2022 VFV NFL P.O.W. Contest Week #18 (January 7-8); Post Selections Here

[gcotton]

This is the thread for the 2022 VFV NFL P.O.W. contest. The following are the rules for this year: 1. All contestants must be a member in good standing with VFV Forums 2. Players make one (1) single play ATS each week during the NFL regular season

3. A correct play results in one (1) point being awarded. A "push" or tie, results in a half point (1/2) being awarded

4. An Incorrect play results in zero (0) points being awarded

5. All lines MUST be taken from the following website each week: www.vsin.com/odds/NFL/

6. All lines must be -110 or less (must be posted on above site...no buying 1/2 point)

7. Only the books listed on this page (except for the Opening Line and Consensus) may be used in this contest.

8. The following selections are allowed: Full Game Side, Full Game Total, First Half Side, First Half Total (NO MONEYLINES ALLOWED)

9. Plays MUST be submitted each week by kickoff of last scheduled game.

10. Plays must be in the following format (or close to it):

2019 NFL P.O.W. (0-0-0 (post your current record here))

Atlanta Falcons +3 (Golden Nugget)
(This is where you will post your reasoning for this selection. It doesn't have to be a book or even a full paragraph, but more than just "I think the Falcons are better.")

11. Myself, Seahawk Rick (the artist formerly known as Cybergolf) or any other I deem so, will have final ruling on if a play is valid (ie: Wrong line, Wrong Book, Not enough reasoning given, etc)

12. The first couple of weeks I will give the benefit of the doubt to any newcomers on here...veterans, you know the rules, LMEAO

13. NO EDITING!!! (ironic, as this was edited by DaveTuley LMEAO)...you can't change your pick after you post it as this supposed to mirror the real world where you lock in your bet at the current number...if you need to clarify something in original post (typed in wrong team or line, or forget to cite sportsbooks, etc.), please quote in new post to bring it to the moderators attention

14. Week 18 will be worth 2 points for a correct selection and 1 point for a push.

15. To qualify for the playoff round of this competition, players must have a total of 10 points by the end of the regular season (week 18).

If you have any questions, feel free to ask and best of luck this season!

***ONLY THOSE ENTRIES WITH AT LEAST 8 POINTS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE STANDINGS AND ALLOWED TO CONTINUE IN THIS YEARS CONTEST***

[gcotton]

Remember that this week's wins are worth 2 points and a push/tie are worth 1 point.

[gcotton]

In Week 17 we went a combined 16-17-1 (47%) ATS

Thru 17 weeks, we are now a combined 434-394-17 (48%) ATS

We are now at 20 playoff entries after adding 8 more this past week!!

After consulting with Dave late Monday evening, we came to the conclusion that the fairest thing to do regarding the postponed game, was to grade those that used either side or total in that game, as a non-playoff, meaning it was like they failed to make a selection. Unfortunately, that resulted in 2 entries being eliminated from moving on to this final week.

Name Win Loss Tie Total
CHAMOINLA 14 3 0 14
JSCHANILEC 12 5 0 12
TARB 12 5 0 12
2 HOLLYWOOD 11 6 0 11
BULLYBEATER 11 6 0 11
GENZO 11 6 0 11
J. HERB 11 6 0 11
JIMMYJAM4508 11 6 0 11
MR. PIXTER 11 5 0 11
NINERUTEFAN 11 6 0 11
PHATMAN15 11 6 0 11
ARCHIE 8 10 7 0 10
BARNSTORM 10 7 0 10
BIMMERCANDO 9 6 2 10
COACHV29 10 7 0 10
DEANO 10 7 0 10
FLORABAMABOY 10 7 0 10
MRVOLO 10 7 0 10
PITTSBURGH 10 6 0 10
RACING CAT 10 6 0 10
TONYLOVE 9 7 1 9.5
AZTEC10 8 7 2 9
BLUEANDGOLD65 9 6 0 9
MR. OUTSIDEVEGAS 9 8 0 9
MTHELLER 9 8 0 9
SEAHAWK RICK 9 8 0 9
TOSPEAK 8 7 2 9
TAKETHEREDEYE 8 8 1 8.5
ASTROID M 8 9 0 8
CASEINPOINT 8 9 0 8
DAVEY SHINES 8 8 0 8
JPDAWG 8 8 0 8
JYV19 8 9 0 8
XAVIER ROB 8 9 0 8
ZJABRONI 7 8 2 8

[jschanilec]

I should be at 13-4. TEN/DAL barely went under the 40.5 total last week. Thanks for calculating all of the records!

[gcotton]

JSCHANILEC.... That is totally on me. I missed it as I was grading last night. It will show as corrected in the final standings next week. I have changed it on my master copy. Best of luck this week, and continued success on one helluva season!

[Seahawk Rick]

2022 POW 9-7 (9-points)

LIONS OF DETROIT +4.5 (Westgate)

Two weeks sitting on 9...One week left, and will go on what I'm assuming will be a number that will go up as 4.5 is almost worthless, but I just feel getting this out of the way early. Love the Kitties, love the coach, love the story. ARod has made himself relative again with being on the doorstep of the playoffs, but feel his BS and karma is going to come back and bite him in the ass as DET is going to play out the underdog to riches script and prove they can play outdoors in a game that might get them into the playoffs IF my beloved Seachickens get their tailfeathers spanked vs LAR. They had a good, good game vs. CHI, and they will take that mo-mo to cheeseville and fire on all cylinders in what is supposed to be cold but dry conditions Sunday as of this posting. GB run D ranked 26th by PFF, and along with a good receiving core, I feel DET will move the ball enough to keep it close and can get the outright win.

[Seahawk Rick]

Effing NFL flexes DET/GB into Sunday night football so IF the Seachickens win, DET has no playoff hopes. Maybe keeping GB out of the playoffs becomes the motivation.

[Seahawk Rick]

And yes, I know if SEA won one more game they would have the playoffs in their own hands. I just want them to get a taste of what feels like for next year when actually expect them to get in the playoffs. They don't deserve to be in, but I'll take it!

[phatman15]

POW 11-6

Browns/Steelers under 39 1/2 (Circa)

I kinda hate laying the game this early, but I might regret doing so if the number continues downward. Both Cleveland and Pittsburgh have been trending under the latter part of the season. Even though the earlier meeting this season went over, I think defense will dominate the day. Pitt's D HAS NOT ALLOWED MORE THAN 17 POINTS SINCE 11/20, and Cleveland's D has only allowed Cincy to score more than 17 over the past six weeks. I already lost a couple of points, and the total continues to slide down. Weather could always be a factor come Sunday in Pittsburgh, so gimme the under. Good luck to all!

[JPdawg]

NFL POW (8-8)

NY Giants +14 (everywhere)

Going to trust the GeeeeMennnn with my Hail Mary. Happy to let former Coug Minshew try to beat me by 2 TDs. Resting players or not, G-Men have to have the foul mouthed taste of getting blown out at home by these Eggles less than a month ago. Can't believe this young coach and these young players want to limp into playoffs having just been hammered twice by their nearest rivals. Don't think Hurts will go or will play much if he goes. After that sad event in Cincy last night, I imagine many players will be cautious this week. Think that might translate more to field position, less explosive game. But who knows, week 18 games rarely go to script. (I'm the fool who might be pleading with the Lions to play for "pride"). I hope Mr. Hamlin has a speedy recovery and continues showcasing his great play.

Go Hawks.

[Mrvolo]

POW 10-7
NE + 7.5 Wynn
First let’s say a prayer for Damar Hamlin and leave it in God’s hands.In all my years never witnessed what I saw last night.
Game means nothing to Bills and hard to see how they can feel like playing.We all know a win by NE and they are in.Even hard
to make a pick right now.

[Mrvolo]

I see this game is off the board right now and when I played it early Eastern time today the line was up.That being said no way do I want to take advantage of a line and would like to cancel this pick.Please advise.I also apologize as I should not have made it under the circumstances,very poor judgment on my part.

[gcotton]

Consider your pick cancelled. I honestly don't think anyone would or will say anything regarding this executive decision. Feel free to make a new selection.

[barnstorm]

If KC loses to the Raiders in Las Vegas on Saturday, the Bills can grab the Home seed with a win over the Pats. So they do have something to play for and may also be playing for Damar. The postponed game could end up hurting KC as Buffalo didn't have to beat the Bengals and then the Pats. Just the Pats. While KC had to beat Denver and now the Raiders. KC favored by 9 but you never know. GL!

[Coachv29]

NFL POW 10-7 (10 pts)
Minnesota -5.5 ( Circa)

Bears are very likely going to sit QB Fields. Vikings will most likely want to get the “stink” off of them from Sunday in Green Bay. Bears also still have a shot at the Home pick, so the gameplay will not exactly be set up to get a victory.
Vikings will be the more motivated team here for sure, so laying less than a TD should be no problem.
Minnesota by double digits here.
GL to all

[barnstorm]

Nice anticipation of Fields sitting. It was just announced and all the Books moved it to -8.

[Coachv29]

Once again I typed the number one and it showed Home…. Not sure why…sorry

[mtheller]

2022/23 NFL POW 9-8 (9-points)

Miami - Pick (westgate)

I am throwing my last egg in the basket and hoping it does not crack before getting to the playoffs. Taking the team with a playoff shot (slim, but a shot no less), a team with more playmakers.......oh, and the team that will probably be starting their rookie 3rd stringer. Skylar Thompson is better than anything the Jets have to offer, and as long as he settles in early, the playmakers around him will get him the W.

[NinerUteFan]

Congrats on a great call!

[jschanilec]

2022 NFL P.O.W [13-4] 13 points

MIN/CHI - Under 45.5 points (Wynn) No Justin Fields means we're in for the Nathan Peterman experience. Unless he throws several pick sixes, I think this total doesn't break 24 points. Minnesota wants to win to have a chance at the Forum seed, but I think they know SF will beat Arizona and give rest to their best players. An ugly game to watch for sure.

[florabamaboy]

2022 NFL P.O.W [10-7] 10 points

Raiders +9.5 (Everywhere).

The Raiders are not going to lay down. Look at last week. They are going to keep this close. They get a couple breaks, who knows???? Maybe a sprinkle on the money line.

[tonylove]

9-7-1
Browns +2 1/2 South Point
Brownies manhandled the Commanders last week and appear to be intent on finishing the season strong. Points look huge here.

[Caseinpoint]

POW 8-9
Steelers -2 1/2 Caesars
Steelers MUST win this game to make the playoffs. I can count on one hand how many times the Browns have beaten the Steelers over the years and things won’t change in this game.

[Archie8]

POW 10-7
Tennessee +6.5 Caesars

Too many points for Jacksonville to cover.
Jacksonville has covered four straight games, but they are 0-3 this season as a home favorite.

Titans have nothing to brag about being an underdog lately.
Lost four straight games outright as an underdog of at least six points (1-3 ATS). (Stats may vary on ATS)
Last 6 games 0-5-1 ATS

Mike Vrabel is 10-4 ATS on extra rest (8-2 ATS since 2019).
Road teams are 31-22 ATS in prime-time games this season (road underdogs: 21-13 ATS).

With Tennessee resting players , the extra time to prepare, and the hook, those are the reasons why I'm taking the Titans to cover.

During the final two weeks of the regular season since 2003, teams with a winning percentage between 40 and 60% that are also 5-to-25% better than their opponent by win rate are an abysmal 48-84-5 against the spread (ATS), failing to cover 64% of the time by 2.7 points per game.
Jags fit this trend along with the the Dolphins, Seahawks, Steelers, Bucs, and Saints for week 18.