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Week 2 - NFL Survivor Pool Conversation

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  • #16
    Thanks Rick. I agree with your post above which is why I am leaning towards taking the Rams. I do like Cincy too to bounce back and have a good game against a weak Dallas team. My only hesitation on taking the Rams is that I like to avoid the most popular pick each week if I can. I don't see much value for the Rams again until maybe week 5 (Dallas) or week 6 (Carolina). But you know the rule, don't look too far ahead because your aren't guaranteed next week. Other week 5 & 6 options if you take the Rams this week and make it to weeks 5 & 6. Bills and Bucs week 5 and then Packers week 6.

    Comment


    • Seahawk Rick
      Seahawk Rick commented
      Editing a comment
      Agree Pitt.... Not against LAR other than they are number 1 pick.

  • #17
    Lots of options this week but everybody will be a little gun shy. I'm still feeling shell shocked from week1 but thankful I still have a pick left in Adam1. I will be going with Denver who moved the ball vs Rick's Seachickens. 2 lost fumbles at the 1yd line was freaky and I expect them to right the ship at Mile High. Let's Ride!

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    • #18
      Looks like the everybody is running to the windows to cash on the Rams and their QB is selling things on TV.My leader Rick says root against top pick and try to make week 3.With my only pick going with Buffalo.

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      • mtheller
        mtheller commented
        Editing a comment
        I love Buffalo this week. They just have too much future value for me to play that trump card this early. I want to keep that ace up my sleeve until at least week 14.

      • Seahawk Rick
        Seahawk Rick commented
        Editing a comment
        Your leader can lead you off a cliff too!

        I'm on Buff because I have three picks so can use them again if I can hold onto these picks for awhile.

        LAR not a bad pick, and if there weren't several other options, I'd take them without reservation.

        If they lose to ATL, their problems are beyond anything that can be handicapped!

        No such thing as a lock as we all saw last week...

    • #19
      I'm not gonna take DET, but Swift is out of practice again in case you thought of betting them. He was great vs. Philly.

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      • #20
        I may need an intervention. Bengals knock me out of adams pool last week. I buy a pick off someone so im back in and who am i leaning on taking again? The who deys! I want to pass on the rams chalk, not excited about denver as im a Mills Mafia believer, green bay/rodgers attitude scares me, and Buffalo id like to hang onto if i can.

        no way burrow throws 4 picks again right? Right?!?!

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        • Seahawk Rick
          Seahawk Rick commented
          Editing a comment
          I'm with you on CINN with one of my picks. They couldn't have played worse, and yet almost/should have won. DAL played horrible against a very good TB team WITH DAK, so hard to think they'll have much offense unless Zeke runs for 300!

      • #21
        2 and1/3 pick’s left after the week 1 wreck
        trying sf and looking at Cincy or GB


        luck to all

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        • #22
          ADAM POOL SUMMARY...

          Two top picks in LAR and DEN as expected with 4-picks on DET! I was feeling them all week, but RB Swift not practicing gave me pause. I I hear he'll play, I might have a decision to make.

          Click image for larger version

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          • mtheller
            mtheller commented
            Editing a comment
            Damn, missed deadline should’ve sold his pick for $500 instead of giving up!

          • Seahawk Rick
            Seahawk Rick commented
            Editing a comment
            😆

        • #23
          Adam Nuggets...

          One guy/partnership had 20-picks and lost them ALL! Indy-Tenn-SF

          Other people/partnerships with lots of picks went from:

          36 to 15
          25 to 9
          25 to 7
          25 to 9
          20 to 10

          One entry went 10 for 10 all on BALT -- All on DEN this week.​

          Comment


          • #24
            I actually made it thru week one(adams pool) for first time in three years with Baltimore lol so I’m pretty happy about that,I actually was thinking of selling one of my picks but I really don’t know what a good price would be ,I think it holds a ton of value but what is that value lol.
            good luck to all
            Last edited by Captainchaos; 09-16-2022, 10:04 AM.

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            • Seahawk Rick
              Seahawk Rick commented
              Editing a comment
              I saw $500 out there for this week. Not sure of the math to figure that out, but there is a loose formula one of the VFVers can post.

          • #25
            Yeah I was tryin to do mathematics to it but lol then again I got sucked into rams for the week.I’m confident on that but then again it’s the nfl lol

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            • Seahawk Rick
              Seahawk Rick commented
              Editing a comment
              Mtheller is a numbers guy, maybe he'll chime in.

            • mtheller
              mtheller commented
              Editing a comment
              This early in the season any entry is only worth what someone is willing to pay. In week2, you are a fraction better making all 18 weeks than you were the week before, even with 61% of the pool removed. Here are some tidbits to ponder:

              Over half of all survival pool entries were eliminated by the end of Week 4 in every single season.
              In a couple years, survival rates were already below 10% by Week 4.
              The earliest week in any season that the survival rate dropped below 5% was Week 5, during the 2015 season.
              The latest week in any season that the survival rated dropped below 5% was Week 15 in the 2020 season.
              In the majority of years, the survival rate dropped below 1% by the end of Week 14. That corresponds to when a pool of 100 entries would be down to one survivor, on average.

              With that said, there is really no statisical value of an entry until the last few weeks of a season.

            • Seahawk Rick
              Seahawk Rick commented
              Editing a comment
              See Captain, Mtheller always comes through!!!

              I agree... Tough to put a price tag on it, but if you sell, you want a decent profit.

              Good money in Adam 2, so get a few picks going!

          • #26
            My pool allows for one loss so I am still alive

            One caveat here: Look at the Week 3 sked! It could be a bloodbath as bad as Week 1. Especially for those in Circa who need to save teams for T-giving and Xmas "week"

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            • Seahawk Rick
              Seahawk Rick commented
              Editing a comment
              Who are you in Wink?

          • #27
            ELIZABETH HURLEY SURVIVOR FANTASY PICK...

            Lizzy is too busy waiting in the ginormous queue in England to see a box with a dead Queen in it to pay attention to the crown jewel I bestowed upon her with that EASY NO win last week! The Queen never gave her NFL picks year after year that made her a ton of cash. The queen just waved and wore dumbass hats around as she fed her corgis a bunch of beef jerky!

            Gonna ride with Lil' Russy as he didn't lose the game Monday, and two fumbles on the 1-yard line won't happen again until Brent Fave wins the FBI Man of the Year!

            WEEK 1: NO
            WEEK 2: DEN

            My Queen....

            Click image for larger version  Name:	lizw2.1.png Views:	13 Size:	482.8 KB ID:	28237
            Last edited by Seahawk Rick; 09-17-2022, 07:05 AM.

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            • #28
              Good luck Rick. Hope your hawks knock off SF this week. Let GENO cook!

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              • #29
                Week of work travel so late to join the misery thread after week 1. Lost 2 of 3 picks…. Rolling with the Rams this week like many others. Good luck all and on to Adam 2!!!

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                • Seahawk Rick
                  Seahawk Rick commented
                  Editing a comment
                  You only need one entry to get to the money!! 😁

              • #30
                Sailed through WK 1 with both of my entries. Had Miami and KC. They were a combined sub 5% in popularity. This week a little more conservative, to say the least, my entries stand at a combined 34% in popularity. I went GB and Denver. I'm sweating Denver the most of the 2 but have to feel early visit to altitude should give more value here. I was surprised at the number of buyers so early in a season. I'm keeping mine and going to keep grinding. After this week I believe it gets a little easier with more data on each team. Good luck everyone!

                Comment


                • Seahawk Rick
                  Seahawk Rick commented
                  Editing a comment
                  Good luck NoJoke!!
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