sunny's Halo in '83. Would love to see it.

          • #11
            Speaking of Mine that Bird, Rich Strike struck it rich in a eerily similar way by riding the rail most of the way and coming from way back because of the very hot pace up front. Great to see the little guy win. Second longest shot all time and a horse that was claimed for 30K off his maiden score. Bred by Calumet Farms. His granddaddys were pretty good.

            Comment


            • #12
              Originally posted by DaveyShines View Post
              Speaking of Mine that Bird, Rich Strike struck it rich in a eerily similar way by riding the rail most of the way and coming from way back because of the very hot pace up front. Great to see the little guy win. Second longest shot all time and a horse that was claimed for 30K off his maiden score. Bred by Calumet Farms. His granddaddys were pretty good.
              Yes, a great story. Lot of people knocking him (and how he got in race), yada yada yada, but it's all sour grapes. Give them credit for having their horse peak on the First Saturday in May...that's what they're all trying to do and he beat them fair and square (oh, dear God, don't have anything wrong with his drug test LMEAO)

              Comment


              • #13
                Originally posted by DaveTuley View Post

                Yes, a great story. Lot of people knocking him (and how he got in race), yada yada yada, but it's all sour grapes. Give them credit for having their horse peak on the First Saturday in May...that's what they're all trying to do and he beat them fair and square (oh, dear God, don't have anything wrong with his drug test LMEAO)
                I enjoyed your Ky Derby aftermath article. It’s crazy that people would get discouraged from betting the Derby after the huge long shot. If anything, people should be more encouraged that the big prices still exist, and the big boys can be beaten now and then.

                Comment

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