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Week 1 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

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  • Week 1 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

    Welcome back kids!

    Hope your summer was Covid free, Kardashian free, and you didn’t have a vacation booked a year ago for this summer to Ukraine you won for free!

    If summer is going to end, well, not for you Florida guys like Volo and Mt Heller, we might as well find fun ways to throw our money against the Survivor contest walls and see if anything sticks!!
    I’ll keep my annual diatribe shorter this year unless you use it as a sleep aid.

    Everybody has their way of handicapping games, and those skills will help you here, but in Survivor, you don’t get a second chance with your entry if you lose. There’s no safety net to a bad week like the 5-team ATS contests out there. It’s sudden death every week for 18-weeks…Even more in Adam’s pool, as his goes into the playoffs if there are people left after the regular season. (Adam pool info below for newbies).

    I suggest a few entries to give you some flexibility, and to be able to ham & egg it where you’ll be able to pick the better teams a few times if you manage to stay alive for a few months. Unless you have Volo money, I’d stay away from 20-25 entries like you see in the big money pools. Might be several people that formed a team, but in any given week, how many teams do you really have a lot of confidence in? I have seen people with one entry win.

    That brings me to picking the same team multiple times in the same week. If you have 10-20+ entries, you’ll have to double, triple, and even go 5+ on a single team. It works until it doesn’t, and you get hit by the big favorite taking one in the booty, and poof, you just lost a big percentage of your picks.
    I’m all in favor of the people that do it, as that builds up the pot, and more often than not, they aren’t around to collect any money in the end. Do what you want to do though…Your dough!

    Then comes teams to stay away from when possible…I’d rather have a home team than a road team, and I’d rather have a road team than a division game team. You can’t find a good home team ever week, especially as the season goes on, and Bye weeks kick in reducing the pool of teams to pick from. We’ve seen good teams that are big favorites go on the road (even at home) and lay some big ass eggs as overconfidence can kick in, and the big dog is fired up to take down the perceived double-digit favorite.

    The pools don’t go from thousands down to the teens at the end of the season with people taking the biggest favorites each week, as those upsets that happen many times every year can wipe out 50-60%+ in a single week when a few go down. I’d rather have a colonoscopy every day than be on a giant favorite that loses! Public Service announcement to get one if you haven’t if you’re 50+! If you have 5-10 entries, you probably need to take some of the big favorites, but a steady diet of them will eventually put you in the house of pain! I’m not saying never take them, just don’t make a habit out of it.

    There's 32-teams, and maybe half are considered good, so you're gonna have to take some that have fleas. I feel watching all the games each week helps identify teams considered average at best but start showing some promise after a month or so, and can be used to help fill in some weeks where you might not want to be on the big favorite. I think the new NFL+ gives you ways to watch games on demand, and in a condensed fashion where it only takes 30-40 minutes.


    Mapping…Oh, my dear mapping. I’ve never been a huge fan of it by trying to do it starting Week 1 as soooo many things can happen to a QB or other star players to blow up a map faster than Drew Lock throwing a pick for the Seachickens! To me, the goal is getting to the end of November any way you can, as a good percentage of players are out, and then finding a path to the finish line is something to look at with teams you have left. I was in a pool last year I won some money in that made you do double-picks starting Week 14 depending on the number of players left each week, which got less and less, so mapping was a necessity for me. If you have 3-4-5+ entries, maybe you map one of them for the hell of it. I look at it from the perspective of there are several teams you think might suck early on but surprise you halfway through the season and become viable candidates going into late November and December. 3-5 playoff teams from the previous season usually miss out the following season.

    In the end, with all the studying, and sticking to a strategy (Which I usually throw out the window Week 2, if not sooner!), an effing kicker will ruin your day with a made or missed kick to take a W out of your mitts, along with his brother ‘tipped pass INT’ close behind.

    I start this cockamamie thread each week hoping ideas can get knocked around to help each other with information on injuries, others might not hear of, and tidbits you might hear locally on the hometown team that don’t always make it to the national level but can have an effect a team.
    Throw out teams you like, and eventually pick, but if you can, write a little about why you picked them so we can all get a feel for a game that might not have been on our radar early in the week. Adam’s pool has a Thursday deadline, which makes it tougher when you don’t get to hear the Friday injury report, but many pools have Sunday pick deadlines so you can get the most updated info possible before throwing your Survivor dart at the wall.

    If you have strategies that have worked for you, share them if you want. The same goes for websites that help give you information and opinions on games that you feel valuable. I’m starting to look at fantasy information ( No, not Liz Hurley stuff Compass Rose!) that can give some info on player matchups that might factor into a game.

    https://www.survivorgrid.com/ is a good site to see how people in big national Survivor contests are leaning and often trickle down to your pools. Can help you do some mapping too.


    For any newcomers looking to get into a contest (Adam’s) many of us are in, check out the other thread where there is entry information into a pool that runs $100, and will have a $250,000 pot. We’ve had VFVers win some dough in it over the years, and I cashed about 12-years ago, so I’m due! LOL!

    Get teams in as placeholders early in the week. I don’t think VFVers forget to enter teams, but in Adam’s pool it happens for the first few weeks at least where several ‘Missed Deadline” entries show up, and you just have to go huh? Some people like to donate I guess!

    Nice short diatribe, right?! LOL!

    Do it your way, and hopefully you get a Happy New Years with some Survivor cheese in your pocket!!

    Let the games begin! Release the hounds! Don't let your kids watch the Seahawks this year...SCARY!

    Good luck! We ALL need it!!!!
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-04-2022, 10:06 PM.

  • #2
    GAME TIME...

    Oh, Week 1, with many teams we have no idea of how they'll come out of the gate, and we can only hope to get through the week with most of our picks left, if not all. We have ideas of the good teams, but those 2nd tier ones that can bite you in the ass are the ones to try to ferret out.

    Coaches have all off season to focus on game one, and keeping TO's to a minimum is key. Training camp injuries play a roll too, like with TB losing three of their starting O-linemen making Tommy rethink the whole retirement thing! The wife is on his ass too it seems...Maybe that's redundant for all you married guys out there!

    I haven't been laser-focused on my homework yet, but here's a few games to look at this week as possible picks. Let's kick them around, and give your reasons you like or don't like some of the teams and who might be a possible upset candidate.

    [email protected]Mr. Lance has the keys to the luxury car and a very good, and healthy team with a great D around him that should give them a good shot to go on the road and find their first W. Mr. Fields is still unproven in my mind, and has less weapons to support him and he needs to be at his best to stay in it.

    [email protected]Mr. Burrow has shown his grit, and now has an upgraded O-Line to try to keep him off his back most of the game. PITT has Trubisky, who takes over for Ben the rapist that was slower than Volo in a 40-yard dash the last few years and needed to be put down awhile ago. Division game, always adds another dimension. IF that isn't a deal breaker for you, they might be worth putting a pick on them.

    [email protected]BALT will be healthy, unlike last year when they were down to their 10th RB early in the season. Lamar is still trying to get a new contract done as of this writing, but he'll come out firing whatever happens. They are rock solid, and NYJ is still the question mark they always seem to be. Some reports have Zach Wilson possibly starting at QB Sunday...Seems dicey, Flacco gets the nod if they decide not to rush Wilson into the mix off his knee injury. BALT is worth a thought.

    [email protected]Well, Matty Ice now is on a team with a lot of weapons, and should be able to get INDY to the playoffs this season. They start vs. a HOU team in flux and General (David) Mills at QB is not going to strike much fear in many defensives. INDY will be one of the favorite picks for good reason.

    [email protected]Compass Rose can weigh in on this one as he's our NY Football Giants expert. King Henry is ready to roll, and was a part of good Titans team last year. If they keep their level of play, it might be a tough start for Danny Dimes and company.

    [email protected]I've been reading how good NO defense is supposed to be, and if Jameis can play solidly at QB, he's got some good weapons to make them a somewhat under the radar team to start the season as TB gets all the press. It's a division game, so keep that in mind.

    [email protected]Some think with Tyreek Hill gone to Fishville, now has made KC an lesser team...Umm, Pat Mahomes didn't leave that I heard about, and they worked on the D through the draft haul they got from MIA, and if that gets better, no reason to think they won't be vying for a SB berth. Oh to have a BUFFC AFC Championship game again. I'm just not sold on ARI and Kyler. Good, but can't raise their game enough to get over the hump. Might be on KC...

    [email protected]Oh my...The Seachickens with Geno Smith leading the hens vs Little Russy and his Broncos. On paper, this leans hard to DEN. Hard for me to take DEN as I'll be at the game and would love to see us find a way to be send Wilson packing. I know, just drink a lot before and during the game to make seem like it's a dream! I don't blame anyone for taking DEN, as it sets up for them to beat a SEA team in rebuild mode. SEA is also wearing the human highlighter uniforms. Anything can happen as we well know, and Russell now has to deal with the noise of the 12's. He might quiet them down fast.

    Get some placeholders in!

    In Adam's pool, you can't take the TNF game and the deadline is Saturday. I wish he'd do that all year long. I don't even bring it up anymore. His monkeys, his circus...

    Throw out your thoughts on games, and lets find some winners to kick us off in the madness known as Survivor!

    Good Luck!!!!
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-05-2022, 08:17 PM.

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    • #3
      Rick, that was your short intro? LMEAO!!!

      It was great seeing you again and hanging at Circa the other day. Another reminder of why I've kept these VFV Forums running so long is the great friends I've made in real life through the site. GL

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        A most lovely day it was Dave, but I really didn't expect to get stuck with the lunch bill! LMEAO!! Oh, yeah, I told you I was gonna buy...Please find me one of the cocktail waitresses phone numbers I can have for her to become my next ex-girlfriend! Great staying in-touch with you all these years, and I'll try to show my mug in your town a little more often going forward. You're a class act, and the real Mayor of LV! My heart is still with the Westgate book, but that damn Circa orgasmitron is a most impressive sports viewing experience! Hope to see you there next wearing a blue jacket! It might be from Goodwill, but what the hell! ;-)

    • #4
      Thanks Rick-- doing " research"

      Dave- PLEASE - consider your reputation-----

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Yeah, it was kind of weird he made me a sit at the opposite end of the booth and left for long periods of time...

    • #5
      SURVIVORGRID.COM

      They don't usually have percentages based off three national Survivor pools until Tuesday, but this was available Monday so put it up...

      I'll post teams with at least 1%.

      Click image for larger version

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      • #6
        Right now I gotta go Capt Obvious and side with Balt and Indy. Tenn losing Brown and Landry on IR plus King Henry coming off surgery and Tannehill is a liability imho SF seems to be dealing with some injuries and Lance might be over-hyped. Seattle and the 12 (including Rick) will be fired up to ruin Russell's return. Only 2 home teams amongst the top picks in week 1 Scary!

        Comment


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          Davey, hard to go against either of them. Good chance I'm on BALT with you, and probably INDY as I have 4-entries going so will need to be on a bigger favorite here and there.

          I get what you're saying with TENN...They aren't giant killers, but against average teams like the GMEN (Said that to poke Compass in the belly) they are better. I haven't read anything about Henry not feeling 100%, and he's gonna be fresh early until he breaks at some point. 17-games is brutal in that position.

          I'm not a Lance lover at all, but the D is pretty damn good, and it's somewhat of a Russell Wilson thing back in the early days where game management was enough to find ways to win, plus a running game. They've got the best backup in the NFL, so we'll see.

          If Geno doesn't totally eff it up, we might have a chance to keep it a game, but not expecting anything great out of the chickens...Hope to be pleasantly surprised, but ready to say 'Its' gonna be a long season' at the end of the night!

        • Mrvolo
          Mrvolo commented
          Editing a comment
          I can see Baltimore pick and I will use them in all my pools.The most obvious pick is Colts and line moved down to 7.Do not see both teams winning and hope I picked the right one.Looks like SF is second pick right now.

      • #7
        Just a Gmen comment
        an absolute no bet this week
        injuries already

        but watch out loving Henry his output down every year and he’s not getting younger

        Comment


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          You're not getting any younger either! LOL!

          I know King Henry takes a pounding, but early season freshness should account for something...Besides, look at the tomato can their playing! ;-)

      • #8
        I make this pick knowing the last time I took a Broncos game in Week 1 I picked against them in this game and I am STILL BITTER about it even though I am a Broncos fan

        THERE WILL BE MASSIVE CARNAGE THIS WEEK! I am 100% SURE OF IT!

        I am not F*****G around this week. If Geno Smith KOs me - so be it. I just can't see the Broncos letting Russell Wilson lose this game.

        Comment


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          I can't root against the Seachickens, but I can see why people will take DEN this week. Nerves early for Russ, but he'll settle in. It will be loud...

        • Aztec10
          Aztec10 commented
          Editing a comment
          Monday Night Footbaall in the great northwest always confounds the football savants. Doesn't the line look a little short for russellmania I? I believe that this is THE game circled on this seattle team's calendar. I think seabirds D is going to blitz russelmania early and often, as I think Coach Carroll believes russellmania doesn't move around the pocket the way he did back in the legion of boom days. To me he looks like one of Seahawwk Rick's favorite former seabird players. Shaun Alexander, aka "the crab" Jamal Adams is going to sack russellmania 3 times minimum, and I see a low scoring dogfight of a game. Poetic justice would have russellmania throw a game ending pick just as his "let's ride" slogan is moving into game winning field goal range. We all remember the "Fail Mary", just saying : )

        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          All sounds good to me Aztec! Weird things happen in that stadium, and Lil Russy will be pressing early. Anything can happen...

          Donkey's Country... Let's Slide!

      • #9
        Baltimore is the most likely team to survive in week 1 of the season. I have not looked at the schedules to see if Baltimore should be saved for a later date.

        Comment


        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          I see 3 more times after Week 1

      • #10
        This was part of of a ESPN Plus article.

        Think big road faves Week 1 is the bottom line.

        --------------------------

        Week 1 always has the most uncertainty and is one of the hardest weeks to pick. Last year, underdogs actually had a winning record (9-7) for the first time since 1983. And over the last five seasons, underdogs win 40% of the time in Week 1, compared to 33% of the time in the rest of the season. That has led to 25% of entrants being knocked out in Week 1 last season and 35% getting knocked out in 2020.

        This year is especially tricky on paper because almost all of the biggest favorites are on the road. But historically, big road favorites have done better in Week 1 than big home favorites. Over the last 15 seasons, home favorites of at least 6 points are 53-14 (.791) while similar road favorites are 13-1 (.929).

        As of Wednesday morning, the 49ers, Colts and Ravens are all 7-point favorites, tied for the largest favorites this week. However, the Ravens are currently being selected more often than the 49ers and Colts combined. With that being the case, and the Ravens having several good matchups in the future, it makes sense to save Lamar Jackson and company for later.
        Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-09-2022, 07:53 AM.

        Comment


        • #11
          I know all is right with the world when I see Rick posting the survivor thread. A fall tradition!!

          Going with Indy, Baltimore and SF in the Adam pool which breaks my home team rule three times….. could be a short season for me, lol.​

          Comment


          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            We'll Deano, the ESPN info points to big road faves being sound picks.

            I've broken rules already myself!

            Good luck!

          • Mrvolo
            Mrvolo commented
            Editing a comment
            Going with Baltimore and SF in all my pools,GL this year

          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            Good luck Volo!!!

        • #12
          Friday survivorgrid.Com
          Attached Files
          Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-10-2022, 07:03 AM.

          Comment


          • #13
            NO
            AND
            COLTS
            Traveling so next week more involved
            if there is a next week lol!!

            Comment


            • #14
              Greetings everyone! Football is back! I have two entries in AB pool and I am going under the radar in popularity by taking Miami and KC. I got my step son in the pool and he's going Colts. Lets get past this week of uncertainty (and also WK 2 to some extent) and then grind through a cash.

              Comment


              • Seahawk Rick
                Seahawk Rick commented
                Editing a comment
                Nice job no joke... Mia with a stress free win.

            • #15
              OK...Busy week with work, and trying to figure out picks along some MAPPING! LOL!

              Going with:

              BALT...Flat out the better team, and catching NYJ without their starting QB, and now starting LT on offense. Lamar is the X-Factor and his running makes the difference in this one.

              SF...Like I've written, I see SF similar to SEA back in the day when a good D and running game can support a young QB, and keep him from having to be a hero. Shanahan knows what Lance can/can't do, and will get him into his comfort zone.

              KC...I know ARI starts fast, then fades, but KC is still a very good team even with Tyreek going to MIA. I'll take Andy Reid and Patty Boy any day over Kyler. Better lines on both sides of the ball IMHO.

              NO...Great D, lots of weapons for Winston to work with = Points. Many coaches still with team, and ATL is a shell of it's former self in rebuilding mode. If Marcus Mariota beats me, I deserve it!

              GOOD LUCK!!!!!!!

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