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Week 2 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

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  • Week 2 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

    HALF OFF ON SURVIVOR PICKS...

    Usually try to get something up and running Monday nights, but I'll be at the Seachicken game hoping it's actually a game!

    Raise your hand if you didn't lose a pick Sunday...Yeah, that's what I thought. IF you got through this weekend unscathed, I bow in your direction, and you should buy lotto tickets! Well done!

    50% of pools went right down the porcelain fixture...Yes, I said 50%!!! Not in my 14-years of doing Survivor pools have I seen such a Week-1 massacre. Made the Red Wedding in Game of Thrones look like a tea party!

    DEN could be another 10% IF the mighty Seachickens pull off a miracle Monday night in the human highlighter unis. From the Circa contest down to Aunt Mable's $1 entry-fee pool, NOBODY was safe from losing an entry or two. Post Traumatic Survivor Syndrome will be in effect until we all get through a weekend without losing a team.

    Circa actually faired better at only 36% knocked out.

    I hope everyone has at least one pick or more, but the wild finishes to the morning games was a continuation of last years playoffs where no lead was safe and picked all our pockets!

    Kickers as always had a say in it. The Saints kicker saved my ass. The CINN kicker might be working at Walmart with his performance even though they say the snapper was part of it all, but not challenging a TD catch cost them. The TENN kicker missed by a few feet to let NYG grab a win, but NYG went for two and got it like coaches should do! CLEVE has a game-winner, and INDY had a game loser, which ended up in a tie, but as we know, ties don't go to the runner in Survivor.

    I had SF, and that was the only loss in each of my pools on my individual entries. Who knew I should have been checking weather reports in September! Lesson learned. NO saved me as I mentioned. KC and BALT gave me comfortable wins. CINN lost on a shared pick.

    What did we learn class? Division games are always dicey. 3 out of 4 were close....Patty Mahomes & Josh Allen are stupid good...The AFC West is gonna be a brutal division...HOU is not as bad as we may think they are...MINN could be in a dogfight with GB for the division with pouty boy Aaron not a happy camper, but it's early. Reeeeelaxxxxx.


    QUICK LOOK...


    [email protected]...I didn't get to focus on CLEV game much, but going on the road is never easy, and they sucked it up to grab a win. JETS showed nothing in BALT game. Worth a look.

    [email protected]...Not the best time to catch LAR coming off the big loss to BUFF. They have extra time off and will be pissy and want to take it out on ATL. ATL didn't embarrass themselves and almost grabbed a W vs. NO.

    [email protected]...Never easy playing at altitude, but HOU will have some confidence going to Mr. 'Let's Ride's' backyard and will give it a go. We'll see how Bronco Russy looks with his new crew in SEA game.

    [email protected]...Division game. I have no idea what CHI might do not playing in a tropical storm. GB will be salty off the MINN loss, and will want to right the cheese wheel.

    [email protected]...Into the lion's den the Titans go. BUFF with extra rest off dismantling the SB Champs. IF BUFF slows Henry down, I don't see how they stay in the game. Home opener for the Bill's mafia will be mega-crazy.

    DAK left the TB game, so see what's up and if he plays vs CINN. Might make CINN a play.

    We can kick them around after we all recover from the blur that was the Sunday early game window...It had us all looking for a window to do a leap out of.

    Over-reaction will run rampant this week as the talking heads build up the winners and blast the losers. Filter out the noise and seek clarity upon the top of a mountain if need be...Or in a hot tub with a JD and coke!

    We fight on. It ONLY takes one pick to get some cash, so stay focused and off the Fireball!

    GOOD LUCK!!!!
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-12-2022, 04:35 AM.

  • #2
    You left out

    AZ @ Vegas: As bad as AZ looked and knowing what the Vegas place will be like - good chance to move on with a team whose FV is not all that strong:
    ARI
    -3.5
    @TEN
    +2.5
    DEN
    -0.5
    @KC
    +6
    BYE HOU
    -9.5
    @NO
    +1.5
    @JAX
    -3.5
    IND
    -2
    @DEN
    +4
    @SEA
    -3
    LAC
    +0.5
    @LAR
    +5
    NE
    -3
    @PIT
    -2
    SF
    +1.5
    KC
    ā€‹
    WTF @ Lions: Nice win for WTF (What I called them when they were WFT) and I'd hate to lose with a shithole team like the Lions in Week 2 but gotta like this pot for the kneecap biters

    Comment


    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      I left them out on purpose as I don't feel they are games to use with so many better options, but feel free to take one of them if you like their chances.

    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      The more I study the LV game, the more sense it makes with W7 the only other obvious place to use them. Will use them in some bets.

      Arizona was called out by the coach, but will it make a difference?

  • #3
    The Indy kicker was a dumpster fire 2 kickoffs he hit out of bounds giving Hou the ball at the 40 and his game winning attempt made wide right look like a paint scraper. I forgot that he was injured last year knee/hip? and may not be right Who knew long snappers were so important but the one for the Bengals had gone 1900 straight error free snaps His loss was felt in the blocked pat and ot miss. Thems the breaks and the Survivor Gods have spoken

    Comment


    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      The extra point snap didn't seem bad, but the FG snap was awful for CINN.

  • #4
    62% out of Adam's pool.

    56% out of Circa.

    62% out of Million dollar pool, which started with 14,518 entries.

    Comment


    • mtheller
      mtheller commented
      Editing a comment
      If Adam1 loses 62% every week, we will be down to 8 after week 6.

    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      Lol!!!!

      As long as VFVers are the 8, I'm all for it!!!

  • #5
    looking for something else to bet on as queen took a big dump on the soccer. what do the over unders look like on bucs saints? feel like could be a high scoring game. feel like brady vs winston is going to be a hell of a match up.
    Last edited by Millertime1; 09-14-2022, 03:33 AM.

    Comment


    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      Miller time... This thread is geared towards Survivor contest teams to pick, not picking sides or totals. I'd start a new topic in the main forum and get some feedback.

  • #6
    SURVIVORGRID.COM

    Well, look who cracked the 1% mark...YOUR DETROIT LIONS!

    I for one am not super confident of that CLEV confidence level at #4...IF they were playing in NY, it would be a pick 'em. Just sayin. Not touching SF either.

    LAR - DEN - CINN - BUFF strong picks IMHO. I'm gonna do some looking at the DET game...

    Click image for larger version  Name:	gridw2.png Views:	1 Size:	48.6 KB ID:	28151
    Attached Files
    Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-13-2022, 07:34 PM.

    Comment


    • Mrvolo
      Mrvolo commented
      Editing a comment
      Thinking games go back to normal and with my one pick will look to what I think is a positive play but will try to stick with the Survivor Rules and not pick the #1pick but root against so not going Rams.More later.

    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      Your rules are your rules Volo... I break mine all the time. You know how I always say try to stay off the biggest favorite if possible, but it doesn't mean you can't take one here and there, but a steady diet of them will put you in the house of pain at some point.

      Easier to take one when you have multiple picks. I might have LAR as one of my picks.

      DEN - CINN - BUFF are on the radar, and even DET possibly as they aren't playing a track star at QB this week. Watched game and Goff looked good along with RB Swift. Many dropped balls and inside kicked in the 3rd qtr for some reason. Could have won.

    • Mrvolo
      Mrvolo commented
      Editing a comment
      More then 1 pick I agree

  • #7
    If any VFVers are interested in selling one of their picks in adams pool please message me

    Comment


    • #8
      Why would anyone want to sell a pick unless you have a few and want to get your stake back.Interested in buyback value.I would say at least 400-500$?

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        I'll sell one of mine for $10,000!

        Yes, hard to peg worth as the potential is 5-figure winnings, but it could also only last you one more week!
        Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-14-2022, 10:39 AM.

    • #9
      Tread lightly for those thinking of taking Detroit. The lions have not been favored in the last 24 games! The last time was in
      Week 11 of 2020. They were minus 2.5 over Carolina.

      By the way they lost that one 20-0.

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        It's a new era for the Motor City Kitties!!!! šŸ˜

        Hurts ran on them, but they looked good on offense except for about 8-drops! Goff was firing it. Swift is a good back.
        Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-14-2022, 11:42 AM.

    • #10
      Someone emailed me going to sell for $500 but i was to slow to reply he had already sold it. Have you seen the board this week? It could be another blood bath. Guessing he wanted to sell one of his picks and recoup entry fees while still having some dogs in the fight. Iā€™m regretting only buying one pick. But i cashed last year on a single bullet

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Just checked out the message board. Keep trying to sell, somebody still might do it. If I had 10 or 12 pics left I would consider selling one but with only three, I want to hang on to my marbles as long as I can.

        I've seen people in Adams pool get to the finish line with only one pick before.

    • #11
      Seahawk Rick...yep, the bloodbath gonna cut down on traffic for these weekly threads LMEAO!!!

      But so to see so many people still alive...I'm down to 2 in Circa Survivor...GLA

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Many on here still have one pick left, but yes, a crazy week it was. I don't think I knew how how many entries you had in Circa Survivor, but good to have two left! I'll split the pot with you! šŸ˜

    • #12
      Bot one for $500. Probably stupid but im hooked on the action after last year

      Comment


      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Take it and run!

        Buy multiple picks in Adam 2.

    • #13
      ADAM's pool has a 5:00pm DEADLINE THURSDAY!!!

      Get placeholders in all of your pools!

      Comment


      • #14
        My Lean As Of Now...

        Gonna stay off LAR...Not that I don't think they'll win, but will stay away from the top favorite when possible if I have other teams I like. ATL played hard vs a good NO team, and everyone will try to give the Lombardi holders their best shot.

        I've got 3-entries in two pools, and this is how I'll fire them as of now. Adam's Thursday deadline shortens the homework window, but alter things in other pools with weekend deadlines.

        BUFF...I'll take the best team in football (Yeah, KC is reallly good too) vs a TENN team that just didn't show much vs a banged up NYG team. Home opener with a lubed up Bill's Mafia will have the house a rockin' and BUFF is on a mission to find their way to Glendale in February. They beat down the SB Champs, and stole one of their best D-lineman to help them shut teams down.

        CINN...A tale of two haves with CINN looking bad in the 1st half, but came back and looked good in the 2nd half and had a shot at the win, but kickers and snappers ended that bid along with a non-challenge that would have given them a TD. Stats were big time in their favor with 33 more plays than PITT, 165 more yards, 8 of 16 in 3rd downs, had the ball 17-minues more. The stat that killed them was 5-TO's. Is that gonna happen again vs a DAL team that looked bad with Dak, and now has Cooper Rush leading them? I'll give a big HELL NO to that one! Burrow is resilient with a gunslinger mentality.

        DEN...Yeah, they lost a game they should have won with two fumbles on the one-yard line. That last happened in the NFL in 1987 in a scab game! Russy is Russy, and now has the live fire most of the DEN starters didn't get in preseason, which will help him and DEN kick it into gear. Very good play calling Monday where DEN ran off tackle and threw to backs out of the backfield at will. Only the coach slowed them down by not letting Russy go for the 4th and 5. HOU showed some fight in the INDY game for 4-quarters, but gave it up in the 4th qtr blowing a 17-point lead, and were lucky to get the tie, which in OT they played for with Lovey deciding to punt with :26 left and 4th and 1 at midfield. Chickenshit decision IMHO. That kind of decision making will help them lose the game. The altitude won't help, and the place gets loud. A tad nervous with this one, but on it as of now. Probably only one other place to use them, and that's W7 vs Jets.
        Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-14-2022, 07:43 PM.

        Comment


        • #15
          ESPN Survivor nuggets...

          Out of the six teams favored by at least a touchdown in Week 2, five lost outright in Week 1 (Rams, Broncos, Packers, 49ers, Bengals). Since 2000, teams favored by at least 7.5 points in Week 2 following a Week 1 loss are 20-2 outright, though they are just 7-15 ATS

          We don't care about no stinkin' spread!


          RAMS Nugget...

          The Rams (-600) are the biggest money-line favorites this week based on the betting lines. However, they are by far the chalkiest pick. Around 30% of entries are using the Rams, significantly more than the other three double-digit favorites. However, given future schedules and confidence to win, I still prefer the Rams over all the other massive favorites besides Denver. Atlanta was blown out in all three games as a double-digit underdog last season and Sean McVay has had extra time to prepare coming off the opening Thursday night game. Over the past 10 seasons (since 2013), teams that play the opening Thursday game are 15-3 outright and 12-6 ATS in Week 2.
          Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-14-2022, 07:46 PM.

          Comment

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