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WEEK 10 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

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  • WEEK 10 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation


    A pretty quiet weekend, and then DAL decides to screw the pooch by not scoring off turnovers, but letting TENN score off turnovers...Maddening!!!! Stick a fork in the star.

    Quick review…I didn’t see many of the games as I got to some tailgating early before the Seachicken house of horrors that had me punching myself in the head! Ugh.

    SF beat down OAK who is trying to get the #1 pick…PITT got it done at home vs. BALT, and is gonna make some noise in the playoffs…CHI showed that BUFF might not even make the College championship final four….KC took care of CLEVE who might even have more coaches fired this week…CAR is still looking good and took care of TB like a good team should have…MIA finds ways to win, and just hangs around, but will eventually fold up like one of my POW picks…MINN showed they ain’t dead yet, but DET is for this playoff season…ATL is getting a little healthier, and proving they will be trying to stay in the playoff picture…Kickers, effing kickers, DEN doesn’t try to get it closer and it costs them a game to a HOU team that is on a streak…My Seachickens didn’t let LAC score an offensive TD in the 2nd half, but Little Russell threw a pick-6 and still had a shot to win…NE and KC are the AFC bosses right now as Tommy sent GB home, and home for the playoffs most likely.

    Onto the games for Week 10 already. A lot of bigger favorites this week, with one MONSTER one in the KC/ARI game.


    ARI @ KC…I think Mahomes could play left-handed and win this game…This isn’t a BUFF going into MINN situation…This is a team bringing a butter knife to a bazooka fight! When’s the last time you had some Bazooka bubble gum? Each piece brought a new cavity.

    MIA @ GB…GB isn’t totally out of the playoffs, and will take care of a MIA team that hasn’t played great this year, even though they have been winning. GB looked great vs. LAR and pretty good vs. NE.

    LAC @ OAK…Division game on the road…OAK will try to bring some game, and maybe they’ll show some pride unless they have totally checked-out for the season. LAC offense is cranking it up.

    SEA @ LAR…SEA played them close in SEA, but their main RB Carson went out of the LAC game and the offense slowed because of it. If he doesn’t play, I don’t know how they have a chance.

    BUFF @ NYJ…JETS a TD favorite tells you all you need to know about how much disrespect there is for BUFF. Hard for me to put a survivor pick on NYJ, but it would be a pick that would keep a better team on the board for later if you went with them. BUFF might actually think they can beat NYJ and come out with some energy. Too bad their QB situation is worse than watching kindergarten play of Macbeth.

    NE @ TENN…Not sure if NE will be in letdown mode after beating GB, but TENN just doesn’t have the horses to stay with them. Better home team options.


    DET @ CHI…Division game with DET not following up on some of their early season flashes of brilliance. CHI D ranked #5 with DET O at #21.


    CAR @ PITT…Line dropped 3-points off the open. Should be a slugfest, and CAR could steal on in Steelerville.

    ATL @ CLEV…ATL the better team, but going on the road a 2nd week in-a-row. I think they can win, but better options available.

    NO @ CINN…NO might have a little letdown after the big game with LAR…CINN off the bye will be tough at home I feel.

    WASH @ TB…I will only watch this game if I am paid to…Paid a lot!

    JAX @ INDY…I guess you go INDY at home, as JAX seems to be playing games like they don’t count in the standings.

    DAL @ PHILLY…PHILLY off the bye…DAL isn’t able to get a lot of offense going. Only watchable if you’re a fan of either team…Meh.

    Check on weather and injuries, and post news that we can use if you see something of note!

    Good luck!

  • #2
    Week 7 of my Survivor with a twist..ROLL-SURVIVOR-ROLL

    Last week MINN came through, BUT DAL crapped on my parade with my take two teams and bet them on the ML individually, and rollover the winnings, and see how far it can go. Survivoresque, but can take the same team twice!

    $100 Starting wager on each. Gonna try to take -200 or better teams when possible...BUT will go higher than -200 if I don't feel good about the -200 or lower teams.

    WEEK 1
    #1 NE -275 --- to win 36.36
    #2 DAL -140 --- to win 71.40

    WEEK 2
    #1 CAR -290 --- $136 to win $46.90
    #2 NO -280 --- $171 to win $61.07

    WEEK 3
    #1 SEA -145 --- $183 to win $126
    #2 NYJ -140 --- $232 to win $165

    WEEK 4
    #1 TB -195 --- $309 to win $158
    #2 KC -250 --- $397 to win $159

    WEEK 5
    #1 CHI -312 --- $468 to win $158
    #2 HOU -361 --- $557 to win $ 154

    WEEK 6
    #1 MINN -220 --- $620 to win $282
    #2 DAL -300 --- $708 to win $236

    WEEK 7
    #1 ATL -230 --- $903 to win $392


    • #3
      Sorry about your Cowboys pick, they took out 13 in Adam’s 2nd chance, 62 people left. Only 23 people can take KC, so I will probably be on them.


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Tough to go against KC this week...Don't want to leave great teams on the bench when a good chunk of the others can't take them. Gotta play defense too some weeks, but gotta get a W! Good luck!

      • Mrvolo
        Mrvolo commented
        Editing a comment
        My friend who I introduced to Adam’s pool is alive in Adam2 and has left to pick,Gb,Lac,Lar,Ne,No,Pitt and Cin.He used and won withMiami,Denver.I like his chances but do not want to be the kiss of death.GL to you and hope there is a split with him and any VFV members.

    • #4
      one pick left in small pool (500$) and also in 2000$ buyback with30 left and will take GB in both.Just go week to week.


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        It's a pretty good play Volo...I might be on them too...Still pondering.

    • #5
      Beg to differ here. “CAR is still looking good and took care of TB like a good team should have…”
      they lead 35-7 let it get to 35-28 before Fitz
      had a moment and threw an int and Car put it away 42-28. Car were bumbling fools 2 Nd half used all 3 time outs and then had crital delay of game..Their defence is not very good.
      that -7 opening line on Pitt was some kind of error , maybe a small limit $500. Most Vegas &Pinny opened 5 now down to 4.
      i kinda like PITT and made them my POW
      "A missed FG is a turnover " Michael Lombardi
      “The bigger the edge, the fewer the bets we need to verify our strategy.” Jim Makos


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        I can see either team winning Barry...I don't have a good enough feel for it to put a pick on this game with so many others that seem to have a clearer choice of a winner. I will be rooting against CAR as it helps my poor Seachickens if they lose!

    • #6
      Darnold is out this week for JETS...
      Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 11-07-2018, 06:42 PM.


      • #7
        Sorry to hear about your Dallas pick. I rolled off them to KC last week in Adam1 - THANK GOD!!!! Must have been a premonition or a bad taco or something but I will take it. Looking at Green Bay this week as they are tough at home and don’t have as much long term value as a few others. Good luck to everyone this week.


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          I wouldn't have been on DAL as a lone survivor pick in a big pool, but was looking for better ML odds for my rollover deal, that weren't that great really...They should have at least had 10 more points early in that game off the TENN turnovers, BUT they didn't and now I am trying to make the other rollover entry take me to the finish line! GULP!

      • #8
        So I have a question for the smart members on the forums. There are 123 people left in Adam1 which gives an implied value of $1696 per entry at his point. At what point do you start hedging your weekly picks with a ML bet on the opponent? And how much to bet? I don’t want to waste money but i also don’t want to lose and walk away with nothing. Interested in hearing the strategies out there. Thanks.


        • Mrvolo
          Mrvolo commented
          Editing a comment
          It all depends on the betting philosophy of the player.There are many approaches.Mine is just keep playing and if I get down to 10-15 left I look at all players plays and I may edge but take the points if I am on the favorite.That way I could win in pool and also cash.Once I decide to bet $ I am committed to do so every week.
          If you start too early you could go a few weeks where you lose $ bets and find yourself doubling up to win a few hundred.Do you really need that?Also your gambling mind is now divided and you could lose Your sharpness in the pool.
          GL,have fun,enjoy the week leading up to Sunday and keep picking winners.You have a shot at a big payday.Keep us posted.

        • Deano
          Deano commented
          Editing a comment
          Thanks MrVolo! Good points all around.

        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          Deano...Put this out as a forum topic too, and get some more feedback.

          I agree with Volo though, too early to start hedging with so many people left.

      • #9
        Week 10 Survivor Grid...

        KC and GB top the list...NYJ less attractive with Darnold not playing, not that he was on fire, but then again, they are playing BUFF so a high school QB might be able to beat them!

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        • #10
          Adam Pool Summaries...

          In pool #1 there are four sub-500 teams being picked. I can't believe my Seachickens didn't get any picks! They will get boat-raced if Carson the RB, and Fluker the O-lineman don't play, which is doubtful right now.
          ADAM 1 ADAM 2
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          • #11
            NFL Week 10 Weather

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            • #12
              Week 7 of Survivor Rollover. Cowboys lost but the Panthers came through so taking the $555 and placing it on The Monsters of the Midway @-310 to yield $734. GL all.


              • Seahawk Rick
                Seahawk Rick commented
                Editing a comment
                Make it happen Davey!!!

              • Seahawk Rick
                Seahawk Rick commented
                Editing a comment
                Nice hit Davey...I went down in flames! ATL couldn't score on 3rd and 1 in their comeback try, so they deserve to lose. I was going to break the pencil in half and go two picks starting next week if I got through, but D'oh!

                Keep it rolling!

              • DaveyShines
                DaveyShines commented
                Editing a comment
                That's a bummer Seahawk Rick. The Brownies have been competitive nearly all year. Every week is a challenge. Maybe you can try to start another streak next week---there are still 7 weeks left.

            • #13
              The Fantasy Survivor Liz Hurley Pick of the Week issssssssssssssssss...

              GB...Like them at home where the cooler weather, and a much better offense than MIA brings to the table should get them a win. They've lost some games vs. good teams, but MIA isn't a good team, and Rodgers is still able to get GB in the WC hunt if he can have a good 2nd half of the season.

              Lizzzzzy was a very bad girl last week taking DAL...Just score off those early turnovers you dopes and you have a good chance to win. Lizzy needs to be spanked!!!!!

              I'm just pretending that I could buy back in after Week 3! And now, Week 9! LOL

              Week 1: BALT --- (W)
              Week 2: SF --------(W)
              Week 3: HOU------(L)
              Week 4: LAC ------(W)
              Week 5: CAR ------(W)
              Week 6: ATL-------(W)
              Week 7: KC --------(W)
              Week 8: CHI -------(W)
              Week 9: DAL-------(L)
              Week 10: GB

              I bet the sharks even drool...


              • #14
                In the million dollar pool that me and a few others WERE in, the JETS/ATL/NE knocked out quite a few so far from the early games...30%....How you do feel going out with the JETS???! D'OH!

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                • #15
                  I'm not so sure it feels any different whether or not you get knocked out with the jets or in this case the pats or atlanta today. A loss is a loss. Sometimes people get so caught up in a "good" loss on a supposed "good" team that opportunities are missed. I was lucky today to still have the chefs available,yet phoenix made them play all 60 minutes. Had phoenix found a way to get the win I don't think that having picked KC would have made me feel any better just because they were expected to win. The nfl is a random crapshoot more often then not, I just look for a team that I think can get me to next week, be it the chefs, packers, or this week the browns and skins. Just my 2 cents